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Old 02-06-2008, 12:20 PM
 
Location: Polish Hill, Pittsburgh, PA
30,063 posts, read 67,110,417 times
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I must admit that I have become quite interested in the trend this thread has taken, and I hope to now chime in with some of my own research to help debunk (or prove) some of moparboy's claims.

BRAIN DRAIN

In the Year 2000, Monroe County had the following:

Percentage of Those 25 or Older With High School Diploma or Higher: 84.9%
Percentage of Those 25 or Older With Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 31.2%

In the Year 2006, Monroe County was projected to have had the following:

Percentage of Those 25 or Older With High School Diploma or Higher: 88.2%
Percentage of Those 25 or Older With Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 32.5%

From 2000-2006, the percentage of those with at least a high school diploma rose by 3.3%, or by about 0.5% per year. If that trend holds true then that number should have risen in 2008 to 89.2% of residents holding at least a diploma. During that same six-year timeframe the number of college graduates rose by 1.3%, or by about 0.2% per year. Following that trend in 2008 there should be 32.9% of Monroe County residents with at least a Bachelor's Degree, or roughly one out of every three people.

When compared to New York, Monroe County didn't fare too badly at all. In 2000 in NY for those aged 25 and over 79.1% held a high school diploma (5.8% LOWER than Monroe County at that time), and 27.4% of residents held at least a Bachelor's Degree (3.8% LOWER than Monroe County at that time). In 2006 in NY for those aged 25 and over 84.1% held a high school diploma (still 4.1% LOWER than Monroe County as of 2006), and 31.2% held at least a Bachelor's Degree (still 1.3% LOWER than Monroe County as of 2006).

The bad news for Greater Rochester? As you can see the state of New York SIGNIFICANTLY narrowed those gaps between 2000 and 2006. Between 2000 and 2006, the rate of percentage growth for those in NY with at least a high school diploma was 5%, or 1.7% GREATER than the growth Monroe County experienced during that same period. The rate of percentage growth statewide between 2000 and 2006 for those with at least a Bachelor's Degree increased 3.8%, or nearly THRICE the rate of growth for Monroe County during that same period.

Conclusion? Greater Rochester is becoming more well-educated, but it is doing so much more slowly than the rest of the state.

POPULATION DECLINE

Monroe County:

2000: Pop. 735,343
2006: Pop. 730,807
Decline of 4,536 total (-0.6%), Decline of 756 per year or -0.1% per year

New York:

2000: Pop. 18,976,457
2006: Pop. 19,297,729
Increase of 321,272 total (+1.6%), Increase of 53,545 per year or +0.3% per year

Yes, the population numbers do look bleak for Greater Rochester, especially since the rest of state grew (albeit modestly). You'll be hard-pressed to put a positive "spin" on a declining population. A shrinking tax base means that those who remain have to bear a greater financial burden overall per capita to maintain municipal services in order to account for those who have left (hence higher taxes).
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Old 02-06-2008, 12:59 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
897 posts, read 2,247,221 times
Reputation: 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by SWB View Post
I must admit that I have become quite interested in the trend this thread has taken, and I hope to now chime in with some of my own research to help debunk (or prove) some of moparboy's claims.

BRAIN DRAIN

In the Year 2000, Monroe County had the following:

Percentage of Those 25 or Older With High School Diploma or Higher: 84.9%
Percentage of Those 25 or Older With Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 31.2%

In the Year 2006, Monroe County was projected to have had the following:

Percentage of Those 25 or Older With High School Diploma or Higher: 88.2%
Percentage of Those 25 or Older With Bachelor's Degree or Higher: 32.5%

From 2000-2006, the percentage of those with at least a high school diploma rose by 3.3%, or by about 0.5% per year. If that trend holds true then that number should have risen in 2008 to 89.2% of residents holding at least a diploma. During that same six-year timeframe the number of college graduates rose by 1.3%, or by about 0.2% per year. Following that trend in 2008 there should be 32.9% of Monroe County residents with at least a Bachelor's Degree, or roughly one out of every three people.

When compared to New York, Monroe County didn't fare too badly at all. In 2000 in NY for those aged 25 and over 79.1% held a high school diploma (5.8% LOWER than Monroe County at that time), and 27.4% of residents held at least a Bachelor's Degree (3.8% LOWER than Monroe County at that time). In 2006 in NY for those aged 25 and over 84.1% held a high school diploma (still 4.1% LOWER than Monroe County as of 2006), and 31.2% held at least a Bachelor's Degree (still 1.3% LOWER than Monroe County as of 2006).

