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I love Winter and really enjoy a great snow storm. Yesterday, the National Weather Service was wringing its undergarments about how RI was going to get a foot of snow this weekend. So I bought a scarf and gaiters. This morning, it was downgraded to six inches. Now? It's "a chance of accumulating snow."
I wanted chaos, I wanted irrational shoppers scooping up toilet paper and milk!
Is it that hard to forecast Rhode Island's weather? I mean, vast is the difference between a foot of snow and "a chance of accumulating snow."
Is this typical of weather predictions for RI? Who is responsible for these grievous errors, and why do they still have jobs?
I think it's unfair to get my hopes up, only to be dashed by nameless bureaucrats.
Meteorologists are probably the only group of people who can be wrong 75% of the time and still keep their jobs.. well, I should probably throw politicians in there as well.
RI is in a weird area where the differences even in the tiny state can be dramatic. No school Foster/Glocester comes to mind, when it could be perfectly fine in Newport.
It's like there here in LV, though, too. I've had 3" of total precipitation year to date in my neighborhood. Other neighborhoods have had 1", and there is one that's had 7". And that's in 1 city! (although the city is roughly the same size as RI).
Anyway, back on topic.. yes, the weathermen suck in RI. They also suck in just about every place I've lived. You need to use the Indian Rock Method. If the rock is wet, it's raining. If it's white, it's snowing.
We're back on track! From the National Weather Service:
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
* LOCATIONS...MOST OF CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...MASSACHUSETTS
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF HARTFORD...
PROVIDENCE...BOSTON...WORCESTER...SPRINGFIELD...NA SHUA AND
MANCHESTER NEW HAMPSHIRE.
* HAZARD TYPES...A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW FOLLOWED BY SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN.
* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...ALONG
WITH A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.
* TIMING...SNOW OVERSPREADS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOMES STEADIER AND HEAVIER SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW
WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS CONNECTICUT...RHODE
ISLAND AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE
INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA.
* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT AND TREACHEROUS
LATE SATURDAY
I love Winter and really enjoy a great snow storm. Yesterday, the National Weather Service was wringing its undergarments about how RI was going to get a foot of snow this weekend. So I bought a scarf and gaiters. This morning, it was downgraded to six inches. Now? It's "a chance of accumulating snow."
I wanted chaos, I wanted irrational shoppers scooping up toilet paper and milk!
Is it that hard to forecast Rhode Island's weather? I mean, vast is the difference between a foot of snow and "a chance of accumulating snow."
Is this typical of weather predictions for RI? Who is responsible for these grievous errors, and why do they still have jobs?
I think it's unfair to get my hopes up, only to be dashed by nameless bureaucrats.
It's quite typical. Rhode Island is sort of in its own little World when it comes to weather. (And a lot of other things!) Something to do with the unpredictable confluence of winds off Narragansett Bay permeating the greater jet stream. (Or some such nonsense.) But hey, that's part of its charm if you ask me.
Although it is kind of annoying that in the summertime they consistently forecast the high to be about 6 or 7 degrees colder than the reality....
Believe it or not, this is actually one time when the local weather forecasters usually get it more on target than the NWS. They take into account the small permutations within the state, like whether you're in Little Compton or in Foster. Urban areas like Providence are usually a couple degrees warmer than non urban and so on...
But in terms of hedging bets, if it's 6 inches they'll say "we forecasted it"
and if it's 12, well then, they forecasted that too.
The wx folks run different computer models at different times of the day. Each model is better at one thing than another. It's all rather complicated - and I would never want that kind of job.
I'm talking about the professionals - not these hacks on local tv or TWC.
What will either delight some or anger others - will be how much of the warmer temps are drawn into the weather system, decreasing accumulation. And that is rather difficult to forecast.
The wx folks run different computer models at different times of the day. Each model is better at one thing than another. It's all rather complicated - and I would never want that kind of job.
I'm talking about the professionals - not these hacks on local tv or TWC.
What will either delight some or anger others - will be how much of the warmer temps are drawn into the weather system, decreasing accumulation. And that is rather difficult to forecast.
These are all subtleties beyond my understanding. I just want a HUGE storm!
From Projo:
Quote:
Channel 12 was predicting the highest snowfall total — 6 inches to 9 inches for Providence — with Channels 10 and 6 saying that most of the state, including Providence, should be in the range of 3 inches to 6 inches.
I fully intend to be downtown enjoying every flake (of snow or otherwise) between sips of Sam Adams.
Last edited by AlfieBoy; 12-13-2013 at 05:53 PM..
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