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Old 06-29-2019, 11:48 AM
 
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Originally Posted by NewbieHere View Post
We do our own frames, much cheaper. My husband and I are getting good as a team on stretching the canvas.
If I made my own frames I would still need the $400 order for matboard and glazing. I would also need a decent sized shop with a jointer/planer, router table, chop saw, etc. I would enjoy making a few and I would have more variety than the Nielsen aluminum channel frames I now use.
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Old 06-29-2019, 02:20 PM
 
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So, I tried to do Firecalc using only my fixed annuities and soc security that I plan to take out at 70 (I did not plug in any other assets). I have some annuity income now (age 59), with additional annuities starting at several later ages. Interestingly, Firecalc says that my annuity + SS has never failed in any 61 year intervals, but has failed in 46% of 21 year intervals... so, I will never run out of money if I live to be 120, but (without additional assets) there is about 50/50 chance that I will run out of money if I live to be only 80? Hmmm...
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Old 06-29-2019, 03:26 PM
 
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Firecalc is for stress testing portfolio’s not insurance .....your annuity and ss can never fail ,the payments are forever ...but that does not mean it can pay your bills or meet your income needs on an inflation adjusted basis .... 61 year intervals may very well miss some events ... for instance the high inflation 1970’s won’t come up in many 61 year cycles because the cycles are so far apart .

A standard retirement is usually figured at 30 years , we had 119 on record so far. You have many cycles intersect with lots of different events and outcomes ....60 year cycles are not going to be representative of much nor is there any reason to run them so far out if you are 35
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Old 06-29-2019, 03:33 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Tonyafd View Post
I'm already out. I watched the stock market go sideways since the beginning of the year. I'm waiting for the next oil shock to plunge us into a recession. I've seen the yield curve go inverted more than once since January.


Yes, the S&P 500 is only up 10% in the twelve months ... that is sideways??
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Old 06-29-2019, 07:57 PM
 
1,692 posts, read 608,532 times
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
Firecalc is for stress testing portfolio’s not insurance .....your annuity and ss can never fail ,the payments are forever ...but that does not mean it can pay your bills or meet your income needs on an inflation adjusted basis .... 61 year intervals may very well miss some events ... for instance the high inflation 1970’s won’t come up in many 61 year cycles because the cycles are so far apart .

A standard retirement is usually figured at 30 years , we had 119 on record so far. You have many cycles intersect with lots of different events and outcomes ....60 year cycles are not going to be representative of much nor is there any reason to run them so far out if you are 35

I thought a "failure" is registered by Firecalc when the projected income falls below the projected annual need adjusted for inflation (not when the projected income falls to zero), so it should be irrelevant that annuities and ss keep paying until death. My projected annuity + ss in 21 years (ie, at the age of 80) will not be zero but approximately $115k per year, yet Firecalc says this would be insufficient to meet my annual needs in 46% of all the past 21-year cycles (ie, I'd be as likely as not to need other funds - which is okay, since I have other funds).


I thought when you give Firecalc a timeline of 60 years, it automatically checked for every year within these 60 years, but it obviously doesn't (if it did, it would be impossible to get 100% success at 60 years of retirement, but only 56% success for 20 years with the input of the same income data. How can I get 100% success in 60 years if there is 50% chance that I have failed after 20 years?).



If I give Firecalc the timeline of, say, 30 years, it appears to be able to tell only whether my funds will be adequate in the year 2049, not whether they will be adequate for each year between now and 2049. So, one would need to run a separate Firecalc calculation for each year of the future retirement to figure out how much additional money one needs to reach the 100% probability of success in every year of retirement.
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Old 06-29-2019, 09:02 PM
 
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Originally Posted by mathjak107 View Post
as we discussed in another thread , there is really no benefit to even having cash buffers ...
But there is a Liquidity Preference Function. https://www.intelligenteconomist.com...erence-theory/

Personally, the liquidity I prefer is either an excessively aged single malt whisky, or sometimes an IPA.
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Old 06-29-2019, 09:05 PM
 
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Originally Posted by BOBNCHI View Post
Bear market? I can't wait for the next buying opportunity!
That is timing the market. Attempting to time the market has never been a good strategy.
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Old 06-29-2019, 09:12 PM
 
2,141 posts, read 527,667 times
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Originally Posted by craigiri View Post
We give some nice amounts to the 3 kids yearly ...
Don't forget to file with the IRS. https://www.irs.gov/instructions/i709
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Old 06-30-2019, 02:13 AM
 
71,469 posts, read 71,652,652 times
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Originally Posted by elnrgby View Post
I thought a "failure" is registered by Firecalc when the projected income falls below the projected annual need adjusted for inflation (not when the projected income falls to zero), so it should be irrelevant that annuities and ss keep paying until death. My projected annuity + ss in 21 years (ie, at the age of 80) will not be zero but approximately $115k per year, yet Firecalc says this would be insufficient to meet my annual needs in 46% of all the past 21-year cycles (ie, I'd be as likely as not to need other funds - which is okay, since I have other funds).


