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Old 11-17-2018, 07:13 PM
 
Location: Florida
5,264 posts, read 3,027,962 times
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The politicians would not dare to let it shut down.
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Old 11-17-2018, 07:19 PM
 
Location: Tennessee
23,634 posts, read 17,606,575 times
Reputation: 27701
Quote:
Originally Posted by RJ312 View Post
As a Millennial, I have been paying SS deductions for the better part of 2 decades and counting and there won't be any SS for me when I get to retirement age. How is that a good deal for me? I've wanted to opt out of deductions my entire working life.
SS is a pillar no politician wants to take on. It will be there, but probably in some notably different and less generous form than today.
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Old 11-17-2018, 07:31 PM
 
Location: Ohio
19,949 posts, read 14,256,616 times
Reputation: 16129
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddm2k View Post
Aren't the funds for Social Security now so commingled that it's essentially this big slush fund that other programs can dip into for practically anything?
No. You're quite unfamiliar with the laws and operations of the Social Security Administration.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ddm2k View Post
"The Trust Fund represents a legal obligation of the federal government to program beneficiaries. The government has borrowed nearly $2.8 trillion as of 2014 from the Trust Fund and used the money for other purposes. Under current law, when the program goes into an annual cash deficit, the government has to seek alternate funding beyond the payroll taxes dedicated to the program to cover the shortfall. This reduces the trust fund balance to the extent this occurs. The program deficits are expected to exhaust the fund by 2034. Thereafter, since Social Security is only authorized to pay beneficiaries what it collects in payroll taxes dedicated to the program, program payouts will fall by an estimated 21%."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social..._Fund#Overview
Pukipedia is not an authoritative source on anything, as this proves overwhelmingly:

http://www.city-data.com/forum/53636303-post30.html

This is factually incorrect:

The government has borrowed nearly $2.8 trillion as of 2014 from the Trust Fund and used the money for other purposes.

The government has never, meaning at no time ever, borrowed from the OASI Trust Fund.

The writer of the Puki article is totally freaking clueless.

With the 1939 Amendments to the Social Security Act of 1935, FICA payroll taxes are collected and deposited into escrow accounts established by the Social Security Administration for each pay period.

These escrow accounts are similar to IRS, State and local government escrow accounts for taxes.

Social Security uses the money in the escrow accounts to pay benefits current beneficiaries. If a surplus exists, the surplus is transferred from the Social Security Administration to the General Fund of the federal government, and a special treasury security is issued in the amount of the surplus transferred.

The special treasury security is then held in the OASI Trust Fund.

The special treasury security accrues interest at a predetermined rate, often higher than the interest rates for treasury bills, notes and bonds.

The claim by the Puki author that the government borrowed against the OASI Trust Fund in 2014 is a patently false statement.

In 2014, SSA ran a $39.59 Billion deficit, meaning money was withdrawn from the OASI Trust Fund to cover that deficit.

The federal debt --- there is no such thing as a national debt -- consists of two components, public debt and government debt.

Public debt is about $15 TRILLION, of which 40% is owed to foreign investors, with the remaining 60% owed to State and local government pension plans, private pension plans, State and local governments unrelated to pension plans, banks and insurance companies.

Government debt amounting to about $7 TRILLION consists of the OASI and OADI Trust Funds, the HI (Medicare) Trust Fund, the SMI Trust Funds (Medicare Part B & Part D), railroad employees, government pension plans for government and military employees, the EPA Super Fund and several other Trust Funds, such as those for the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation.

The conversion of the $39.59 Billion deficit for 2014, the $40.2 Billion deficit in 2015, the $65.9 Billion deficit in 2016, and the $64.3 Billion deficit in 2017 was accomplished by transferring the special treasury securities from the government debt to the public debt. It does not increase federal debt.

To actually convert the special securities, the government effectively buys them back with money from the General Fund. If there is no money in the General Fund, the government can cut spending for other programs and use that money, or the government can have the Treasury Department package them as treasury bills, notes or bonds and sell them on the open market to raise the money.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ddm2k View Post
Right but THEIR retirement system doesn't pay SSDI benefits to the disabled who collect for 4-5x longer than they've worked...
Before Eisenhower pulled a Castro and nationalized all 48 State disability programs (Alaska and Hawaii weren't States yet) into the OADI program, you paid taxes on that, too.

