Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Retirement
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 08-08-2018, 05:37 AM
 
Location: Williamsburg VA
767 posts, read 1,039,317 times
Reputation: 1225

Advertisements

MSN Money article: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/reti...cid=spartandhp

"In order to better understand this issue, I recently conducted an analysis using a government data set that tracks expected and actual retirement ages over time. What I found is that the most important predictor of early retirement wasn’t related to job stress, physical health, savings, etc.

It was all about the expected age of retirement.

In fact, I found that age 61 was an important bogey for planning purposes, since those who expected to retire before age 61 actually tended to retire at their expected retirement age or slightly later, while those who planned on retiring after age 61 tended to retire early.

The impact for those planning to retire after age 61 was especially pronounced, where people tended to retire about a half-year early for each year after 61 they planned to retire. So, someone who thought she would retire at age 69 actually stopped working at age 65 (69 - 61 = 8 x 0.5 = 4, 69 – 4 = 65)."
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 08-08-2018, 06:41 AM
 
72 posts, read 43,273 times
Reputation: 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by djplourd View Post
MSN Money article: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/reti...cid=spartandhp

It was all about the expected age of retirement.

In fact, I found that age 61 was an important bogey for planning purposes, since those who expected to retire before age 61 actually tended to retire at their expected retirement age or slightly later, while those who planned on retiring after age 61 tended to retire early.

The impact for those planning to retire after age 61 was especially pronounced, where people tended to retire about a half-year early for each year after 61 they planned to retire. So, someone who thought she would retire at age 69 actually stopped working at age 65 (69 - 61 = 8 x 0.5 = 4, 69 – 4 = 65)."
What do you suppose would explain this fact pattern?

My thought is that perhaps those who plan on retiring later are generally more practical and realistic about their situation, have a conservative fiscal plan to achieve it and the plan is actually implemented. Since their plan was conservative (i.e., the rate of return expected on investments), any upside surprise in the market above their expected return would allow for earlier retirement than planned.

On the other hand, those who were thinking of retiring earlier are perhaps generally more idealistic, more about the envisioning the end goal, less conservative in the planning for it and for lack of a better word, "dreamers"? If one doesn't have a sound conservative fiscal plan that is implemented and instead "play it by ear", chances are, things might not work out as idealistically as first thought.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-08-2018, 07:12 AM
 
11,158 posts, read 15,948,818 times
Reputation: 29837
Quote:
Originally Posted by kenwo88 View Post
What do you suppose would explain this fact pattern?

My thought is that perhaps those who plan on retiring later are generally more practical and realistic about their situation, have a conservative fiscal plan to achieve it and the plan is actually implemented. Since their plan was conservative (i.e., the rate of return expected on investments), any upside surprise in the market above their expected return would allow for earlier retirement than planned.

On the other hand, those who were thinking of retiring earlier are perhaps generally more idealistic, more about the envisioning the end goal, less conservative in the planning for it and for lack of a better word, "dreamers"? If one doesn't have a sound conservative fiscal plan that is implemented and instead "play it by ear", chances are, things might not work out as idealistically as first thought.
Are you sure you read the article correctly? The people who expected to retire early (<61) actually did retire at the early age they envisioned. The takeaway from that should be that they had a financial plan to do so and accomplished it. I have no idea how you could come up with your conclusion that they must not have had a sound fiscal plan and were just playing it by ear. In fact, the exact opposite would have needed to be true in order for them to have accomplished their goal of retiring early.

When I graduated from college and began my career, my goal was to retire in my mid-50's and I began putting money away immediately for retirement. And even though I had a job with a pension, I opened an IRA and deposited the max $2k when they first became available to the general public in 1982. I also began contributing the max to a 401(k) when they first became available at my job in 1987. As a result, I was able to retire 8 years ago at the age of 54.

I still have no idea how you could read that people who aspired to retire early and accomplished that goal, and then conclude that things might not have worked out for them as idealistically as first thought. I think it has been pretty ideal myself (other than being diagnosed last year with cancer, lol).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-08-2018, 07:56 AM
 
72 posts, read 43,273 times
Reputation: 105
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadManofBethesda View Post
Are you sure you read the article correctly? The people who expected to retire early (<61) actually did retire at the early age they envisioned. The takeaway from that should be that they had a financial plan to do so and accomplished it. I have no idea how you could come up with your conclusion that they must not have had a sound fiscal plan and were just playing it by ear. In fact, the exact opposite would have needed to be true in order for them to have accomplished their goal of retiring early.

When I graduated from college and began my career, my goal was to retire in my mid-50's and I began putting money away immediately for retirement. And even though I had a job with a pension, I opened an IRA and deposited the max $2k when they first became available to the general public in 1982. I also began contributing the max to a 401(k) when they first became available at my job in 1987. As a result, I was able to retire 8 years ago at the age of 54.

I still have no idea how you could read that people who aspired to retire early and accomplished that goal, and then conclude that things might not have worked out for them as idealistically as first thought. I think it has been pretty ideal myself (other than being diagnosed last year with cancer, lol).
First, let me offer my congratulations on you having planned, implemented and succeeded in retiring early. I am currently planning the same, with retiring in my mid 50's being my goal.

