What went wrong with Elk Grove? (Sacramento, Roseville: foreclosures, crime rate, houses)

[moonsky]

From reading several threads here, it seems that Elk Grove may turn to South Sac. I am not familiar with Sacramento but got a feeling that it is not a good area. Was Elk Grove a new development area in the past decade or less? How did it go bad so quickly? What are the reasons?

Will any recent new development i.e, Rocklin, Roseville, Granite Bay, Folsom ever turn out bad like Elk Grove?

[Majin]

1. All housing and no jobs
2. Too suburban, yes there are degrees of suburbanity and Elk Grove is the worst case
3. Very little infrastructure in roads/public transit for a city of it's size
4. Not enough diversity in housing stock
5. All chain restaurants, no entertainment, no urban center, it's just a suburban clusterf

Despite claims on here that Elk Grove is turning into South Sac, it's not, sadly. I *wish* it would turn into South Sac, at least then it would actually have some character.

The eastern foothill suburbs will always stay as bland as Elk Grove, and that's why I would never live in any of them. Out of all those options Roseville is probably the closest thing to a real city. It actually has a size-able downtown and night life.

[NewToCA]

Originally Posted by moonsky

From reading several threads here, it seems that Elk Grove may turn to South Sac. I am not familiar with Sacramento but got a feeling that it is not a good area. Was Elk Grove a new development area in the past decade or less? How did it go bad so quickly? What are the reasons?

Will any recent new development i.e, Rocklin, Roseville, Granite Bay, Folsom ever turn out bad like Elk Grove?

I think Elk Grove is going to struggle for quite awhile, but I don't think it will be an undesirable place to live.

Regarding which of the newer developments may end up being less desirable (which I believe is your main point) than the others, I'd probably go with two you didn't list, Natomas and Rancho Cordova.

[hydro]

It isn't so bad- the redeeming qualities are that you can get a large house in a clean neighborhood for a low price and the schools are good. There are varying degrees of desirability depending which side of town you live on, and it is sprawl town suburbia USA 2nd only to Natomas in our region. If you don't mind ticky tacky and strip malls, however, it might be a real practical place to pick up a dwelling.

[wburg]

moonsky: I think Elk Grove's fall is somewhat overblown. Many people pronounce a neighborhood "ghetto" because they saw some non-white teenagers walking on the street and assumed they were a gang.

Elk Grove was a town of 10,000 a decade ago--now it is closer to 100,000. That kind of explosive growth hit the wall with the housing bust, so Elk Grove is almost certainly going to have some housing troubles. The fact that it is an incorporated city already may help its progress, unlike suburban developments that lack their own leadership and are often cast adrift as soon as the suburb is no longer fashionable (case in point: South Sacramento.)

[Majin]

South Sacramento is 10x more fashionable than Elk Grove.

[Mr. Ozo]

Elk Grove is exactly what it was intended to be. The newer parts of Roseville look indentical to most of the new parts of Elk Grove. Roseville actually has a town center and jobs, but Elk Grove doesn't. Downtown Sacramento serves that function for Elk Grove.

[montreid]

Majin, I realize you feel that the Pocket area is worlds beyond other communities and in particular believe that Elk Grove is some dismal community. Looking at high school performances, those hood kids in EG beat the pants off Sac City schools in general, and they don't need a magnate system to do it either.

I do like the south Pocket area, but EG has its own lakes and gated communities too from Laguna or the higher end Kapalau Estates

[mattinsac]

The meme that Elk Grove is going to be a slum got started by this article in the Atlantic. It was written by a smart growth advocate named Christopher B. Leinberger who doesn't live here and honestly didn't really do his research. He thought because there were foreclosures in Elk Grove the neighborhood was going to hell, but subsequent events have shown the foreclosure problem was a nationwide event, not something unique to Elk Grove. His argument just doesn't stand the test of time.

The Next Slum? - The Atlantic (March 2008)

The median family income in Elk Grove is $84,628. That is more than 25k higher than the median family income in the City of Sacramento $57,101. It is almost 20k higher than the median family income in the County of Sacramento $66,812 and it is more than 15k higher than the median family income in the State of California $69,659. (This is using the most recent data from the census) In short if Elk Grove is a slum, its an extraordinarily prosperous one.

Elk Grove CDP, California - Fact Sheet - American FactFinder

Sacramento city, California - Fact Sheet - American FactFinder

Sacramento County, California - Fact Sheet - American FactFinder

California - Fact Sheet - American FactFinder


Now lets look at crime. Using FBI crime ratings, CQPress compiles a ranking of cities over 75,000 from lowest to highest. Cities with scores in parentheses are below the national average and cities with scores with out parentheses are above the national average. Again this is the most recent data available.

Of the 393 cities with a population above 75k, Elk Grove is ranked 96th with a score of (29.78). That is not far below Roseville with a score of (37.28) and a ranking of 80. Both of these cities had crime rates well below the national average. Now compare that with the City of Sacramento which ranked 336th had a score of 112.12 and had a crime rate well above the national average.

If Lienberger did his research, he probably should have argued if any that the next slum in the area was the City of Sacramento, not the City of Elk Grove. After all the crime rate is higher in the City of Sacramento, the average family incomes are lower in the City of Sacramento.

Now defenders of the City of Sacramento would argue that you shouldn't judge the City of Sacramento as a whole, but instead should look at it from the perspective of the various neighborhoods in the City of Sacramento because the neighborhoods in the city of Sacramento give a more honest appraisal of the crime rate in different parts of the city.

But I would say that is also true for the City of Elk Grove. The census puts Elk Groves population at 146,007. In any community that large there are going to be nicer neighborhoods and neighborhoods with some problems.

But I also think there is a huge subtext of racism at work. Of all of the suburban communities in the region, Elk Grove is the most diverse. 25.3% of Elk Grove is Asian. 11% of Elk Grove is African American. 18.1% is Hispanic. Only 46% is white.

For some people I really do think when they see someone who isn't white in a suburb, that the neighborhood has gone to hell. But the neighborhood hasn't. This is a map of schools ranked by api score on a 1 to 10 scale. 5 is average. The schools in Elk Grove vary from a few 6's several 9's and a lot of 7's and 8's. The schools in Elk Grove are above average.

California School Performance Maps

More importantly the schools have held up. His is a list of test scores in Sacramento County as well as a link to test scores in the county from past years. Pick a school on this list and then chose a list from a past year and look up the school on that list. What you are going to notice is that for most schools in Elk Grove the schools are doing as well or better than they were in any time frame you want to look at. I provide you with the lists so you don't think I am cherry picking the data.

Select Final Report Parameters

Select Final Report Parameters


Minority folks are moving to Elk Grove for the same reason white people move to Elk Grove, they want better schools with houses big enough for their families. Before Elk Grove was built, successful minority folk in this region had bad choices, they could send there kids to schools with other students who looked like them, but functioned poorly or they could send their kids to schools with peers of their social class, but their kids might not see many people at the school who looked like them. The schools in Elk Grove are diverse and well functioning.

[Majin]

I don't care what the statistics say about Elk Grove, it's a piece of garbage that is culturally void and the worst place to live in the United States, bar none.

For a population of 146,000, it has to have the worst jobs per resident ratio in the world and the worst infastuture per resident in the world. If you want to do anything other than shop at wal-mart you need to come into the "slum" of Sacramento.

Elk Grove is litterally the textbook example on how NOT to build a city. That city should be THE case study on what not to do in urban planning 101. The city manager should be fired and excommunicated from the national urban planning guild and never be allowed to work again in ANY job outside the fast food industry.