DUDE! What is happening to Elk Grove? (Sacramento: sales, real estate market)

[CityGirl72]

My EX (whom I'm still friends with) bought this house in 2003, and I saw it skyrocket to nearly 500K in value - now it's just dumped to nearly 350K this year!

I know zillow is not accurate - I'm looking more at how the market moved then accuracy.

But WOW!!!

Zillow - 4101 Saul Ct, Elk Grove, CA 95758

[NewToCA]

Originally Posted by CityGirl72

My EX (whom I'm still friends with) bought this house in 2003, and I saw it skyrocket to nearly 500K in value - now it's just dumped to nearly 350K this year!

I know zillow is not accurate - I'm looking more at how the market moved then accuracy.

But WOW!!!

Zillow - 4101 Saul Ct, Elk Grove, CA 95758

Average price per square foot from the real estate folks, based on actual sales for Sacramento County:

Sacramento County - Average Home Sold Price Per Square Foot - All Prices

[CityGirl72]

Yes I use Lyon's website often - although I don't like that is looking at the full county - there are way too many neighborhoods incorporated into that number, from South Sac (yuck!) to swanky fab forties area.

I used to be an Economist in Sac for Urban Land Institute

[NewToCA]

You can target the view on a neighborhood. If you use the buy a home/map search function you can zero in on the appropriate neighborhood and see what homes around are selling.

Based on the Zillow data it appears that the peak value (based on square footage and Elk Grove) may have been in the mid $400's a couple of years ago, and may have receded back towards the upper $300's. But that would just be a guess based upon averages.

Always like communicating with economists, my favorite topic.

[cw68]

Originally Posted by CityGirl72

My EX (whom I'm still friends with) bought this house in 2003, and I saw it skyrocket to nearly 500K in value - now it's just dumped to nearly 350K this year!

I know zillow is not accurate - I'm looking more at how the market moved then accuracy.

But WOW!!!

Zillow - 4101 Saul Ct, Elk Grove, CA 95758

Overbuilt with homes. Cheap new construction. Not enough employment centers making it a commuting town. Sprawl!

[angelbug]

Originally Posted by cw68

Overbuilt with homes. Cheap new construction. Not enough employment centers making it a commuting town. Sprawl!

There have been a couple articles in the Sunday Sacramento Bee lately about how many vacant, foreclosing homes are on the market in Elk Grove, due to the factors mentioned above. Apparently some neighborhoods have multiple abandoned homes with unkempt lawns, etc., which neighborhood housing associations are trying to force absentee owners/banks to clean up. So it's a brutal buyer's market there right now, more so than in some other Sac area neighborhoods.

[wbsacto]

There is a site called flippersintrouble, that shows what homes sold for within the past few years and what they are now listed at. Its scary to see that home values dropped $120,000 or more in less than six months. Some homes are listed at half of what they sold for & they are sitting empty.

[Luke9686]

You all really didn't think the exploding market could sustain itself forever did you?? I could see this crash coming a mile away.

[TraderJack]

I don't think it's a real "crash" in the Sac market.
Heck back in the 90s you couldn't sell a house in Sacramento and Elk Grove was just a wide spot in the road! Most houses were on the market for 6 months and more!

The real estate market is just correcting itself to reflect more accurate priceing. When inventory gets to a more reasonable level, the prices will begin to climb back up.

There's still 100,000 new Californians every month. They gotta live somewhere. Supply and demand.

Regards,
TraderJack

[NewToCA]

Originally Posted by TraderJack

I don't think it's a real "crash" in the Sac market.
Heck back in the 90s you couldn't sell a house in Sacramento and Elk Grove was just a wide spot in the road! Most houses were on the market for 6 months and more!

The real estate market is just correcting itself to reflect more accurate priceing. When inventory gets to a more reasonable level, the prices will begin to climb back up.

There's still 100,000 new Californians every month. They gotta live somewhere. Supply and demand.

Regards,
TraderJack

I think your take is dead accurate. In looking at the growth rate, and income levels, I too think it is a partial "correction" to more sustainable pricing. As with all "corrections" things tend to overshoot in response to the mania, but eventually prices get back to a supportable and sustainable level.