The State programs were much more generous than Social Security, recognizing total temporary disability, total partial disability and temporary partial disability, which SSA does not recognize.

If a disabled person only worked 25 years, their benefits are calculated based on 25 years, and not on 35 years, so it's not like they're getting the same amounts people who retired after 35 years of work are getting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Petunia 100 View Post
Do you feel it is likely we will simply stop collecting Fica-SS and cut off all current annuitants?
That's just not going to happen.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GuyInSD View Post
No need to speculate, the Board of Trustees spells it out in their annual report:

"The OASI Trust Fund and DI Trust Fund are projected to have sufficient reserves to pay full benefits on time until 2035 and 2028, respectively...continuing income to the trust funds at the time of reserve depletion would be sufficient to pay 75 percent of OASI benefits and 93 percent of DI benefits."

In other words - as soon as the earliest Gen-Xers reach retirement age (and, conveniently, when Baby Boomers can expect to no longer need to worry about this - given the current life expectancy of about 79 years), the reserves are gone...and those retiring Gen-Xers can expect to collect 75% of what their predecessors received. For Millennials, they can expect to collect 73%.
If you trust the Board of Trustees, and I don't, because they have a clear track record of failing predictions.

The Trustees' projections are based on what they think is the amount of FICA payroll taxes to be collected each year.

The Trustees have always failed, because they continually over-estimate the amount of FICA taxes to be collected, and have done so the last 18 years.

If you collected the projected $714 Billion this year, it will be a banner year, but $804 Billion in 2019?

Really?

We go from $620.8 Billion in 2013 to $646.2 Billion in 2014 to $679.5 Billion in 2015 to $678.8 Billion in 2016 to $706.5 Billion in 2017 to $714.5 Billion in 2018 to $802.4 Billion in 2019?

That is outlandish.

That would only happen if wages jumped 25%-30% and all 6 Million unemployed suddenly got jobs, and another 5 Million people got jobs, leaving the number of unemployed at zero.

You'll be lucky to collect $718-$720 Billion in FICA taxes in 2019.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RJ312 View Post
Throughout the entirety of my working career, I have been unhappy with paying the SS deductions from my paycheck. I wish that Millennials and Generation Z were allowed to opt out of SS deductions. I remember being upset as a teenager about SS deductions. No one in Congress has ever supported the idea.
You wouldn't save squat, and be you'd be having your hand out for a handout.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AlaskaErik View Post
Until 2034. Then what? The younger generations are going to have to pick up most of the bill for the Boomers. Or our SS will be reduced.
They will also be picking up the bill for themselves.

Quote:
Originally Posted by RJ312 View Post
No, Millennials will not get Social Security.
Yes, they will. I'll still be around in 2040 and laughing at you all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vacanegro View Post
Do you really think it wise to refer to the people supporting your SS check in such disparaging terms ?
I don't care what they think. The people living in mommy's basement playing video games are going to want it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vacanegro View Post
Remember when that not-so-silent generation was calling everyone under 30 hippies and commies ? Perhaps you should go back and re-watch Easy Rider and think about your role in making life difficult for others.
Yes, I remember. I've never seen Easy Rider and don't care to see it, since I don't like Jack Nicholson or Peter Fonda, and the reality is the only decent movies that came out of the 1960s was Planet of the Apes, Dr Strangelove and Guns of Navarone, although I do like Mary Poppins and the Sound of Music.
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Old 11-17-2018, 07:43 PM
 
3,423 posts, read 871,324 times
Reputation: 3929
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mircea View Post
No. You're quite unfamiliar with the laws and operations of the Social Security Administration.



Pukipedia is not an authoritative source on anything, as this proves overwhelmingly:

http://www.city-data.com/forum/53636303-post30.html

This is factually incorrect:

The government has borrowed nearly $2.8 trillion as of 2014 from the Trust Fund and used the money for other purposes.

The government has never, meaning at no time ever, borrowed from the OASI Trust Fund.

The writer of the Puki article is totally freaking clueless.

