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Old 01-04-2019, 07:24 AM
 
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yes fear can lead to panic . i would have thought that we would have seen a greater flight to the safety assets . not that 8-9% is shabby in 90 days from long term treasuries and gold . but despite the 147 billion pulled out of equities in december there really has not been a panic run to the safety assets
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:27 AM
 
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
yes fear can lead to panic . i would have thought that we would have seen a greater flight to the safety assets . not that 8-9% is shabby in 90 days from long term treasuries and gold . but despite the 147 billion pulled out of equities in december there really has not been a panic run to the safety assets
Yessir! Let's hope that holds.
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:31 AM
 
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Originally Posted by ncguy50 View Post

The fear you're talking about ... can lead to panic.
It already has.
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Old 01-04-2019, 07:42 AM
 
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not really .. you have a bunch of market timers trying to time things and you have machine selling .

today at 10:28 we are up over 600 with nasdaq up over 3.00%

Last edited by mathjak107; 01-04-2019 at 08:31 AM..
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:36 AM
 
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
not really .. you have a bunch of market timers trying to time things and you have machine selling .

today at 10:28 we are up over 600 with nasdaq up over 3.00%
Of course it’s up, today. But in December there were sure folks out there selling out of panic. I know a few of them.
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:39 AM
 
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there are always those doing the reverse of what they should be doing .

the time to think about selling was 4 months ago . now it is about rebalancing and what to buy . most will not catch the low any way .

this is why so many studies and data shows the small investor as a group do not even match the returns the funds they were in got .

Last edited by mathjak107; 01-04-2019 at 08:52 AM..
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Old 01-04-2019, 08:48 AM
 
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
there are always those doing the reverse of what they should be doing .

the time to think about selling was 4 months . now it is about rebalancing and what to buy . most will not catch the low any way .
I agree with you, I was simply stating that “panic selling” had already taken place.
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Old 01-04-2019, 11:42 AM
 
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Originally Posted by CatPeople View Post
7% drop in one week. Government shutdown, again. In hindsight the worst thing to do in 2008 was panic and sell. Just wait 10 years, and you will be good. I panicked then and moved my 401(k) to one-third cash as an insurance policy against catastrophic failure. Helped me sleep at night.
The key is to build your emergency fund first. I like to over-pad and do a full year of top-line household income so no matter what happens, I don't ever have to sell my stocks at a bad time. I also make sure that all household bills can be paid with two minimum wage jobs - just in case.

I know several people who have only a checking account and a 401(k). This is not a good system. If you need access to additional money, you're penalized. Even if your stocks haven't lost anything, you still did, via fees.
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Old 01-04-2019, 12:49 PM
 
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Originally Posted by ChessieMom View Post
It already has.
i like the panic when we have the melt ups as the shorts scramble to buy back their positions and limit endless losses
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Old 01-04-2019, 01:16 PM
 
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
i like the panic when we have the melt ups as the shorts scramble to buy back their positions and limit endless losses

Me doth think this excuse for extended rallies is overdone. If longs buy pukes, why wouldn't shorts sell puffy rallies?


I am not talking about some guy who gambles on puts in AMZN or NFLX, but professional managers who manage short portfolios and who believe in the fundamentals surrounding their shorts.


Full disclosure, I run a short fund and have been fully short all of 2018. I scrambled for weeks/months, but was up over 100% in October alone. What goes around comes around, and with a nation devoid of leadership and integrity it was only a matter of time before things collapsed..


Ask Doug Kass about buying "bottoms". He got long a week ago and even after todays rally, he still isn't even back to his cost on the stuff he bought two days ago, let alone what he bought before New Years.
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