U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Retirement
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 09-05-2019, 10:36 AM
 
Location: Florida
4,496 posts, read 3,829,270 times
Reputation: 4328

Advertisements

This study maybe of interest for those that use SWR.

It shows that for a 25 year retirement you can go way above the 4% rule.

https://www.financial-planning.com/n...=1567700248444
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 09-05-2019, 10:54 AM
 
Location: Haiku
4,759 posts, read 2,758,904 times
Reputation: 6982
Quote:
Originally Posted by rjm1cc View Post
This study maybe of interest for those that use SWR.

It shows that for a 25 year retirement you can go way above the 4% rule.

https://www.financial-planning.com/n...=1567700248444
The so-called 4% rule applies to a 30-year retirement period so of course making the retirement period shorter is going to increase the amount you can spend.


The above study uses only 34 historical sequences starting in 1961. Most studies use 60 or 70 historical sequences which gives much better statistics.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-05-2019, 11:31 AM
 
Location: SoCal
14,048 posts, read 6,718,100 times
Reputation: 10707
Good to know.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-05-2019, 11:33 AM
 
73,278 posts, read 73,051,102 times
Reputation: 50844
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
The so-called 4% rule applies to a 30-year retirement period so of course making the retirement period shorter is going to increase the amount you can spend.


The above study uses only 34 historical sequences starting in 1961. Most studies use 60 or 70 historical sequences which gives much better statistics.
The benchmarks for the safe withdrawal rate is 1907 1929 1937 1965 1966
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-05-2019, 01:18 PM
 
1,089 posts, read 1,135,128 times
Reputation: 1448
The person in the study retired at 70 and had 60% in equities.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-05-2019, 01:24 PM
 
73,278 posts, read 73,051,102 times
Reputation: 50844
Quote:
Originally Posted by rjm1cc View Post
This study maybe of interest for those that use SWR.

It shows that for a 25 year retirement you can go way above the 4% rule.

https://www.financial-planning.com/n...=1567700248444
because the 4% safe withdrawal rate is already based on the worst of the worst times to date anything better is a plus .

it is based on a a 30 year retirement making it through 1907,1929,1937,1965,1966 .

if we rule out the 5% failure rate then the draw rate could be 6-1/2% ...

but because we don't know in advance if we are going to be the poster child for a worst case outcome we need to take raises in steps along the way .. you don' t want plan on more day 1 .

once we have a good bull you can start increasing . there are a few different methods for taking raises
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-05-2019, 02:08 PM
 
73,278 posts, read 73,051,102 times
Reputation: 50844
Here are the results for firecalc for 25 years.. this is at 4% inflation adjusted .

FIRECalc looked at the 124 possible 25 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $1,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 124 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $-376 to $4,041,650, with an average at the end of $1,388,359. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 25 years. FIRECalc found that 1 cycles failed, for a success rate of 99.2%.

Last edited by mathjak107; 09-05-2019 at 02:19 PM..
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-05-2019, 02:33 PM
 
Location: SoCal
14,048 posts, read 6,718,100 times
Reputation: 10707
Good, I feel better and will keep the hotel room with a view at the Lake District. My husband suggested the room. So I might as well blow the dough.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-05-2019, 06:36 PM
 
8,182 posts, read 5,183,409 times
Reputation: 13955
Withdrawl rate increases as we move further south. Withdrawal rate, one might surmise, moves inversely.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 09-06-2019, 11:14 AM
 
766 posts, read 230,911 times
Reputation: 2770
Quote:
Originally Posted by ohio_peasant View Post
Withdrawl rate increases as we move further south. Withdrawal rate, one might surmise, moves inversely.
I see what you did there
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply

Quick Reply
Message:

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Retirement
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top