The bad news for Greater Rochester? As you can see the state of New York SIGNIFICANTLY narrowed those gaps between 2000 and 2006. Between 2000 and 2006, the rate of percentage growth for those in NY with at least a high school diploma was 5%, or 1.7% GREATER than the growth Monroe County experienced during that same period. The rate of percentage growth statewide between 2000 and 2006 for those with at least a Bachelor's Degree increased 3.8%, or nearly THRICE the rate of growth for Monroe County during that same period.

Conclusion? Greater Rochester is becoming more well-educated, but it is doing so much more slowly than the rest of the state.

POPULATION DECLINE

Monroe County:

2000: Pop. 735,343
2006: Pop. 730,807
Decline of 4,536 total (-0.6%), Decline of 756 per year or -0.1% per year

New York:

2000: Pop. 18,976,457
2006: Pop. 19,297,729
Increase of 321,272 total (+1.6%), Increase of 53,545 per year or +0.3% per year

Yes, the population numbers do look bleak for Greater Rochester, especially since the rest of state grew (albeit modestly). You'll be hard-pressed to put a positive "spin" on a declining population. A shrinking tax base means that those who remain have to bear a greater financial burden overall per capita to maintain municipal services in order to account for those who have left (hence higher taxes).
It is not the percentages of education in the area. It is the migration statistics. Monroe county is also 1 of 5 counties that make up the MSA. You should also look at how the MSA are made up for rochester in the past 40 years it went from 1 county to 5 to make the population of the area. So you could say that there is a slight manipulation of data. I believe that for the MSA the college education rate is 16% and graduation is 83%.But Monroe county and New York state(2nd lowest paid) is one of the lowest paid for college educated and it has nothing to do with the area cost of living.
Moderator cut: linking to competitors sites is not allowed

R News: As It Happens, Where It Happens (http://www.rnews.com/story_2004.cfm?story_type=2&rnews_story_type=18&id =51741 - broken link)

Last edited by Yac; 02-14-2008 at 06:08 AM..
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Old 02-06-2008, 01:20 PM
 
Location: Polish Hill, Pittsburgh, PA
30,063 posts, read 67,110,417 times
Reputation: 15711
Quote:
Originally Posted by shibainu View Post
It is not the percentages of education in the area. It is the migration statistics. Monroe county is also 1 of 5 counties that make up the MSA. You should also look at how the MSA are made up for rochester in the past 40 years it went from 1 county to 5 to make the population of the area. So you could say that there is a slight manipulation of data. I believe that for the MSA the college education rate is 16% and graduation is 83%.But Monroe county and New York state(2nd lowest paid) is one of the lowest paid for college educated and it has nothing to do with the area cost of living.Moderator cut: linking to competitors sites is not allowed

R News: As It Happens, Where It Happens (http://www.rnews.com/story_2004.cfm?story_type=2&rnews_story_type=18&id =51741 - broken link)

When most people think of a "city", they usually think of the city proper and its host county (or at least I do). I usually tend to not include neighboring suburban counties into my statistical research because usually adding in the higher socioeconomic values for the suburban counties will unfairly skew the results in the positive and make the city overall appear better than it actually is. In this sense the suburbs/exurbs become "outliers" because we all know that suburbs in the Northeast tend to be much more well-educated, affluent, and high-growth than their host cities.

Last edited by Yac; 02-14-2008 at 06:08 AM..
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Old 02-06-2008, 04:45 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
897 posts, read 2,247,221 times
Reputation: 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by SWB View Post
When most people think of a "city", they usually think of the city proper and its host county (or at least I do). I usually tend to not include neighboring suburban counties into my statistical research because usually adding in the higher socioeconomic values for the suburban counties will unfairly skew the results in the positive and make the city overall appear better than it actually is. In this sense the suburbs/exurbs become "outliers" because we all know that suburbs in the Northeast tend to be much more well-educated, affluent, and high-growth than their host cities.
Then looking at Monroe county you said 32.5 percent was college educated in 2006. If you drill down to associates it is 11%, Bachelor's degree 18.3%, graduate is 14% compared to 2000 it was associates 9.7 Bachelor's 18.4% graduate 12.7%. The margin of error in the 2006 data is 5%.
Percent bachelor's degree or higher
2002- 32.9
2003-33.9
2004-32.2
2005-34.3
2006-32.5

So looking at the trend it will probably go up in 2007 and down in 2008. I am guessing this is migration playing a big factor or the data estimates are off.
But again the real issue is Migration. How many students that get there education here stays or do they leave?

