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Old 12-25-2018, 09:39 AM
 
71,487 posts, read 71,652,652 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Maddie104 View Post
Not an either/or proposition. Just a big picture commentary on the value of dividend payers and in fact if you view JNJ stock performance, you will note since it did not decrease as much during a bear market, it did not need as much growth in later years and exceeded performance of NASDAQ. Look at the stock performance of JNJ vs. S&P, NADAQ and DOW since 1999 (this does not include dividend reinvestment).

The problem is all the generalities being made about dividend stocks, non-dividend paying stocks, growth stocks, stock price adjustments at x-dividend (which is a snapshot view). This is a wider view of the value of beta, increased shares and drawdown periods; not to mention the panic that sets in during a rapid bear market. As an administrator of a 401(k) plan, I have witnessed the actions of intelligent people during rapid bear markets.

Again, my point is how one would feel about starting distributions during a bear market and which type of investment would best meet their needs.

https://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/chart/JNJ.N
posting the same wrong information over and over about withdrawals does not make it any truer . it is all about total return , no matter how it is achieved . ..... you can't count on dividend paying stocks to swing any less today . they can be just as brutal . looking at an exceptional performer like jnj turned out to be in hind site is cherry picking . why not use at&t , gm , citi , kodak , polaroid , ge or any of hundreds of other blue chip dividend payers ?

just use the broad index's like the s&p 500 or a total market fund for a broad non single company lucjk of the draw picture and you will see how the total return is obtained is irrelevant .

what counts when spending down is total return , inflation , rates and most important the sequences of that combo as the gains and losses come in .

Last edited by mathjak107; 12-25-2018 at 09:48 AM..
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Old 12-25-2018, 10:27 AM
 
9,649 posts, read 4,548,107 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
others think they are going to wait for the plunge to end and buy back in . right!!!! by the time they realize it is not a suckers rally as well as there is never a time in the markets we are not waiting for the other shoe to drop , they will likely accomplish little in a positive way as far as effecting their long term outcome . if they got it right this time i would bet every penny they would try it again , get it wrong next time and give it all back .

Well you've certainly established the parameters so that you win no matter the results. If someone gets it wrong, it proves your point. If someone gets it right, you predict some theoretical future and claim that it will prove your point.
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Old 12-25-2018, 10:32 AM
 
9,649 posts, read 4,548,107 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Beach Sportsfan View Post
There are different types of instabilities some affect market more than others do. He was able to make up for those instabilities with the tax breaks which favored those at the top that might invest more.

When you start a back and forth tariff war with China that has a bigger effect on market than NK, couple that with talking about the feds actions, shutdown of government and then couple that with an incoming congress that will be a pain on an already unsteady leader and this happens.

Not sure how you could get more unstable than prospect of a nuclear war. He could call off his trade tariffs at a moment's notice and it would be welcomed by all.
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Old 12-25-2018, 10:34 AM
 
9,649 posts, read 4,548,107 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
SO TRUE EXCEPT FOR ONE PROBLEM . which biggest loss days do you want to randomly gamble on not being in on ? you can see that is not ever going to work . there is no way to pick which days they are in advance so you can avoid them ..

so not avoiding the worst days , but staying constantly in for the best days has been shown to work very nicely ..there is nothing to guess at and be wrong about . .

there are no typical retirement time frames or accumulation time frames that span decades that did not end up within 2 percent or so of each other as n average .

so yeah avoiding the worst days is great , providing you guess in advance which days they will be , which is not possible. no action need be taken to catch the best up days .

Red herring, you don't try to pick days but periods. I agree you cannot pick days. That is day trading not my definition of market timing.
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:39 AM
 
71,487 posts, read 71,652,652 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
Well you've certainly established the parameters so that you win no matter the results. If someone gets it wrong, it proves your point. If someone gets it right, you predict some theoretical future and claim that it will prove your point.
Google how many studiesies were done on this , not my points at all . It is backed with lots of studies. Go a head google how well small investor market timing does and report back
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Old 12-25-2018, 11:41 AM
 
71,487 posts, read 71,652,652 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oceangaia View Post
Red herring, you don't try to pick days but periods. I agree you cannot pick days. That is day trading not my definition of market timing.
Like I said report back on what study after study shows as to the results of trying to do this.. any bets ?

Last edited by mathjak107; 12-25-2018 at 12:12 PM..
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Old 12-25-2018, 04:34 PM
Status: "Disagreeing is not the same thing as trolling." (set 7 days ago)
 
Location: Texas
9,460 posts, read 3,634,340 times
Reputation: 19471
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperhobbs View Post
Wouldn't laddering CD's get a better return? Unless you want to have all the money available, then I see your strategy.
CD ladders do have advantages. I have several of these in my portfolio. People laugh and say they aren't an investment but I'm glad to have them.
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Old 12-25-2018, 07:01 PM
 
Location: Earth
238 posts, read 84,534 times
Reputation: 1013
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
I had 6 implants put in 10 years ago .. 25k . I rejected 3 over 7 years .. had 3 more put in ... I got an infection in the implant canal on one last month and now that one came out . I have to have another put in feb
I hear of rejection so it's scary to hear of such confirmation. I'd just like for things to stay uneventful for such a basic thing as chewing!

Meanwhile, I hope Wall Street gets eventful in a good way.

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Old 12-25-2018, 09:51 PM
 
9,353 posts, read 6,249,009 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
down turns have always been part of the cycle .

this is why stocks are a long term investment . all these returns we get all include them over the long haul and all magically end within about 2% of each other in average return .

think about what went through our heads in 1987 when markets fell 26% in one afternoon .
I agree with you 100%

Nothing has been lost until it's cashed out

That said, at 73, taking the RMD and living on a little more, it feels like it will be a harder wait than back in 87
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Old 12-26-2018, 04:51 AM
 
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
7,609 posts, read 4,680,291 times
Reputation: 27836
We have a simple philosophy: Leave it alone.

We have company stock grants that cost us nothing (except possibly the opportunity for better cash compensation elsewhere), so why panic? I'm thinking that will be the last investment we ever cash in. It's an REIT. I don't mind paying taxes on the dividends.

In a way, we're being forced to act rationally.
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