With the 1939 Amendments to the Social Security Act of 1935, FICA payroll taxes are collected and deposited into escrow accounts established by the Social Security Administration for each pay period.

These escrow accounts are similar to IRS, State and local government escrow accounts for taxes.

Social Security uses the money in the escrow accounts to pay benefits current beneficiaries. If a surplus exists, the surplus is transferred from the Social Security Administration to the General Fund of the federal government, and a special treasury security is issued in the amount of the surplus transferred.

The special treasury security is then held in the OASI Trust Fund.

The special treasury security accrues interest at a predetermined rate, often higher than the interest rates for treasury bills, notes and bonds.

The claim by the Puki author that the government borrowed against the OASI Trust Fund in 2014 is a patently false statement.

In 2014, SSA ran a $39.59 Billion deficit, meaning money was withdrawn from the OASI Trust Fund to cover that deficit.

The federal debt --- there is no such thing as a national debt -- consists of two components, public debt and government debt.

Public debt is about $15 TRILLION, of which 40% is owed to foreign investors, with the remaining 60% owed to State and local government pension plans, private pension plans, State and local governments unrelated to pension plans, banks and insurance companies.

Government debt amounting to about $7 TRILLION consists of the OASI and OADI Trust Funds, the HI (Medicare) Trust Fund, the SMI Trust Funds (Medicare Part B & Part D), railroad employees, government pension plans for government and military employees, the EPA Super Fund and several other Trust Funds, such as those for the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation.

The conversion of the $39.59 Billion deficit for 2014, the $40.2 Billion deficit in 2015, the $65.9 Billion deficit in 2016, and the $64.3 Billion deficit in 2017 was accomplished by transferring the special treasury securities from the government debt to the public debt. It does not increase federal debt.

To actually convert the special securities, the government effectively buys them back with money from the General Fund. If there is no money in the General Fund, the government can cut spending for other programs and use that money, or the government can have the Treasury Department package them as treasury bills, notes or bonds and sell them on the open market to raise the money.



Before Eisenhower pulled a Castro and nationalized all 48 State disability programs (Alaska and Hawaii weren't States yet) into the OADI program, you paid taxes on that, too.

The State programs were much more generous than Social Security, recognizing total temporary disability, total partial disability and temporary partial disability, which SSA does not recognize.

If a disabled person only worked 25 years, their benefits are calculated based on 25 years, and not on 35 years, so it's not like they're getting the same amounts people who retired after 35 years of work are getting.



That's just not going to happen.



If you trust the Board of Trustees, and I don't, because they have a clear track record of failing predictions.

The Trustees' projections are based on what they think is the amount of FICA payroll taxes to be collected each year.

The Trustees have always failed, because they continually over-estimate the amount of FICA taxes to be collected, and have done so the last 18 years.

If you collected the projected $714 Billion this year, it will be a banner year, but $804 Billion in 2019?

Really?

We go from $620.8 Billion in 2013 to $646.2 Billion in 2014 to $679.5 Billion in 2015 to $678.8 Billion in 2016 to $706.5 Billion in 2017 to $714.5 Billion in 2018 to $802.4 Billion in 2019?

That is outlandish.

That would only happen if wages jumped 25%-30% and all 6 Million unemployed suddenly got jobs, and another 5 Million people got jobs, leaving the number of unemployed at zero.

You'll be lucky to collect $718-$720 Billion in FICA taxes in 2019.



You wouldn't save squat, and be you'd be having your hand out for a handout.



They will also be picking up the bill for themselves.



Yes, they will. I'll still be around in 2040 and laughing at you all.



I don't care what they think. The people living in mommy's basement playing video games are going to want it.



Yes, I remember. I've never seen Easy Rider and don't care to see it, since I don't like Jack Nicholson or Peter Fonda, and the reality is the only decent movies that came out of the 1960s was Planet of the Apes, Dr Strangelove and Guns of Navarone, although I do like Mary Poppins and the Sound of Music.
SSDI requires less work credits the younger you are when you file.

Under 24: 6 credits, or 1.5 years of work.

62+: 40 credits, or 10 years of work.