IRS data shows from 2005 people migrating out of monroe county made more money compared to the people coming into the county.
Moving from county to county

here are some peoples comments about brain drain in nys:
CNY's Brain Drain - News from The Post-Standard on Syracuse.com
The Daily Politics - NY Daily News
Buffalo Pundit Blog Archive Brain Kryptonite

Last edited by shibainu; 02-06-2008 at 05:02 PM..
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Old 02-07-2008, 06:40 AM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
897 posts, read 2,247,221 times
Reputation: 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by shibainu View Post
The News today said that some one is trying to aquire the rhino's because they defaulted on 11 million dollars of loans. The Rochester Americans are looking to be bought because they are broke and attendance is low.
Don't forget that the local catholic schools are closing.
The avearge employment for the 1990's was 429k and so far the 2000's have an average 437k. So in 17 years time rochester created 7,750 jobs. That is an average of 455 jobs a year. But the most important number is in 2006 58.9% in monroe county are employed compared to in 2000 that number was 61.9%



Just in todays local news:
City to Assess Future of Blue Cross Arena - 13WHAM.com
Meeting Today On Rhinos Future - 13WHAM.com
Catholic Schools Registration Date Changed - 13WHAM.com
More problems with schools in rochester. Possible 7 city schools may close on top of the 13 Catholic schools that are closing.
R News: As It Happens, Where It Happens (http://www.rnews.com/TopStory_2004.cfm?cmd=top&rnews_story_type=18 - broken link)
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Old 02-07-2008, 06:49 AM
 
525 posts, read 1,639,585 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shibainu View Post
More problems with schools in rochester. Possible 7 city schools may close on top of the 13 Catholic schools that are closing.
R News: As It Happens, Where It Happens (http://www.rnews.com/TopStory_2004.cfm?cmd=top&rnews_story_type=18 - broken link)
For the city schools, they should all be closed and get a fresh start. For Catholic schools, this is hardly a problem unique to Rochester like you are trying to spin. Here is an article from 2 years ago -- Can Catholic elementary schools survive? - Faith in America - MSNBC.com
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Old 02-07-2008, 10:06 AM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
897 posts, read 2,247,221 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rochacha View Post
For the city schools, they should all be closed and get a fresh start. For Catholic schools, this is hardly a problem unique to Rochester like you are trying to spin. Here is an article from 2 years ago -- Can Catholic elementary schools survive? - Faith in America - MSNBC.com
I am not spinning anything. The Catholic church does have a problem across America I do not deny that. But to possibly have 25 schools close in the past 3 years is not good in any city. Show me a city that is doing well that has that many possible school closings. If you honestly saying I am spinning the news buy just reference the article than I would suggest your in a state of denial.
The truth or you may call spin is that the Catholic church schools probably did not have many people attending them any way to really hurt the influx of students going to different schools but the underlining issue will be if we do get those other cities schools to close or re-organize. How will that effect the community?
I think right away we will see a few things happen. 1 unemployment of experience teachers will rise. For the Catholic teachers some may be lucky to be able to get jobs in the city or larger school districts but the standard for private teachers is lower than state teachers. It is also very doubtful if the city closes schools 2 Education achievement will decline in additional schools that can not take the over-crowed students. 3. They more than likely will re-do the district boundaries or give incentives for students to go to other schools in the suburbs. Which will effect the performance of those suburb schools 3. They will probably teach students by test assessment only so they do not lose federal and state aid. So they will focus their curriculum to pass the no-child left behind so the students education will not be well rounded.

You can read or listen to the news every day in Rochester or even Western NY and you will get a sense that this area is in a major decline. I understand the job of the news media is to report the most exciting events, but I rarely see any good news on economic, social, and education development. If you think government bail outs are good then you have lost sight of what is really important. The government and organizations can bail out for a while but something down the line has to give. (may be that is why nys is one of the highest taxed states)
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Old 02-07-2008, 12:04 PM
 
3,234 posts, read 7,599,888 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shibainu View Post
I am not spinning anything. The Catholic church does have a problem across America I do not deny that. But to possibly have 25 schools close in the past 3 years is not good in any city. Show me a city that is doing well that has that many possible school closings. If you honestly saying I am spinning the news buy just reference the article than I would suggest your in a state of denial.
The truth or you may call spin is that the Catholic church schools probably did not have many people attending them any way to really hurt the influx of students going to different schools but the underlining issue will be if we do get those other cities schools to close or re-organize. How will that effect the community?
I think right away we will see a few things happen. 1 unemployment of experience teachers will rise. For the Catholic teachers some may be lucky to be able to get jobs in the city or larger school districts but the standard for private teachers is lower than state teachers. It is also very doubtful if the city closes schools 2 Education achievement will decline in additional schools that can not take the over-crowed students. 3. They more than likely will re-do the district boundaries or give incentives for students to go to other schools in the suburbs. Which will effect the performance of those suburb schools 3. They will probably teach students by test assessment only so they do not lose federal and state aid. So they will focus their curriculum to pass the no-child left behind so the students education will not be well rounded.

