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Old 01-05-2008, 09:37 AM
 
Location: Portland, OR
164 posts, read 504,428 times
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Here it is, my first post and I'm going negative...sorry to all the homeowners out there.

In my honest opinion the north of downtown (read Monte/alta Vista, Olmos Park/terrrace, beacon hill tobin etc..) San Antonio real estate market is still far overvalued. Ever since the nationwide housing market meltdown began, we've watched houses sit on the market for months on end...now it's becoming years. How can someone sit on a vacant house for over a year and not drop the price? Is it a pride thing?

Problem is, these people seem to be in denial on the prices. I've seen the same house sit there at the same value for far too long...add to that the rediculous PROPERTY TAX (rediculous!) and I'm thinking of taking my house money elsewhere. Moving.

Does anyone forsee prices dropping anytime soon? I really do like living in San Antonio...I work at a GREAT radio station, but I can't justify paying far too much for a house in an area with poor schools, no public transport and inferior infrastructure compared with other cities. Beyond that, the second mortgage payment (read: property tax) isn't very appealing either.

I promise to make a nice post about San Antonio next time...
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Old 01-05-2008, 09:51 AM
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Location: Ohio
16,814 posts, read 33,131,390 times
Reputation: 13587
Quote:
Originally Posted by manthechange View Post
Does anyone forsee prices dropping anytime soon?
That's a classic "be careful what you wish for..." question.

The discussion in this forum about big homebuilders pulling out of SA or scaling back new development is a sure sign of a slowdown in the housing market here. Don't confuse a slowdown with a reversal, though. The market has inertia, so it would take many months, maybe a couple of years of slowdown before prices begin to drop.

My perception is that the "old money" folks in those areas you mentioned would be loath to part with their massive old homes for less than the assessed value. If I'm correct, figure that it'll take more than a couple of years for assessments to drop in value on a widespread basis, because that has a direct effect on government revenue.
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Old 01-05-2008, 10:26 AM
 
Location: Here
10,864 posts, read 11,910,562 times
Reputation: 5981
I'll agree with you on the area(s) you mentioned. I occasionaly browse the home for sale sites and cannot believe the money some of these people think they can sell their "shacks" for.

Count me as someone who doesn't think much of the 09' area.
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Old 01-05-2008, 10:29 AM
 
374 posts, read 861,960 times
Reputation: 446
Wow. I'm not seeing that up in Schertz. We had 4 houses sell last month in my neighborhood and two of them were FSBO. Values up here are still increasing and new homes are going up fast. I think what you are seeing is only a neighborhood thing. Not SA as a whole.
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Old 01-05-2008, 10:30 AM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
8,400 posts, read 20,109,630 times
Reputation: 4435
Have you priced houses anywhere else in the country? Homes in San Antonio are far from being "overvalued." Having been in the military, and still working for it, I get a good idea of how prices are perceived here from the folks who move here. All are amazed at how much you can get for your housing dollar here as compared to the areas they came from. It is a major cause for the massive influx of people moving here from all over the country.

Nothing personal, but I never was led to believe that the radio industry is a well-paying one. Perhaps your thoughts are more linked to your income level and what you can afford when it comes to housing more so than how much homes are costing in those areas. Sheer statistics and figures would sucessfully argue that the home market in San Antonio is very dynamic and affordable, but everyone has their limits. I for one would love to own several acres of property in the hill country but it beyond my financial abilities (well, we could probably afford it, but not much else). That doesn't mean that the property out there is "overvalued"...

Cheers! M2
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Old 01-05-2008, 10:54 AM
 
Location: San Antonio
7,629 posts, read 14,341,690 times
Reputation: 18705
Quote:
Originally Posted by manthechange View Post
Here it is, my first post and I'm going negative...sorry to all the homeowners out there.

In my honest opinion the north of downtown (read Monte/alta Vista, Olmos Park/terrrace, beacon hill tobin etc..) San Antonio real estate market is still far overvalued. Ever since the nationwide housing market meltdown began, we've watched houses sit on the market for months on end...now it's becoming years. How can someone sit on a vacant house for over a year and not drop the price? Is it a pride thing?

Problem is, these people seem to be in denial on the prices. I've seen the same house sit there at the same value for far too long...add to that the rediculous PROPERTY TAX (rediculous!) and I'm thinking of taking my house money elsewhere. Moving.

Does anyone forsee prices dropping anytime soon? I really do like living in San Antonio...I work at a GREAT radio station, but I can't justify paying far too much for a house in an area with poor schools, no public transport and inferior infrastructure compared with other cities. Beyond that, the second mortgage payment (read: property tax) isn't very appealing either.