And there are 11 more steps, between the two extremes.
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Old 11-18-2018, 08:32 AM
 
18,449 posts, read 20,211,698 times
Reputation: 27010
I dont count on my SS as my retirement living. Itís a nice addition to, but itís not my main source of income in retirement. My mom lives off her SS. If I didnít send her money every month she would be homeless.
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Old 11-18-2018, 09:25 AM
 
Location: Land of the Great Bears
3,498 posts, read 1,924,879 times
Reputation: 3815
Quote:
Originally Posted by ddm2k View Post
Aren't the funds for Social Security now so commingled that it's essentially this big slush fund that other programs can dip into for practically anything?
The money is definitely entwined with other federal government expenditures, if that's what you mean. As others have said, SS surpluses have been used to purchase US bonds. So, one could say that the money is invested in government debt. Is that a problem? Probably not. Seems a bit contrary to our image as a staunchly capitalistic nation though, doesn't it?

Canada has gone another way:

".. Or consider our Neighbors to the North. Canada, after all, has a Trust Fund, but the nature of the fund is radically different: it is a real investment fund, holding a wide variety of assets, including private equity and real estate holdings (they fully or partially own Petco, Univision, and Neiman Marcus, for instance). Their long-term planned asset mix is 55% equities, 20% fixed income securities (largely government bonds) and 25% real estate. (Readers can learn more at the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board website.) In addition to providing a higher rate of return over time than the interest credits of the U.S. Social Security Trust Fund, the very nature of the Canadian fund is wholly independent of the government. "
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Old 11-18-2018, 09:40 AM
 
2,564 posts, read 2,931,095 times
Reputation: 2785
Baring some unforeseen circumstances, I believe millennials will receive some form of SS when they're older and it will be certainly less money than it is today.

My rough guesstimate is that the average amount of the recipient will be about a third of the value that it is today after adjusting inflation. Pretty certain that the qualifiying age for SS recipients will definitely increase for the younger crowd as well.
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Old 11-18-2018, 10:56 AM
 
Location: NYC
2,920 posts, read 1,593,647 times
Reputation: 7964
Of course future seniors will get financial assistance from society, although I suspect it will be reconfigured in some way to bring in more $$$ from workers & pay out a more modest stipend to the retired. Not having SS would be utterly unacceptable for the same reasons it was originally founded: old people who would become destitute & live in squalor, or become homeless on the streets & dying of exposure & malnutrition.

This scenario would tear the society apart much more than a proposed higher earnings cap, tax hike or lesser payout would.
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Old 11-18-2018, 11:18 AM
 
9,216 posts, read 9,286,664 times
Reputation: 28896
Quote:
Originally Posted by GuyInSD View Post
No need to speculate, the Board of Trustees spells it out in their annual report:

"The OASI Trust Fund and DI Trust Fund are projected to have sufficient reserves to pay full benefits on time until 2035 and 2028, respectively...continuing income to the trust funds at the time of reserve depletion would be sufficient to pay 75 percent of OASI benefits and 93 percent of DI benefits."

In other words - as soon as the earliest Gen-Xers reach retirement age (and, conveniently, when Baby Boomers can expect to no longer need to worry about this - given the current life expectancy of about 79 years), the reserves are gone...and those retiring Gen-Xers can expect to collect 75% of what their predecessors received. For Millennials, they can expect to collect 73%.
My program for guaranteeing the solvency of social security is as follows:

1. Raise the income cap, but also raise benefits for those paying more in. However, the benefits will not equal what is paid in.

2. Raise the payroll tax in increments of .15% every year for ten years. (total increase 1.5%) Split this between employers and workers.

3. Gradually raise the minimum retirement age to 70. However,, it needs to be raised very gradually. Perhaps, one year for every decade that passes.

4. Consider giving a lump sum benefit of $25,000--or some other amount-- as a bonus to all employees who put off retirement until age 70.
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Old 11-18-2018, 11:31 AM
 
Location: Podunk, IA
4,046 posts, read 1,826,013 times
Reputation: 4315
Quote:
Originally Posted by markg91359 View Post
4. Consider giving a lump sum benefit of $25,000--or some other amount-- as a bonus to all employees who put off retirement until age 70.
I like this one.
I debate retiring at 70 or not... a $25K spiff would probably make up my mind.
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