Housing Prices Predicted to Continue Decline (Sacramento: 2010, for rent, mortgage)

[NewToCA]

Not posting this because I agree with it, I actually don't. However, we have had some discussions concerning the future direction of home prices, and I felt this would be a good disclosure for our posters:

10 worst real-estate markets for 2009

5. Sacramento

2008 median house price: $225,140
2009 projected change: -22.2%
2010 projected change: 2.3%

High jobless rates and low population growth are helping burst the capital city's inflated housing market. Prices are expected to fall another 22% in 2009, after tumbling 34% in 2008.


10 worst real-estate markets for 2009 - Sacramento (5) - FORTUNE

[CityGirl72]

sweet

[dogmom]

We're planning to come back 'home' to Placer county...sold our home last summer and currently living in our little summer mobile home in WA state. When I say little, I mean little, 800 sq feet...we have 3 storage units with our life in them.

We were thinking we should start seriously looking after the first of the year. I don't know what to do..we are both retired and hubby on disability..I am not able to work and applying for disability...we figured we have half down payment..should we wait? Seems like everyone is saying something different.

Any thoughts??

[NewToCA]

Originally Posted by dogmom

We're planning to come back 'home' to Placer county...sold our home last summer and currently living in our little summer mobile home in WA state. When I say little, I mean little, 800 sq feet...we have 3 storage units with our life in them.

We were thinking we should start seriously looking after the first of the year. I don't know what to do..we are both retired and hubby on disability..I am not able to work and applying for disability...we figured we have half down payment..should we wait? Seems like everyone is saying something different.

Any thoughts??

My opinion is that the risk of the housing market is towards the downward side at this moment, though not nearly at the rate predicted in the OP.

If I can find a home that I really like, at a price I can reasonably afford, I would evaluate the historical prices. If it appears to be reasonably priced in comparison to the current market, I tend to think you should buy.

[GLS]

Originally Posted by dogmom

We're planning to come back 'home' to Placer county...sold our home last summer and currently living in our little summer mobile home in WA state. When I say little, I mean little, 800 sq feet...we have 3 storage units with our life in them.

We were thinking we should start seriously looking after the first of the year. I don't know what to do..we are both retired and hubby on disability..I am not able to work and applying for disability...we figured we have half down payment..should we wait? Seems like everyone is saying something different.

Any thoughts??

Depending upon the area and the type/size house you are looking for, there should be "bargains" in SAC throughout 2009. Also, remember that the Fed is pushing mortgage rates down, maybe to unheard of lows after Obama gets in. Good luck.

[GLS]

Originally Posted by CityGirl72

sweet

One man's "sweet" is another man's "sour". Better a buyer in 2009 than a seller. Hope you find what you are looking for before the moss anchors your feet to Seattle.

[edwardius]

Originally Posted by NewToCA

10 worst real-estate markets for 2009

5. Sacramento

2008 median house price: $225,140
2009 projected change: -22.2%
2010 projected change: 2.3%

High jobless rates and low population growth are helping burst the capital city's inflated housing market. Prices are expected to fall another 22% in 2009, after tumbling 34% in 2008.


10 worst real-estate markets for 2009 - Sacramento (5) - FORTUNE

According to the latest MLS report the median price of a home in Sac is just under 204k.

http://www.sacrealtor.org/documents/...vember2008.pdf

A 22% drop in the median would be 159k.

Other than this housing bubble and the last one, usually the real price of housing in Sacramento has been under 150k. So I think the estimate is probably a little conservative.

http://mysite.verizon.net/vodkajim/h...e%20Prices.xls

The local economy is doing quite bad and the largest employer in the region has 40 billion plus budget shortfall and is talking about layoffs. In an enviroment this bad, I think a drop of just down to $159k is conservative.

But perhaps the Obama adminstration will pull something a rabbit out of his sleeve like this one? If they do this, I hope it works.

We Have a Winner? « The Baseline Scenario

[darrenbrett]

One of the things my wife and I are watching is how prices move in Sacramento, vs. where we are now in Central Oregon. So far Sacramento has felt more downward pressure than here. Depending on how things move in 2009 we'll either try and sell here - even if it is for a small loss over what we bought the house at in 2006 - since we'd be able to buy at historical lows in Sac-town, or we'll just opt for renting this home out, while we wait for prices to recover more here, and go ahead and snatch up a house in Sacramento while we can.

Like others have mentioned, we're watching what the Obama team does with mortgage rates. Apparently they are considering a solution for people under-water with their mortgages (owing more than the house is worth). If that happens, and even under-water homeowners are given the opportunity to refinance, then I think we'd jump at that, and then rent this house and buy in Sacramento in 2009. Right now we are not under-water - let's hope that doesn't happen! But it'd be great if we could lock in at 4-5% for the long-haul with our house here in Central Oregon. That makes renting much more doable.

[wburg]

The only problem is that a lot of the new developments where prices are dropping the most could potentially be under-water in a far more literal sense...

[DMenscha]

If interest rates get down to 4.5%, you're going to see lots of activity in the mortgage market, but not in new mortgages. People will refinance existing mortgages creating nice new fees for lenders, but not much in the way of new buyers. In a $250K mortgage, there's not a giant difference in the payment between 4.5% and 5.5%.

Politics aside, the markets determine mortgage interest rates, not the politicians.