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Old 12-25-2018, 08:19 AM
 
9,642 posts, read 4,545,718 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
a safe withdrawal rate is already based on outcomes far worse then this . we have not had anything as bad as the out comes a 4% safe withdrawal rate is based on since the 1960's .

you really need and should do nothing , most of all trying to time things in and out . .

why ? if you miss the biggest gains by being out it can seriously effect the success rate of the money left .

As can missing the biggest losses.
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Old 12-25-2018, 08:20 AM
 
Location: Podunk, IA
3,992 posts, read 1,803,981 times
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I'm not doing anything, but...
My wife had to get some MAJOR dental work done so I withdrew the money from my 401K to pay for it... right at the peak of the market.
I believe the fortunate timing is going to more than make up for the tax hit.
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Old 12-25-2018, 08:30 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
the days of thinking about selling are gone , that was a decision for 4 months ago . today the only decision should be when to rebalance and what to buy with new money ear marked , if that is part of your plan .

That's where I am at. Thinking about buying, a little now and more in 30 days. January could be another brutal month. Expecting negative effects with Mueller report and House talk about Trump subpoenaes. Could be offset with reopening govt.
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Old 12-25-2018, 08:34 AM
 
9,642 posts, read 4,545,718 times
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Originally Posted by FiveLoaves View Post
Meanwhile, the Bosses used the lower Corporate Taxes for Stock Buy-Backs which boosted the profit on their Options.

Rather amusing that they essentially flushed their tax savings down the toilet. Facebook bought back a massive amount of stock at $200-250. I think $5 billion worth.
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Old 12-25-2018, 08:38 AM
 
9,642 posts, read 4,545,718 times
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Originally Posted by Beach Sportsfan View Post
Is not about consensus builder nor strong calls. Instability is what spooks the market and this is where Trump is not a good bet. I donít care what side of the political spectrum you are the coming and goings of his advisors is not ordinary compared to any past presidents.

Trump didn't beome unstable this past summer. The market was all bulls running when he was issuing travel bans and talking about his nuclear button being bigger than Rocketman's.
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Old 12-25-2018, 08:48 AM
 
2,744 posts, read 987,380 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
Trump didn't beome unstable this past summer. The market was all bulls running when he was issuing travel bans and talking about his nuclear button being bigger than Rocketman's.
There are different types of instabilities some affect market more than others do. He was able to make up for those instabilities with the tax breaks which favored those at the top that might invest more.

When you start a back and forth tariff war with China that has a bigger effect on market than NK, couple that with talking about the feds actions, shutdown of government and then couple that with an incoming congress that will be a pain on an already unsteady leader and this happens.
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Old 12-25-2018, 08:49 AM
 
9,642 posts, read 4,545,718 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
the days you buying higher out weigh the days you buy in lower since markets are up 2/3's of the time .

Who cares about an up day or a down day? That's not market timing, that's day trading. 4 of the 10 biggest up days last 30 years occurred in 2008 but that doesn't change the fact you would have been better off to miss 2008. The markets began this year overbought and at historical highs above mean for valuation and debt load. Correction was inevitable and is still isn't corrected.



I agree with the one who said this is political not economic though. Usually big downturns precede recessions but the underlying economy is strong.
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Old 12-25-2018, 08:57 AM
 
71,463 posts, read 71,629,249 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
As can missing the biggest losses.
SO TRUE EXCEPT FOR ONE PROBLEM . which biggest loss days do you want to randomly gamble on not being in on ? you can see that is not ever going to work . there is no way to pick which days they are in advance so you can avoid them ..

so not avoiding the worst days , but staying constantly in for the best days has been shown to work very nicely ..there is nothing to guess at and be wrong about . .

there are no typical retirement time frames or accumulation time frames that span decades that did not end up within 2 percent or so of each other as n average .

so yeah avoiding the worst days is great , providing you guess in advance which days they will be , which is not possible. no action need be taken to catch the best up days .
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Old 12-25-2018, 09:09 AM
 
792 posts, read 210,322 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 1insider View Post
It's worth noting that concentrating on dividend paying stocks means that you must sacrifice diversification. You will by the very nature of dividend investing exclude the eventual biggest gainers.
Not an either/or proposition. Just a big picture commentary on the value of dividend payers and in fact if you view JNJ stock performance, you will note since it did not decrease as much during a bear market, it did not need as much growth in later years and exceeded performance of NASDAQ. Look at the stock performance of JNJ vs. S&P, NADAQ and DOW since 1999 (this does not include dividend reinvestment).

The problem is all the generalities being made about dividend stocks, non-dividend paying stocks, growth stocks, stock price adjustments at x-dividend (which is a snapshot view). This is a wider view of the value of beta, increased shares and drawdown periods; not to mention the panic that sets in during a rapid bear market. As an administrator of a 401(k) plan, I have witnessed the actions of intelligent people during rapid bear markets.

Again, my point is how one would feel about starting distributions during a bear market and which type of investment would best meet their needs.

https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/chart/JNJ.N
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Old 12-25-2018, 09:31 AM
 
Location: Earth
238 posts, read 84,436 times
Reputation: 1013
Quote:
Originally Posted by eaton53 View Post
I'm not doing anything, but...
My wife had to get some MAJOR dental work done so I withdrew the money from my 401K to pay for it... right at the peak of the market. I believe the fortunate timing is going to more than make up for the tax hit.
Exact same thing with me earlier this year. I had dental implants done--might as well buy three yachts! I was able to withdraw quite a chunk, before value plummeted.
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