You can read or listen to the news every day in Rochester or even Western NY and you will get a sense that this area is in a major decline. I understand the job of the news media is to report the most exciting events, but I rarely see any good news on economic, social, and education development. If you think government bail outs are good then you have lost sight of what is really important. The government and organizations can bail out for a while but something down the line has to give. (may be that is why nys is one of the highest taxed states)
You are spinning the subject. There has been a large number of catholic schools across the country closing in recent history. I remember reading about this a few years ago. The possible closings are not just located in the city, but are all over the county. If there were a several large schools in the city closing at the same time, you would have a point. This is not the case, you have several small schools (mostly elementary) in different spots of the county(not to mention there are schools closing in places like Webster that have been seeing large amounts of growth). Then you have some city high school/middle schools that are under the special review mentioned in that article. Just because they are under that review does not mean that they are going to close. They may close. When somebody gets written up at work they get a warning saying that they "may" get fired. Doesn't mean its going to happen. You are treating this situation like they are all closing.
I read and listen to the news every day and do not get the sense that this area is in a major decline. I get the sense the area took a hit, things are pretty much level and there are attempts to put the area in an upswing. I would view a "major decline" as large population losses and large net job losses over the period of several years. If you haven't seen good news in the media on education and economic development, you haven't been looking. There have been positive articles on area schools and companies in recent months.
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Old 02-07-2008, 01:11 PM
 
5,265 posts, read 14,858,890 times
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I have to agree. "Major decline" is what Pittsburgh and Detroit, and to a somewhat lesser degrree our neighbor to the west saw in the 60's-80s. I'd definitely agree that Rochester took a hit recently as Kodak cutbacks were a prety stiff blow to the economy. But things seem to be stablizing now and I don't think its unreasonable to be optomistic about the future of Rochester. Job growth this past year has been much better than the previous post 9/11 years. We are seeing more and more development downtown with both current and proposd public AND PRIVATE projects. To say Rochester is "in major decline" is really an extreme exaggeration. Just as extreme as saying we're booming (which I don't believe anyone is claiming). Pessimism just seems to really be what's "in" these says. Pretty unfortunate if you ask me.
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Old 02-07-2008, 07:33 PM
 
Location: Baltimore, MD
897 posts, read 2,247,221 times
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Originally Posted by I'minformed2 View Post
I have to agree. "Major decline" is what Pittsburgh and Detroit, and to a somewhat lesser degrree our neighbor to the west saw in the 60's-80s. I'd definitely agree that Rochester took a hit recently as Kodak cutbacks were a prety stiff blow to the economy. But things seem to be stablizing now and I don't think its unreasonable to be optomistic about the future of Rochester. Job growth this past year has been much better than the previous post 9/11 years. We are seeing more and more development downtown with both current and proposd public AND PRIVATE projects. To say Rochester is "in major decline" is really an extreme exaggeration. Just as extreme as saying we're booming (which I don't believe anyone is claiming). Pessimism just seems to really be what's "in" these says. Pretty unfortunate if you ask me.
This Study was done in late 2006. Detroit ranked #2 for job losses from 2001-2006, Rochester was #6, pittsburgh 20th.
bizjournals: Rankings for major labor markets (http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/pages/40.html - broken link)

If Rochester is not like Pittsburgh or Detroit than please explain why Pittsburgh is doing slightly better than rochester in most of these area's. Rochester has very similar data to detroit. So I guess in your eyes it is not a major decline. The only thing currently that detroit is facing a higher forclosure rate than Rochester. Rochester is one of the Highest in New York state and that data includes the suburbs.

The data below is just the city data from census 2006 execept the population growth was taken from Moderator cut: linking to competitors sites is not allowed

............Rochester ny ................pitt..................detroit
poverty
individual/family 24.3/30.1.........14.9/22.2............27/32.5
employment%.....52%...............54.4%........... .......43.2%
household inc.....27,407...........31,779................... 28,364
home value........67,600.............76,500............ ....91,700
Vacant hm..........20.3................16.7.............. .....23.0
grad rates...........79.0.................86.3......... ..........75.7
pop. growth......-5.30%...............-6.50............... -8.43
city-data
crime index.......711..................562.............. .....1138

Last edited by Yac; 02-14-2008 at 06:07 AM..
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