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Old 12-22-2018, 05:00 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
13,651 posts, read 8,569,484 times
Reputation: 19863

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It has been carefully explain by a couple of people that Trump is causing this downturn.
But the market is up 29% since he assumed office. Down 16% since Dems won in November.
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Old 12-22-2018, 05:05 PM
 
Location: La Jolla
315 posts, read 158,660 times
Reputation: 570
Lots of our limit orders are hitting with the down market. We are still working 6 to 8 more years so we are not worried at the moment. Our financial planner called last night to see if we wanted to put another chunk of cash he is holding into the market. We said we will wait on that for now and reevaluated after the beginning of the year.
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Old 12-22-2018, 05:27 PM
 
1,484 posts, read 414,156 times
Reputation: 858
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
It has been carefully explain by a couple of people that Trump is causing this downturn.
But the market is up 29% since he assumed office. Down 16% since Dems won in November.
We met with our FA yesterday. We are down for 2018, but up overall 9% each year over the past decade.
Have 3-5 years in cash reserves. Still this is very scary for early retirees.
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Old 12-22-2018, 05:51 PM
 
Location: Charleston, SC
1,362 posts, read 766,452 times
Reputation: 2428
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
It has been carefully explain by a couple of people that Trump is causing this downturn.
But the market is up 29% since he assumed office. Down 16% since Dems won in November.

The above is a Classic Example of how choosing the Dates of Reference can skew an argument in any direction. The most recent decline began in early October, way before the historic mid-Term Election blowout -- but by choosing Election Day as a reference point it is possible to create an illusion. The Market really began wobbling back in Feb 2018, just around the time the Dept of Commerce first uttered the word Tariff in connection with Aluminum & Steel from China. Coincidence.....I think not.

Also, it's convenient to ignore the SP500 run-up began around late 2014, but by choosing that reference point you would have to give some credit to the previous administration.....and we can't do that.
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Old 12-22-2018, 05:56 PM
 
71,517 posts, read 71,694,121 times
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Tell me what you want me to show , I can cherry pick a date range .

Statistics can easily be bent and molded to fit any agenda you like ..

Once we saw a commercial about driving under the influence . They said 40% of all accidents involve drugs or drinking . I said to my wife ,see it is safer to drive stoned . The other 60% are straight
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Old 12-22-2018, 06:19 PM
 
897 posts, read 1,521,153 times
Reputation: 1875
At 64 I am 85/15 in the market. Many would say that is much too aggressive but I believe in the market and its potential. I spent my career in an industry that in my opinion gives a great view of the economy and based on what I see all systems are go. The BS associated Trump and his lack of business and market knowledge will pass. Remember he is a real estate guy not a market guy. We will comeback from this burp in the first quarter because as I see it the business market fundamentals are still solid.

My regret is that I am no longer contributing at my prior salary to a 401K at these current dip levels.
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Old 12-22-2018, 06:26 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles
3,538 posts, read 2,232,428 times
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If I knew what was going to happen and what to do about it, I would. Since I don't, I'll just wait it out. I'm only off about 100 grand, so it's not the end of the world. I won't need the money for at least 20 years and at 66 I could easily be dead by then.
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Old 12-22-2018, 08:37 PM
 
6,446 posts, read 3,455,004 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by loves2read View Post
Remember that. You have to file an income tax for. Your. Father's estate
Don''t know your. State's laws regarding how the executor can handle accounts--
Maybe if you are in probate everything is in stasis till probate is over
But would selling to capture loses THIS year be a benefit to the estate?

Have you spoken to an attorney?

Just my butting in

Sorry for you loss--
I lost my dad over ten years ago and still miss him...
I understand what is required. I myself am a CPA, and have a few attorneys assisting, my Dad's attorney and my own. Trust and Estate will file one return with a 645 election. I am working as fast as I can to close the estate. Several people could benefit from the money now, and with tax season for my right on the doorstep I do not want this to linger. The house is under agreement for which I will distribute a bulk of the net proceeds out as I have enough cash to settle the estate, hoping to close early February. I told them the estate is in the house is the largest % of the estate, and when closed they will get money. No probate, beneficiary IRA's set up for my brother and I that will just sit and weather the storm. The estate is <$1mil so under MA requirements to file/pay. It's just the trust investment account that "concerns" me in this market because I wanted to sell/liquidate and distribute soon, and will tap from this to pay outstanding debts of the estate (funeral, attorney, etc. But now with the large market dip I may hold onto the portfolio for 11 months before I determine to sell/distribute or not. It's myself, brother, his 2 kids and my 2 kids in the will. I am transparent with them as trustee/executor, letting them know timelines for expectation. They understand enough about the market. They realize that even though one may need the money now that if one gets a distribution all will (proportionate to the will), so I don't want to jump. And they know combined we lost a decent amount to this current market downturn.
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Old 12-22-2018, 09:08 PM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
13,651 posts, read 8,569,484 times
Reputation: 19863
Quote:
Originally Posted by FiveLoaves View Post
The above is a Classic Example of how choosing the Dates of Reference can skew an argument in any direction. The most recent decline began in early October, way before the historic mid-Term Election blowout -- but by choosing Election Day as a reference point it is possible to create an illusion. The Market really began wobbling back in Feb 2018, just around the time the Dept of Commerce first uttered the word Tariff in connection with Aluminum & Steel from China. Coincidence.....I think not.

Also, it's convenient to ignore the SP500 run-up began around late 2014, but by choosing that reference point you would have to give some credit to the previous administration.....and we can't do that.
The reference point given was Trump. I didn't choose it.
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Old 12-23-2018, 03:35 AM
 
71,517 posts, read 71,694,121 times
Reputation: 49095
Quote:
Originally Posted by caco54 View Post
At 64 I am 85/15 in the market. Many would say that is much too aggressive but I believe in the market and its potential. I spent my career in an industry that in my opinion gives a great view of the economy and based on what I see all systems are go. The BS associated Trump and his lack of business and market knowledge will pass. Remember he is a real estate guy not a market guy. We will comeback from this burp in the first quarter because as I see it the business market fundamentals are still solid.

My regret is that I am no longer contributing at my prior salary to a 401K at these current dip levels.
unless the economy is killed off by stupidity we have a healthy economy . recessions don't come from low unemployment , gdp in the 2-2.50% range , low inflation ,low oil prices , low rates , etc . in fact every modern day recession has come when oil prices were very high .

the chaos in washington will eventually fade and unlike 2008 the fundamentals are strong .


a lot of this is just machine selling and professional deleveraging as market volatility requires more stock selling as prices fall , which causes more stock selling .

this is where poor investor behavior starts to take effect as people panic or try to time things .

the days of thinking about selling are gone , that was a decision for 4 months ago . today the only decision should be when to rebalance and what to buy with new money ear marked , if that is part of your plan .
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