I thought when you give Firecalc a timeline of 60 years, it automatically checked for every year within these 60 years, but it obviously doesn't (if it did, it would be impossible to get 100% success at 60 years of retirement, but only 56% success for 20 years with the input of the same income data. How can I get 100% success in 60 years if there is 50% chance that I have failed after 20 years?).



If I give Firecalc the timeline of, say, 30 years, it appears to be able to tell only whether my funds will be adequate in the year 2049, not whether they will be adequate for each year between now and 2049. So, one would need to run a separate Firecalc calculation for each year of the future retirement to figure out how much additional money one needs to reach the 100% probability of success in every year of retirement.
If the ending balance falls to zero that is a failure ....the income being cut is a result of the money failing before 30 years so the draw rate has to be cut to make it through... cutting the draw rate is the solution to the failure.

So a 95% success rate means that out of 100 years, 5 of them would have ended with you running out of money.

So each year gives you the income draw you put in , then at the end of 30 years it looks to see if you ended broke or not .....

It looks at the entire time frame .

But a successful retirement for you probably isn't defined the same way. If you plan to retire at 50 and live to 100, then you have a 50 year time horizon. If you go to your deathbed with $9 in the bank, FIRECalc will call that a successful retirement! But imagine being 99 and seeing your portfolio at $30k, knowing that you need $30k per year to live on. That doesn't feel very successful...

So take these numbers with a grain of salt.

If you go too low or too high in your time horizon your results will show a higher chance of success than what's realistic.

For a time horizon I'd just enter however many years it will take to get to age 95 or 100. I'f I was 30, I'm going to enter 70 in this box. If I entered a 30, my money would only need to last until I'm 60 so I wouldn't really have to worry about running out. If I entered 100, then I'd have such a long time horizon that my portfolio would have so long to recover from any downturn that my success rate would be artificially high..

In your case we have no idea where or how you are entering your numbers but obviously something is not being entered or looked at correctly

Last edited by mathjak107; 06-30-2019 at 03:27 AM..
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Old 06-30-2019, 03:29 AM
 
71,469 posts, read 71,652,652 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elnrgby View Post
So, I tried to do Firecalc using only my fixed annuities and soc security that I plan to take out at 70 (I did not plug in any other assets). I have some annuity income now (age 59), with additional annuities starting at several later ages. Interestingly, Firecalc says that my annuity + SS has never failed in any 61 year intervals, but has failed in 46% of 21 year intervals... so, I will never run out of money if I live to be 120, but (without additional assets) there is about 50/50 chance that I will run out of money if I live to be only 80? Hmmm...
There is a lot here you say that seems to make no sense , especially because you are not entering the most important part ,the portfolio ...that is the part firecalc deals with as it tries to find a safe amount it can contribute to the party at a high rate of success.

Why are you entering 61 year intervals , that makes no sense.. you need to run it for a 30-35 year retirement roughly .. we have had 119 30 year retirement cycles to date .

Did you back out the 75% default equity allocation? What was your spending figure you put in vs portfolio amount ? I will bet whatever you did enter is not correct or correctly entered or just not complete data..already the 61 year intervals make no sense.

First of all the purpose of firecalc is to stress test the portion of your portfolio you will be using to see if it can fill the gap between your social security income ,annuities ,pension ,etc ... it then adds what the portfolio can safely bring to the party and adds it to your other income ..

So if I need 100k and my pension and annuity and ss is 60k ,then my portfolio needs to be able to have a high success rate of providing 40k ...running the numbers through firecalc show for a 30 year time frame a 40-60% equity mix can provide over a 90% chance of filling that gap and providing that inflation adjusted 40k..

Why would you stress test income that is guaranteed ? You already know what the income is and there is near zero sequence risk so something is not making sense ... it is not like fixed income where rates vary and you have sequence risk .....your pension and annuity can never go down , it can only stay the same or go up so I am not sure what the purpose is of running a pension and annuity when the amounts are known and fixed at a min.

Firecalc is for projecting the unknown like markets and rates not the known.

It is like I use bob clyatts variable draw method ...firecalc has a tab for that ....because the draw is based on each years balance I can tell firecalc to look at a 30 ,60, or 80 year retirement and it will always say I have a 100% success rate because being based on each years balance I would never ever run out of money ..you can’t ...

But what does change is the draw and balance as things change but like a pension or annuity I can never outlive the money source. It just may not be enough..

So with these calculators you can never go broke because you always have pension , annuity and ss coming in , only the portfolio can go broke ..so asking firecalc to calculate a success rate on nooooo portfolio , just the known income sources does not seem to make sense...you know your income in this case.... there are no worst case scenarios to have to base a safe withdrawal rate on like you do a portfolio...

Last edited by mathjak107; 06-30-2019 at 04:46 AM..
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