John Laing homes in Lincoln (Roseville, Folsom: real estate, 2015, rental)

[DrTrancommodity]

Last year my family was looking at courtyard homes in Lincoln, mainly the John Laing communities of Meridian and Equinox. Fyi, those are the homes that have a tiny backyard, no front yard, and are squished together. We decided not to buy there because of the Mello Roos and HOA fees. I've read that they've sold the communities recently and are not building anymore new homes because of the housing bust. I'm curious because there are still a lot of empty lots in that neighborhood, so are they just going to lay empty? And if they are, would that take a serious toll on the prices of the existing homes?

I've looked at housing prices in Lincoln Crossing and most regular homes are faring a lot better than the courtyard homes. Houses that compare in size in traditional lots are listed at around $50k or more higher than the courtyards.

Even when the housing market recovers (after 2015 I've heard?), I don't think that those homes will ever catch up to comparable traditional homes. Maybe it depends on if the rest of the neighborhood is finished.

What do you think? Really interested in your opinions. This neighborhood is in a really odd situation.

[NewToCA]

Well, I would only say that I expect the recovery to result in a tilt towards smaller homes on smaller lots, so I would assume that there will be a lot of similar competition for this type of home style.

I would think this would somewhat supress future appreciation.

[Adriana_H]

DrTrancommodity, we have observed something similar to what you described. There are still empty lots in the neighborhood, especially for Meridian Ranch where there are lots going for $30K and spec homes which are only 25-45% complete. We have a fuller coverage of John Laing Homes properties here: http://www.thedownturnanalyst.com/knowledge-center/john-laing-homes/ (broken link)

The biggest problem in such neighborhoods is not just the housing bust and systemic risk in housing markets, but also the difficulties that buyers face in finding the seller from whom to close the deal. Bankrupt builders like John Laing have almost no employees left working for them, and it's a question of being able to locate the real estate advisor approved by the bankruptcy court.

[jkca1]

I looked at buying one of the Laing homes in Lincoln as a rental property. I thought they were overpriced and compared to what you can now get for a home in Lincoln today you'd be crazy not to buy a house there instead. The area is prime to grow again once the recession eases up. Don't worry about making a killing in real-estate. Buy what you can afford in an area you like. Lincoln is a great place to live, as are Roseville, Rocklin, Folsom...

[monaghan]

I have lived in the Courtyards for more than a year now and like it very much. The neighborhood is almost completely built out, a few lots left. To me, it feels more like a community environment than elswhere. I have kids and like that the Courtyards is gated. In terms of the lot sizes, I have no complaints whatsoever, whereas my last home had a large yard and that was a lot of work. Also, I think taxes have something to do with your actual lot size, not just assessed worth. My house is 2142 sq feet, I could have bought a bigger house in another area, but am happy with my decision. Besides, what is so great with living in a 3,000 sq foot house if your neighbor parks his rv in the drive way. A lot of the other homes are not in a HOA/CCR like Courtyards.