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Old 11-20-2007, 09:49 AM
 
Location: Texas
23 posts, read 116,752 times
Reputation: 17

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Hi all, my family, four of us in all, with two elem. age children are thinking of getting into the market in the beginning of, or mid '09. I understand that is a long time horizon, so for this discussion, let's just settle on summer of '08 we would be buying. We are settling on El Dorado Hills, Granite Bay, or Roseville near Granite Bay.

What we are concerned with is we are reading about people that are buying now are having their tires slashed, homes broken into, and most of their things smashed, and just general mayhem.

Granted, I haven't seen specific examples for the areas I mention, but I did read one intersting story about an auction in Vacaville where people were paying close to $800K for their homes, and they are pretty mad at the auction winners.

I guess it boils down to the following anectdotal statement on a real estate blog: "...Here is one more thought, you buy a house for 437K, your neighbors have just a few months prior paid 700K for that same house. Get this through your head, every time you leave your house someone will break your windows, slash your tires, throw trash in your backyard and vandalise your house. And further, 3-6 months later, the builder will turn around and sell the rest of the houses for 150K less..."

What is the chance of this happening with the class of people in a nice neighborhood?
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Old 11-20-2007, 05:27 PM
 
26,591 posts, read 52,344,141 times
Reputation: 20438
Default Where is this Happening?

Anything is possible... I personally have not heard of an Owner Occupied home being vandalized by neighbors.

It would seem to me that the neighbors would be more than happy to have homes maintained and occupied by new home owners as opposed to vacant and neglected.

Getting along with your neighbors is fundamental to neighborhood enjoyment. You don't have to be friends... just friendly.
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Old 11-20-2007, 09:14 PM
 
216 posts, read 279,112 times
Reputation: 25
This sounds bizzare.
All the things you mentioned are bad for
a neighborhood. Maybe a few narrow minded
people will do this.

Having said that read my earlier posts about
Natomas. People literally stripped their homes
before the banks repossesed them.
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Old 11-20-2007, 10:33 PM
 
Location: Texas
23 posts, read 116,752 times
Reputation: 17
Quote:
Originally Posted by inpd View Post
This sounds bizzare.
All the things you mentioned are bad for
a neighborhood. Maybe a few narrow minded
people will do this.

Having said that read my earlier posts about
Natomas. People literally stripped their homes
before the banks repossesed them.
Thanks, I checked your other posts. I actually have a brother who lives in Natomas, and we could get into his neighborhood for 2/3 of what he paid, and be 2/3 bigger in home size. Kinda sad. He and I paid almost identical prices, but we have 3,600+ in Texas, and he has 1,800 in Natomas. We both have 1/4 acre. It takes me 35 minutes to go 20 miles to work, I need to ask him how long it takes him.

But, when it is 90% humidity here, he would probably laugh and say it is nice and cool and dry there!
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Old 11-21-2007, 02:38 PM
 
Location: Mokelumne Hill, CA & El Pescadero, BCS MX.
6,958 posts, read 19,191,224 times
Reputation: 6383
I'd love to see some actual news articles about the vandalism, Sounds pretty far fetched to me. If you're not currently in the market, then it shouldn't make any difference what's happening now. When you do enter the market, you will know what is going on then.
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Old 11-21-2007, 02:52 PM
GLS
 
1,985 posts, read 4,849,297 times
Reputation: 2408
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeepman View Post
Hi all, my family, four of us in all, with two elem. age children are thinking of getting into the market in the beginning of, or mid '09. I understand that is a long time horizon, so for this discussion, let's just settle on summer of '08 we would be buying. We are settling on El Dorado Hills, Granite Bay, or Roseville near Granite Bay.

What we are concerned with is we are reading about people that are buying now are having their tires slashed, homes broken into, and most of their things smashed, and just general mayhem.

Granted, I haven't seen specific examples for the areas I mention, but I did read one intersting story about an auction in Vacaville where people were paying close to $800K for their homes, and they are pretty mad at the auction winners.

I guess it boils down to the following anectdotal statement on a real estate blog: "...Here is one more thought, you buy a house for 437K, your neighbors have just a few months prior paid 700K for that same house. Get this through your head, every time you leave your house someone will break your windows, slash your tires, throw trash in your backyard and vandalise your house. And further, 3-6 months later, the builder will turn around and sell the rest of the houses for 150K less..."

What is the chance of this happening with the class of people in a nice neighborhood?
The only neighborhoods I am aware of this type of mob mentality destruction were in ghetto areas such as Watts. Although mass anger was involved it was fueled by the motivation of getting something for nothing, i.e. stealing TVs, appliances & general looting. It is not that the people in Granite Bay, Roseville, etc are BETTER than those in Watts. However, any resentment of "carpetbaggers" will not be re-enforced by the concept they will have something to gain from this type of destructive behavior.

In summary, you should be saved by human nature and self-interest of the homeowners. The solution to falling home prices in a neighborhood is not vandalism which prompts home prices to fall further.
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Old 11-21-2007, 04:29 PM
 
Location: Texas
23 posts, read 116,752 times
Reputation: 17
Thanks all, we feel much better, and the point of not being in the market now seems to hold much weight.

I will focus most of my energy on gathering information for my spouse and I to make the best decision when the time comes.
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Old 11-22-2007, 02:46 AM
 
433 posts, read 2,173,126 times
Reputation: 312
Almost sounds like blood in the streets now.

And that is when you buy.

Yes- it still might early - but signs are out there right now of capitulation.

I remember when I bought into the down-and-out Sacramento market in the early part of 1994. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE told me not to buy.

I bought in Folsom and I pretty much caught the bottom. And you don't see a bottom until it is in the rear view mirror.

The markets you are interested in only have like 10% or less sub prime loan exposure. They won't drop nowhere near as much as South Sac, Elk Grove or Natomas areas etc. Those areas have huge exposure to the loan debacle. Something closer to 40 or 50% of the loans are sub prime according to the Sac Bee article I saw. If my numbers are wrong, please point it out.

It's just like a stock market crash. Buy when when no one wants to buy and before the screams develop about how cheap housing has become. It's a tough call when that point happens. You want to keep your powder dry and be ready to jump in at anytime!
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