You might be right, but what I interpreted from the article, particularly from this line: "since those who expected to retire before age 61 actually tended to retire at their expected retirement age or slightly later" was that those who planned on retiring earlier, either met the expected date or was slightly later than expected (not earlier than planned). I guess your interpretation was that the majority of those who had planned on retiring earlier had actually done so, with a minority being late?

While the author did not convey the proportion of early retirement planners that was on time versus those who were late. I interpreted (or perhaps misinterpreted) it as perhaps 50%, but you may be right that the majority had actually succeeded according to plan (hard to tell from the article). While not explicit, my comment was geared towards the proportion that h ad retired later than planned.

One question regarding your retirement in your mid 50's. How did you bridge the gap in health insurance coverage from having retired until medicare kicked in? I know some companies offer their early retirees an option of continuing their health insurance, albeit, at a higher (non-subsidized) rate. In my company, that rate is easily 2-3x the rate that an active employee would pay.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-08-2018, 08:11 AM
 
106,098 posts, read 108,073,381 times
Reputation: 79664
i used a silver plan from 61 to 65 . it was a ridiculous price with horrible deductibles .
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-08-2018, 08:18 AM
 
Location: TN/NC
34,911 posts, read 31,023,226 times
Reputation: 47270
Many folks, especially if they have a younger or still working spouse, simply stay on the spouse's coverage.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-08-2018, 08:33 AM
 
11,158 posts, read 15,948,818 times
Reputation: 29837
Quote:
Originally Posted by kenwo88 View Post
One question regarding your retirement in your mid 50's. How did you bridge the gap in health insurance coverage from having retired until medicare kicked in? I know some companies offer their early retirees an option of continuing their health insurance, albeit, at a higher (non-subsidized) rate. In my company, that rate is easily 2-3x the rate that an active employee would pay.
I'm fortunate in that I was able to keep my same employer-sponsored healthcare coverage with BCBS into retirement. Once I turn 65, that coverage will become secondary should I decide to enroll in Medicare Part B.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-08-2018, 08:43 AM
 
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
16,490 posts, read 19,545,867 times
Reputation: 13210
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadManofBethesda View Post
I think it has been pretty ideal myself (other than being diagnosed last year with cancer, lol).
lol?!?!?!?!?!
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-08-2018, 09:16 AM
 
199 posts, read 130,397 times
Reputation: 724
Quote:
Originally Posted by kenwo88 View Post
What do you suppose would explain this fact pattern?

On the other hand, those who were thinking of retiring earlier are perhaps generally more idealistic, more about the envisioning the end goal, less conservative in the planning for it and for lack of a better word, "dreamers"? If one doesn't have a sound conservative fiscal plan that is implemented and instead "play it by ear", chances are, things might not work out as idealistically as first thought.
That's not at all how I read it. Those who planned on working late into their sixties made such a plan to rationalize saving less on an annual basis and by choosing a later date they would also need a smaller nest egg to retire at that point. A large portion of those who make such a plan do not end up working that long, either because of their lack of desire on working that late when the time comes or the more likely scenario in which they did not have the choice to continue to work in their industry (choice was made for them). People whose plans revolve around working into their late sixties are playing Russian Roulette with their future. It's a Double Whammy Fantasy, assuming money will be coming in for longer than its actually likely to be coming in and estimating fewer years you will need post-retirement support.

If at all possible, people should plan to retire early (late 50's), whether they actually do is another story entirely. The important thing isn't actually retiring early just that their financial plan gives them the flexibility to do so. This creates a buffer in your life to withstand what life throws at you (medical issues, elder care, losing your job in your 50's, etc.). If you get to your late 50's and you choose to keep working because of the financial and non-financial benefits, fantastic.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 08-08-2018, 09:38 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia/South Jersey area
3,677 posts, read 2,546,936 times
Reputation: 12467
Quote:
Originally Posted by kenwo88 View Post
What do you suppose would explain this fact pattern?

My thought is that perhaps those who plan on retiring later are generally more practical and realistic about their situation, have a conservative fiscal plan to achieve it and the plan is actually implemented. Since their plan was conservative (i.e., the rate of return expected on investments), any upside surprise in the market above their expected return would allow for earlier retirement than planned.

On the other hand, those who were thinking of retiring earlier are perhaps generally more idealistic, more about the envisioning the end goal, less conservative in the planning for it and for lack of a better word, "dreamers"? If one doesn't have a sound conservative fiscal plan that is implemented and instead "play it by ear", chances are, things might not work out as idealistically as first thought.

I don't think the two are mutually exclusive. My late husband and I were/are "dreamers", We dreamed of retiring at 58 and then we implemented a savings plan to make that a reality.

I admit that I was less conservative but that was because I was young and could afford to be. so just because my savings was probably more aggressive than yours, does not mean we by any means "played it by ear".

I'm retiring in 15 months God willing. I'll be 58. now I'm a January baby so I may stick it out a few extra months to 59 but we set goals and hit most of them. alot we did not but again we simply reevaluate when life threw curve balls.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Retirement

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top