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Old 12-23-2018, 03:43 AM
71,628 posts, read 71,777,271 times
Reputation: 49225


Originally Posted by JustMike77 View Post
If I knew what was going to happen and what to do about it, I would. Since I don't, I'll just wait it out. I'm only off about 100 grand, so it's not the end of the world. I won't need the money for at least 20 years and at 66 I could easily be dead by then.
we are off about 175k- 200k from the highs , i prefer not to look at the balance . ha hs ha

we are retired and run a 40-50% equity model . we don't need to sell equities for more then a decade , as that is the cushion a 50/50 model has built in . . in fact this year we need to add 6 figures to equities when we rebalance next week , when we set a side our years spending money as well .

we do have to take a 5% pay cut next year because we are down . however we use a variable draw method so we had a higher draw the last 3 years than a traditional 4% draw . so the 5% cut is really 5% off a higher draw level then just following the traditional 4% safe withdrawal rate would have had us at .

Last edited by mathjak107; 12-23-2018 at 03:52 AM..
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Old 12-23-2018, 05:39 AM
2,460 posts, read 2,103,785 times
Reputation: 3600
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
unless the economy is killed off by stupidity we have a healthy economy . recessions don't come from low unemployment , gdp in the 2-2.50% range , low inflation ,low oil prices , low rates , etc . in fact every modern day recession has come when oil prices were very high .

the chaos in washington will eventually fade and unlike 2008 the fundamentals are strong .

a lot of this is just machine selling and professional deleveraging as market volatility requires more stock selling as prices fall , which causes more stock selling .

this is where poor investor behavior starts to take effect as people panic or try to time things .

the days of thinking about selling are gone , that was a decision for 4 months ago . today the only decision should be when to rebalance and what to buy with new money ear marked , if that is part of your plan .

Totally agree with this bolded part. Also a previous post about what a shame to not be investing 401 at these depressed prices.

It only matters if you need the $$ TODAY.
I do think the economy is solid but it is disconcerting to say the least to lose this much$$ even if it is only on paper. It definitely does not give me a warm cozy feeling or make it easy for me as a newly retired person -to spend.
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Old 12-23-2018, 06:07 AM
Location: RVA
2,167 posts, read 1,266,787 times
Reputation: 4460
I have a spreadshet where I have recorded and ploted my various investment accounts for the last 16 years. It helps in perspective. Viewing the slope of the line, it is remarkably consistent (though I had hoped for more exponential), and reminds me that the losses are always measured from the most recent high. Compared to just 3 years ago, I am WAY ahead. This year was a bummer, but then again, 2017 was banner. I also had reduced my equity position to just 35% many months ago. I am only down about 4% of my total, so soon it will just be a buying opportunity.
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Old 12-23-2018, 07:26 AM
Location: Charleston, SC
1,362 posts, read 767,627 times
Reputation: 2428
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
The reference point given was Trump. I didn't choose it.
You most certainly did choose it, with your nebulous reference to "carefully explain by a couple of people".
So we should maybe make Trump our Czar for Life so the Market would go up 29% every year ??

In February, when Mueller exposes Trumpovich as a Tax Cheat, a Money Launderer, and a pathological Liar.......we can use that as a reference point. Right now he's a Resigned Man Walking.

The interested Student of the Market should look up how the SP reacted to the last days of the Nixon Administration back in 1973 - 1974. I'll give you a hint....it was down almost 50% and that was with Gerald Ford stepping in, and not Mike Pence.
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Old 12-23-2018, 07:43 AM
1,041 posts, read 485,508 times
Reputation: 1435
Originally Posted by caco54 View Post
At 64 I am 85/15 in the market. Many would say that is much too aggressive but I believe in the market and its potential. I spent my career in an industry that in my opinion gives a great view of the economy and based on what I see all systems are go. The BS associated Trump and his lack of business and market knowledge will pass. Remember he is a real estate guy not a market guy. We will comeback from this burp in the first quarter because as I see it the business market fundamentals are still solid.

My regret is that I am no longer contributing at my prior salary to a 401K at these current dip levels.
I feel the same way. I have even a higher stock allocation and although painful to watch I'm not freaking out. My asset allocation matches my very long term investment horizon as I'm only 52 years old.
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Old 12-23-2018, 08:02 AM
Location: Charleston, SC
1,362 posts, read 767,627 times
Reputation: 2428
Last Christmas, the Market was given a wonderful present with an enormous Corporate Tax Cut, a huge reduction in the higher-end Tax Brackets, a roll-back of the Inheritance Taxes, and a stocking full of other goodies.

There was a trickle of one-time bonus checks for the worker bees. and the appearance of raises in their pay checks. Much of that illusion of a raise in pay was actually a decrease in the with-holding tables......have you estimated your Income Tax for 2018 yet ??

Meanwhile, the Bosses used the lower Corporate Taxes for Stock Buy-Backs which boosted the profit on their Options. All of this largess from Congress resulted in one of the worst Stock Market downturns since the 1930's.

If you are expecting all of this to quickly change in 2019.....I wish you luck.
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Old 12-23-2018, 08:24 AM
51 posts, read 16,123 times
Reputation: 101
Yes folks, it's time to sell the barn and slaughter the cows! It's chaos, time to panic, so tells us the talking heads in the media.

Come on folks, Stock corrections & government shutdowns have occurred in the past and will occur again in the future.
Don't get caught up in the media hyperbole or the political disparagement that follows. Keep an eye on the long run.

Reminds me of the TV weathermen's overboard reporting of the approaching "big storm" that is really just another seasonal snow storm.
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Old 12-23-2018, 10:23 AM
Location: Illinois
257 posts, read 154,481 times
Reputation: 242
Do you see this downturn as an opportunity to buy stock?
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Old 12-23-2018, 10:33 AM
71,628 posts, read 71,777,271 times
Reputation: 49225
since 1871 every downturn has been an opportunity for the longer term investor. in dollar terms even the great depression recovered in 4-1/2 years
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Old 12-23-2018, 11:17 AM
Location: Pennsylvania
12,524 posts, read 4,230,897 times
Reputation: 9838
Panic is what's going to happen if the dow goes below 20,000 in the near future which I personally am putting at a 25% chance. Then you will see panic.
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