Help me pick a spot.

[lukeache]

Originally Posted by djtroy

Im in the mortgage business. I am not sure whats going on in Sacramento but I do know whats going on in the states I do business in. Do you think if I buy a house now I will have lost money owning it 8 or 10 years from now? If you think it will be worth less than what I paid in 10 years you might need an examination. You can't tell someone they will loose money on a house if you dont know how long they are going to own it. How about this, I keep it until its worth more than what I paid.
I dont think ill have to wait very long, judjing from the rate cuts and the past propery values in cali.

I don't understand why you would want to buy something now knowing that prices have not even hit rockbottom yet, it is possible that prices might go down another 20%. Why not wait until the market bottoms out?? Underwriting is very tight now.

[djtroy]

Originally Posted by lukeache

I don't understand why you would want to buy something now knowing that prices have not even hit rockbottom yet, it is possible that prices might go down another 20%. Why not wait until the market bottoms out?? Underwriting is very tight now.

How are you so sure prices will go down? What if i rent and prices start to go back up?
When will this 20% price drop happen adn where exactly so I can get ready to buy when it does?

[lukeache]

Originally Posted by djtroy

How are you so sure prices will go down? What if i rent and prices start to go back up? When will this 20% price drop happen adn where exactly so I can get ready to buy when it does?

It is called basic Economics. Market is flooded with supply and there is no demand to meet the supply. When that happens, prices will have to go down otherwise builders and sellers will be stuck with inventory forever. Haven't you read the news lately about the subprime mortgage crisis and the credit crunch?. Stockton, not too far from Sacramento has the worst foreclosure rate in the nation. Sacramento is top 6 nationally in foreclosures. I think 20% is a very conservative estimate. Too many houses, not enough buyers and credit is tightening. Actually I watched the round table on CSPAN 2 today about the current subprime crisis and it seems like mortgage lenders are changing the rules of the game drastically, even the CEO of Countrywide regrets what they did, including the so called "no doc" or "low doc" loans, mortgage loans with no or very little documentation required. I believe those days are over. If you want to buy a house right away, you better have a substantial down payment.

[djtroy]

Originally Posted by lukeache

It is called basic Economics. Market is flooded with supply and there is no demand to meet the supply. When that happens, prices will have to go down otherwise builders and sellers will be stuck with inventory forever. Haven't you read the news lately about the subprime mortgage crisis and the credit crunch?. Stockton, not too far from Sacramento has the worst foreclosure rate in the nation. Sacramento is top 6 nationally in foreclosures. I think 20% is a very conservative estimate. Too many houses, not enough buyers and credit is tightening. Actually I watched the round table on CSPAN 2 today about the current subprime crisis and it seems like mortgage lenders are changing the rules of the game drastically, even the CEO of Countrywide regrets what they did, including the so called "no doc" or "low doc" loans, mortgage loans with no or very little documentation required. I believe those days are over. If you want to buy a house right away, you better have a substantial down payment.

I already mentioned to you I was the manager of a mortgage company. You can go back and search my previous posts if you dont believe me. What your tellimng me here is REALLY old news. This has been going on for a very long time already. Most people who took the ARM loans took 2 adn 3 year ARMS. That wave will be all but finished come spring time. I just find it hard to believe you can see the future asnd you are sure prices wil drop another 20%. Again I know nothing about your area so you could be right, but if you think that prices are going to drop 20% across the board I think your wrong.

[inpd]

Originally Posted by djtroy

who took the ARM loans took 2 adn 3 year ARMS. That wave will be all but finished come spring time.

Sorry the facts contradict your statement. See the figure in
Foreclosure solutions won't be easy - Mortgage mess - MSNBC.com.

Now is the peak for foreclosures but the end will come in 2012
not next spring according to creditsuise figures: a very
respectable source.

Whether this applies to Sacramento is another issue.

[djtroy]

Originally Posted by inpd

Sorry the facts contradict your statement. See the figure in
Foreclosure solutions won't be easy - Mortgage mess - MSNBC.com.

Now is the peak for foreclosures but the end will come in 2012
not next spring according to creditsuise figures: a very
respectable source.

Whether this applies to Sacramento is another issue.

How can the foreclosures keep coming if the subprime market will have long been over with? The only people who have got a mortgage in the last 12 months are the people who have 680 credit scores or big money down and I dont see them forclosing because they had to prove they could afford to get that loan.

[inpd]

Originally Posted by djtroy

How can the foreclosures keep coming if the subprime market will have long been over with? The only people who have got a mortgage in the last 12 months are the people who have 680 credit scores or big money down and I dont see them forclosing because they had to prove they could afford to get that loan.

Well you said you were in the mortgage business, but perhaps you should read
the story and figures I posted. Suisecredit is a respected banking house.

Essentially the teaser rates were typically for
2-3 years so people borrowing at the start of this year won't be hit with the
higher rates which cause foreclosure until 2010.