San Antonio Real Estate Market Cooling? (Houston, Dallas: foreclosures, credit, loan)

[hello13685]

I know. I'm a single professional who is in the education field. Given my roving spirit, I've not yet entered the housing market (also because I'm not sure where I want to live--it's so complicated what with weather, liberal vs. conservative population, etc.). It's a shame that I am nearly priced out, even in San Antonio!! It's rare now for single people to pursue careers in academe because they cannot support themselves in even the cheapest cities. I don't think it used to be that way.

[MichelleSG]

I'll totally agree that the market is outrageous. It's not just here though, it's everywhere. Well maybe not in the really small towns out in the middle of Kansas population po dunk 1000 but definitely in the 10-20 largest cities in America. There's not a lot in the way of theater or music here but there will be. Comes with the territory, if you build it they will come. San Diego didn't really have much either. Their opera is the only thing that's survived in the black, all the theater is in the red. Ballet, really no one goes unless it's teh Nutcracker. Food, now they did have food but that was only because Hillcrest became the newest gay hot spot and they do love the fine dining and clubbing! I really do miss Hillcrest, I could walk around there by myself at 2am and it was safe as houses. Busy as all get out and no one was going to harass me (my husband, not so much). And the food! Oh it's got great food....

[rvm]

I don't think San Antonio's Real Estate Appreciation is too far outside the norm.

That said, what San Antonio needs is more, higher salary employers. Not only will this supply buyers for those 15,000+ homes waiting to be built, it will also hopefully contribute to the creation/support of cultural activities.

SA needs employers!

[montevista1]

how can there be a slowdown when san antonio is the 5th cheapest metro city in the usa? san antonio can't get much cheaper.

[TXRose]

I don't understand why people move to San Antonio expecting it to be a fine arts mecca like San Francisco or Dallas, or have the cuisine of New York City.

Why can't you just let San Antonio be what it is, and not be upset that it's not changing just for you?

[passitup]

TxRose it right... enjoy the place for what it is... after 8 moves all over the country, I find that attitude is 75% of what brings happiness in a new place. We are here for three years and our realtor told us three years would be enough to "walk away free and clear". Meaning... the house would appreciate enough to pay the 6% to the realtor and our closing when we sell. He said to actually make money, you would need to stay longer than that... maybe that's to do with location... other areas might be hotter.

[TXRose]

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanantoni...=et77&hbx=e_du

This is an article released today by the business journal about texas housing market trends, stating that Texas is not following the national trend, especially Austin & San Antonio.

[Bowie]

Sales in my North Central neighborhood have slowed lately. There are more homes on the market than I've seen in the 5 years I've lived here. I was looking at the listings on MYSA last night and saw that a couple had even reduced the prices after several weeks on the market.

This doesn't bother me, as I'm not looking to sell and I'd like for my tax valuation to stop increasing so much every year.

[F10gear]

Originally Posted by TXRose

I don't understand why people move to San Antonio expecting it to be a fine arts mecca like San Francisco or Dallas, or have the cuisine of New York City.

Why can't you just let San Antonio be what it is, and not be upset that it's not changing just for you?

I think it is hard for people to believe that a city this size doesn't have what other major cities have. I don't think it is unreasonable to want or expect more from a city that has a population bigger than Dallas.

[professorsenator]

Those seeking to get an estimate of the "hotness" of a real estate market can do two things that will give them a rough numerical measure that might be helpful.

1. Go to realtor.com and take note of how many homes (not land or rentals-- single family homes or condos/townhouses) that are for sale in your targeted zip code. Do this weekly and make an Excel spreadsheet of the data. After a few months you should be able to notice a trend. Ceteris paribus, increasing housing inventory indicates a cooling market. OTOH, fewer homes for sale suggests a hotter market. (Note: this system works better in established neighborhoods where brand new houses are not entering the market).

2. Option two requires a realtor, but is more accurate and can be done faster. Ask your realtor to access through MLS the number of houses that have sold in each of the past three to six months. Through MLS also get the total number of houses for sale at the moment. Then divide the total for sale by the number sold in each month. This will give you an indication of the relative amount of inventory on the market.

For example, let's say that there's 50 houses for sale in a zip code, and there were 8 that sold in October, 10 sold in September, and 13 sold in August. This indicates there there's currently 6.25 months worth of inventory on the market (50/8=6.25), and based upon the sales trend the market is slowing. 1 to 3 months inventory is considered hot; over 12 months inventory is ice cold.

One caveat to the above: sales are cyclical and you must consider this in evaluating the data. Summer is peak selling season, and things always slow during the holidays. So the scenario I gave above (August to October) could be indicative of a general cooling trend; more likely its just the usual post-summer slowdown. The key thing to consider in addition to the trend data is the amount of inventory on the market. If there's >6 months of inventory the market, it would not be considered a hot market. 4-6 months worth is the historical norm in most U.S. markets.