How is the current housing market in Placer County?

[NewToCA]

Originally Posted by baby888

Normally, home prices are higher in Summer and there are more sales. I guess it is not the case there anymore? Do you expect the price to fall down further in Fall or Spring? The zestimate(price on zillow.com) on some houses is $150K lower than the asking price. There is that much room to negotiate?

My knowledge of the future direction in house prices would be pretty limited. However, folks who make and lose money in predicting future prices, the Private Mortgage Insurance organization, predicts that the odds are over 90% that prices in the Sacramento metro area will be somewhat lower two years from now than they are today.

Regarding negotiating prices, that is difficult to tell too. Many homes are short sales or foreclosures, and the purchases can be rather convoluted. If you do a search in the forums about short sales or foreclosures, you can read a whole lot of stories about the difficulties folks have had executing these transactions.

I wouldn't be discouraged at all, many homes sell and the discounts as compared to a few years ago often exceed 50%, but just be realistic that the process may be rather difficult and time consuming (but worth the time and efforts).

[Phil Minor]

In the past, rate cuts on mortgage rates generally resulted in more sales and higher prices. Housing prices in the region overalll are flat since January, despite falling mortgage rates. Housing inventory is starting to build again, meaning housing prices may start falling again.

Mortgage rates fall to another record low - Financial News USA

HousingTracker.net | Median Home Asking Price & Inventory Data for Sacramento, California

The big local problem is jobs. When unemployment is this high 12%, you have people moving away looking for work and that keeps a lid on housing prices. I doubt the region will see much appreciation until unemployment falls below 8.5%. If you look at the other parts of the country that have unemployment problems like Sacramento, people only buy housing when its cheaper to buy a house than to rent it. Given that still isn't true in most of this region, I wouldn't be suprised if housing prices fell further as increasing inventory starts putting pressure on prices.

Table 1. Civilian labor force and unemployment by state and metropolitan area

[NorCal Dude]

upscale markets are the last to decline and the first to bounce back.

So when you see upscale markets declining it usually means you are near a bottom, when you see the values recovering thats how you know the market is will start to recover.

[DMenscha]

Forget Zillow as a price valuation website. Those of us in the business, regard Zillow as entertainment.

[Majin]

Originally Posted by DMenscha

Forget Zillow as a price valuation website. Those of us in the business, regard Zillow as entertainment.

Zillow is good for the recently sold filter IMHO. I ignore the "zestimate" value.

[wburg]

One thing to keep in mind is that jobs are retreating even faster in Placer County than in Sacramento. Here's an article from today's Bee, with a rather deceptive title:

The Public Eye: Sacramento job market compares poorly to nation's

Job markets in the Sacramento region's three largest counties were more anemic than most other places across the nation last year, according to a new report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Placer's job market looked the worst in 2009, with total employment declining 7 percent. Of the 335 largest counties in the nation, just 23 lost jobs at a faster rate last year. Only one other large California county, Tulare County, lost a higher proportion of jobs.
The 8,000 net jobs lost in Placer County is roughly equivalent to the population of Loomis, a Placer County suburb.
Yolo County didn't fare much better. It ranked 287th out of 335 counties in job loss. Sacramento County did slightly worse than average, ranking 170th.
The study also showed relatively anemic pay growth in the region from 2008 to 2009.

If you follow the link to the report:
Table 1. Covered (1) establishments, employment, and wages in the 335 largest counties, fourth quarter 2009 (2)

you will note that while Sacramento County is number 170 of the 335 largest counties in job losses, Placer County is number 312--near the end with the most job losses!

What does this mean? It means that Placer County in general, and Roseville in particular, are bedroom communities, economically dependent on Sacramento for jobs, aside maybe from retail jobs at the mall or in restaurants. It also means that, economically, to borrow a phrase from "There Will Be Blood," Placer County is drinking our milkshake--it is, for all practical purposes, a parasite.

It also means that if you want a house in Roseville, plan on a commute that is only going to get longer and more crowded.