I promise to make a nice post about San Antonio next time...

You bring up a valid point...but only partially.

There ARE certain areas of SA ('09 zip is only one of them) where the prices are inflated over the majority of SA...but it is a supply and demand issue. Great schools, coveted neighborhood..being one of the "in" places to be!

I think the existing housing market has slowed considerable in SA because there was about a 7-8 month supply of NEW homes being built (help my here Jules07, that is about correct, right???) and those builders are drastically cutting the prices to move that inventory.

Having said that, once the NEW home inventory gets balanced out...you will find the existing home bounce back.

In the mean time, we have never seen the 50-80% totally crazy appreciation that Vegas and other parts of the West/East coast have seen...slow and steady growth. I think that is why we are not seeing the issues that you raise about depreciation on them during this housing bubble burst either.

I personally feel that SA will see housing prices climb in the next 5-8 years like never before seen in this city...all due to the job growth and demand.
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Old 01-05-2008, 10:56 AM
 
Location: Here
10,864 posts, read 11,910,562 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hamjeepr View Post
Wow. I'm not seeing that up in Schertz. We had 4 houses sell last month in my neighborhood and two of them were FSBO. Values up here are still increasing and new homes are going up fast. I think what you are seeing is only a neighborhood thing. Not SA as a whole.
Agree with this 100%! I definitely do not see the SA area as a whole being overpriced.
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Old 01-05-2008, 11:16 AM
 
418 posts, read 1,111,719 times
Reputation: 104
Quote:
Originally Posted by manthechange View Post
Here it is, my first post and I'm going negative...sorry to all the homeowners out there.

In my honest opinion the north of downtown (read Monte/alta Vista, Olmos Park/terrrace, beacon hill tobin etc..) San Antonio real estate market is still far overvalued. Ever since the nationwide housing market meltdown began, we've watched houses sit on the market for months on end...now it's becoming years. How can someone sit on a vacant house for over a year and not drop the price? Is it a pride thing?
High end homes in San Antonio just don't sell fast. In the 10 years I've been here, I don't think that has changed at all. There is a very limited supply of millionaires buying homes in this city.

If someone rational buys a $1mil+ home, they have to anticipate that they may not sell their home for 1 or 2 years no matter what reasonable price they set.
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Old 01-05-2008, 11:20 AM
 
10,419 posts, read 12,674,053 times
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Price is set by supply and demand. That will never change.
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Old 01-05-2008, 11:23 AM
 
Location: Washington, DC & San Antonio, TX
790 posts, read 3,616,456 times
Reputation: 516
Quote:
Originally Posted by manthechange View Post
In my honest opinion the north of downtown (read Monte/alta Vista, Olmos Park/terrrace, beacon hill tobin etc..) San Antonio real estate market is still far overvalued. Ever since the nationwide housing market meltdown began, we've watched houses sit on the market for months on end...now it's becoming years. How can someone sit on a vacant house for over a year and not drop the price? Problem is, these people seem to be in denial on the prices.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hamjeepr View Post
I think what you are seeing is only a neighborhood thing. Not SA as a whole.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paka View Post
There ARE certain areas of SA ('09 zip is only one of them) where the prices are inflated over the majority of SA...but it is a supply and demand issue. Great schools, coveted neighborhood..being one of the "in" places to be!
I agree with manthechange that certain inner/urban neighborhoods still feel overvalued/overpriced. While Paka is right that some neighborhoods with good school districts deserve their strong housing values, I find the pricing in some of the more transitional neighborhoods pretty speculative. Monte Vista gets away with its high prices despite being in SAISD because it's Monte Vista - beautiful historic houses with lots of character, convenient to downtown and Tri-Cities area, and the neighborhood is completely renovated/developed with very high OO rate. However, I don't get why home prices are so steep in Alta Visa, Tobin Hill, Mahncke Park and Beacon Hill - when they're all also in SAISD, are much more "transitional" in neighborhood redevelopment/renewal,and with much lower OO rates.

I have been trying to buy a house in Mahncke Park for the last six months and refuse to pay $180K for a 3/1 that has not been improved at all since it sold 5 years ago for $105K, and that has no garage or central A/C and will need at least $30K in renovations. Yet the house sits there vacant and the owner will not budge. My theory is that owners in these urban transitional neighborhoods are simply biding their time for the right out-of-state buyer who wants to be close to downtown and sees SA's prices as a bargain, even if they are overpriced for the local market. The excitement around River North development is keeping these areas overpriced, despite the fact that it will be years before we see big changes to the neighborhoods.
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