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Old 12-24-2018, 03:31 AM
 
71,639 posts, read 71,777,271 times
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markets don't mind climbing a wall of worry but they don't like uncertainty in certain things .

the economy is still doing well and we are likely the strongest world economy today .

but there is a tipping point .

since 1871 every decade or 2 someone in the world does something so stupid that it causes a shock wave that sets off a world calamity ..

we also recover and life goes on but as night follows day that event is always caused by something that really was preventable or self inflicted . .

the problem is most investors at one point or another had the vision of being in position with all this cash ready to buy in . of course statistically they tend to do worse then staying the course because the most influential gain days are really quite few and they tend to happen early on .

so it is rare that someone playing this game with to much cash on the sideline actually makes it worth doing .

about the best benefit comes from just rebalancing in these big drops or just keep doing what you are doing by contributing money . but even then that dollar cost averaging in tends to under perform just lump sum and forget it .

the days you buying higher out weigh the days you buy in lower since markets are up 2/3's of the time .
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Old 12-24-2018, 07:39 AM
 
Location: Proxima Centauri
4,825 posts, read 1,990,474 times
Reputation: 5267
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
a 7% dividend and a loss of 22% ytd , INCLUDING DIVIDENDS is a loss !!!!!!!!

They say that it's impossible to predict market tops and market bottoms. It's not impossible it's difficult. To keep this consistent to what you've been saying, I will say this. Dividends remain constant. Buying Ford and ATT when it looks like stocks are about to go into a long term rise is the best possible situation.
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Old 12-24-2018, 07:49 AM
 
Location: In the land beyond Ohare!
910 posts, read 467,735 times
Reputation: 1990
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
They say that it's impossible to predict market tops and market bottoms. It's not impossible it's difficult. To keep this consistent to what you've been saying, I will say this. Dividends remain constant. Buying Ford and ATT when it looks like stocks are about to go into a long term rise is the best possible situation.
Dividends remain constant? Tell that to the folks that still have GE!
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:04 AM
 
Location: Middle of the ocean
31,680 posts, read 19,984,454 times
Reputation: 45745
-350


Well this is fun.



Not.
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:24 AM
 
4,797 posts, read 11,977,283 times
Reputation: 3453
Quote:
Originally Posted by ConservativesRule View Post
Yah, but the rally was strong until it became clear the left was going to take the House - obviously the investor fear is that they will do something to crash the economy, which is pretty obvious. When have they NOT done something stupid ? The ACA was a recent example and the govt shutdown (over a pittance of a budget request..a rounding error!) is the latest investor fear, because it puts government contracting, and the many F500 businesses that rely on that, "on hold". Investors do not like things that cost businesses (shareholders) money.



The fundamentals are not strong - global growth projections all show large declines in consumer spending. Its the opposite of strong fundamentals. Unemployment is high, not low , because the govt insists on ignoring people that have been unemployed long enough to exhaust UI benefits. News flash, they're not magically re-employed...they're still out of work and now have zero income.

This market might not sell off as much as 2008-2009, but its going to get a haircut. High and tight!



Yes...but only after most people suffered a total loss and wealth was completely restructured. It was a Rothschild musical chairs party.



Here's an exercise...look at the stocks. Are there any that you think are "on sale" right now? Just think of a stock like a shirt in a store, where if you see something you really like and planned to get anyway even though its $50, and its ten bucks, you think, "Hell yes!", and buy three.

Because if you're value investing, which is what you're asking about, that's how you have to feel about it.

If you're not a value investor then it doesn't really matter what the stock prices are. Find a safe harbor - stick with your treasuries and secured bonds and cash.
I talk to and meet with a wide swath of people from lots of different walks of like and I don't know of a single person that is unemployed.
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:26 AM
 
71,639 posts, read 71,777,271 times
Reputation: 49230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
They say that it's impossible to predict market tops and market bottoms. It's not impossible it's difficult. To keep this consistent to what you've been saying, I will say this. Dividends remain constant. Buying Ford and ATT when it looks like stocks are about to go into a long term rise is the best possible situation.
nonsense!!!!!!!!! down 22% including dividends in at&t is no different than down 22% in a growth stock .
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:28 AM
 
Location: Charleston, SC
1,362 posts, read 768,046 times
Reputation: 2428
I believe the Market closes today at 1pm. So if all this chaos is too much for you -- the Minuchin Liquidity Phone Calls over the weekend, the Gubmint Shutdown that will last until the State of the Union Address, the resignations of the Adults in the Room, the big Tech Stocks spiraling lower.........you should report to your Lifeboat Stations at once. This is not a Drill.
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:39 AM
 
817 posts, read 214,967 times
Reputation: 1360
Quote:
Originally Posted by loves2read View Post
Because their share price has dropped significantly...
The question is how long will they continue at that dividend rate

Companies HATE to cut dividends because that in itself can set off share price drops
But just understand that the same dividend from the same company at a higher yield is not a good thing...
Agreed that if the dividend is constant and the yield increasing as a function of share price can be a flag but an investor should look at both components stock price and dividend growth.

For example, JNJ's dividend ten year growth rate (CAGR) of 7.44%; other dividend aristocrats as well. Stock price is now down thus increasing yield but dividend should continue to grow.




https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/JNJ/dividends/history

Last edited by Maddie104; 12-24-2018 at 08:50 AM..
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Old 12-24-2018, 08:50 AM
 
71,639 posts, read 71,777,271 times
Reputation: 49230
total return is all that counts . anyone can create the same draw as a dividend just selling the same dollars from a non div payer or funds . . generating income does not care if the money comes from dividends , appreciation or a combo .

as long as total returns match the balances are identical and the sustainability is identical ..

only dividends are not tax efficient since you are taxed on the entire amount of the dividend . if your total return is from appreciation only the gain is taxed .

at&t is down 22% including dividends ,. it is down more than some of my growth funds .
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Old 12-24-2018, 09:34 AM
 
931 posts, read 828,462 times
Reputation: 2490
Whenever the markets go on an upswing, I move a little bit of money from stock positions in my 401(k) to a money market fund, so that I don't have the possibility of selling in a down market to finance my RMDs. It's been awful hard to keep my hands off that cash, earning 1%, when index funds were up around 10%, but <dang> this little ant feels mighty vindicated right now looking at all the hand wringing by the grasshoppers.

On the flip side, I figured that the slide might be close to the bottom, so bought a couple attractively priced ETFs in my brokerage account, both which immediately plummeted. So win a few, lose a few.

Thank you Steve Mnuchin, and Merry Christmas to you, too.
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