RE: Richmond Housing Market Specific to Near West End (Tuckahoe: 2009, foreclosures)

[soller38]

My wife and I, like many potential homeowners, are carefully following the housing crisis in general and the housing market where we'd potentially buy specifically...and trying to gauge whether to get in or to rent until conditions are more favorable.

We are likely moving to Richmond this coming spring of 2009...about six or seven months from evaluating what's on the market and deciding if we should make an offer.

If we buy we will target the near West End and put the kids in public school at Tuckahoe Elementary..we've been to the city once or twice already and evaluated the neighborhoods and chosen to focus our search on this area.

Our top end price for a home is in the low 400's. We've been tracking the market for the year it took to sell our home up north and have seen several nice four bedroom homes (capes and brick colonials) listed in the near West End area in the high 400's get sold in the low 400's. Which as potential buyers pleases us...

The question is...what do the folks on this forum who understand the localized housing market in Richmond specific to Henrico County (and the near West End) say about the trend as we continue to suffer through the housing crisis?

Will we see these now low 400k four bedrooms sell in the high 300's? Or is this area, because of its good public schools and quiet, safe neighborhoods more insulated from further market pressure?

Realizing nobody has a crystal ball...yet interested in your opinions.

[sls76]

We will be buying a home in Short Pump (probably in Wyndham) in the Spring if conditions settle down. We are currently renting. I've recently looked at some data that shows appreciation in Richmond taking off in 2003 at an unprecedented level. My concern is that when prices appreciate much faster than inflation, houses become less affordable. Anyway, I think prices on average have come down to 2006 levels, but I think they need to come down to 2004-2005 levels (maybe another 10-20%). There's definitely a lot of pressure on prices at the high end because there's a ton of inventory and limited buyers. It's possible that this is just my wishful thinking as a buyer. I will say that this market has relatively few foreclosures and a very low unemployment rate (4.7% in July compared to 6.1% for the nation). Just my $0.02.

http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFH...SouthEast.html

[PickPatrick]

Our market is in transition but very strong compared with other places in our country. From my perspective housing particularly in western Henrico will remain desireable for numerous reasons in addition to schools. With that said, I believe homes are staying on the market longer than we have seen in our area for many years and you will find that sellers are perhaps more motivated to negotiate price with a qualified buyer.

[whynot?]

I am confused. What does "near West End" have to do with "Short Pump/Wyndham" and "western Henrico?" I do not know where the school district boundaries are. (I can Google, though, don't worry.) What I do know is that Tuckahoe is inside Parham.

Are we even talking about the same neighborhoods here? Soller38, are you talking about the Westham side of Parham, or the Derbyshire side? Or farther west?

[sls76]

Originally Posted by whynot?

I am confused. What does "near West End" have to do with "Short Pump/Wyndham" and "western Henrico?" I do not know where the school district boundaries are. (I can Google, though, don't worry.) What I do know is that Tuckahoe is inside Parham.

Are we even talking about the same neighborhoods here? Soller38, are you talking about the Westham side of Parham, or the Derbyshire side? Or farther west?

I have no information specific to the near West End. The chart I linked provides information is for the entire Richmond MSA (including the near West End and Short Pump). Look at it--the entire market saw unprecedented and unsustainable appreciation from 2003 on. That's why we're seeing a pull back. To imply that there's nothing to be gained by understanding what went on in the entire Richmond housing market is silly.

[PickPatrick]

If you really like the Tuckahoe Elementary catchment area, your realtor should be able to set you up with a search and provide you all homes in that area that meet your criteria of price, style, features etc.

[whynot?]

Originally Posted by sls76

To imply that there's nothing to be gained by understanding what went on in the entire Richmond housing market is silly.

Nice. Thanks.