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Old 01-27-2008, 06:31 PM
 
32 posts, read 58,321 times
Reputation: 16
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevcrawford View Post
Two points and I'm done with the conversation:

A. The MLS isn't a "Realtor web site". It's a database that you can get the sold prices of 99.9% of the homes in the city. We don't make up the numbers that go there.

B. If you're basing your stats off of 10 total homes, then yes, one $1 million dollar property will skew everything. If you're basing it off of 20,000, the hundred or so million dollar homes won't have but the slightest effect.

Property values haven't fallen 10%. I've yet to see where you're getting this stat. For property to fall 50% in Boerne, the whole town would implode. That's a ridiculous prediction. That means $300,000 homes will now sell for $150,000? $1 million for $500,000? That doesn't happen unless those homes are 50% overvalued. If you've got $400,000 KB box homes in there on .1 acres, then maybe you'll be right. But when the $500,000 homes are 4000sf on almost an acre, barrel tile roof, granite, wood floors, pool, etc, I tend to think those will hold values. Building costs don't match up with your "prediction". Ask any builder. If that did happen, I'd be the first one in there buying blocks of homes. Won't happen.

There's really nothing else to say though, because this will just go on and on. Good try though. I admire the enthusiasm.
Thank you Kevin you are gracious. I will close this out now and with your indulgence have the last word.

The most important point is that when I talk about drops I always refer to Real prices; by this I include Inflation. For example we are off 2006 prices by 10% in Real terms i.e. 5% drop plus 5% inflation. I am an Investor and Real prices are the only thing that matters to me.

For house prices in Boerne to drop 50% this will require a 25% drop in nominal prices and in 5 years inflation will do the rest. Yes prices in Boerne are inflated. I have seen plots go from 20K in 2003 to 125K now. This will not last. However as you said yourself Real Estate is all about confidence and like any good Ponzie scheme we have to make sure that the cancer of bad press does not spread.

On a personal note I am very happy to see flat or modestly increasing house prices. What happend in California was simply the greatest transfer of wealth from the young generation to the older generation - but thankfully this has now corrected and house prices are back within the reach of ordinary folks.

This is also why I own a house in SA and why I love this city. It is great to live in a city where house prices are affordable and where our children can also afford to live. Long may it last!

We just have to be vigilant and reign in the Real Estate Industry so that it does not get ahead of itself and push house prices out of the reach of most people.

Thanks for the discussion.

Last edited by Berlin1980; 01-27-2008 at 06:32 PM.. Reason: Typo
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Old 01-27-2008, 07:39 PM
 
Location: San Antonio
4,049 posts, read 6,055,972 times
Reputation: 3060
Good discussion. Too often these turn into name calling games. We'll just have to agree to disagree and see what happens.
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Old 01-27-2008, 08:07 PM
 
Location: San Antonio
944 posts, read 2,043,462 times
Reputation: 255
Someone asked why I believe my realtor. I don't. Bless her heart, she talks the same points that kevcrawford does, and I just smile and "uh-huh." I did think that the elimination of creative financing options was an interesting point she made, though.

Kevcrawford mentioned that the less-qualified buyers are now out of the market, leaving only the more qualified ones. Less buyers. Hmm, what's that principle called... supply and demand? But as we all know, supply and demand has no effect on pricing, especially when people's 6% is involved
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Old 01-28-2008, 05:38 AM
 
Location: San Antonio
4,049 posts, read 6,055,972 times
Reputation: 3060
Why do you have a Realtor if we're always wrong? I think you've made it pretty clear that you don't believe anything says and that you're a complete expert on real estate, between your posts calling everyone wrong for not renting like you and your childish PMs that you send. It seems like you're trolling anytime a real estate question pops up.
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Old 01-28-2008, 11:29 AM
 
Location: San Antonio
944 posts, read 2,043,462 times
Reputation: 255
Hi there, I'm not an expert on real estate, but I do a lot of studying. I have a realtor so I can dabble and look at places; but because I know her pay depends on a certain line of B.S., I don't believe everything she says. I don't at all think it's bad to own if you bought years ago. And as has always been the case in these forums, it's easier to write people off as trolls than to accept their discordant perspectives. Peace!
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Old 01-28-2008, 11:52 AM
 
Location: San Antonio
4,049 posts, read 6,055,972 times
Reputation: 3060
Your discordant perspectives are always being negative about everything. You come across as someone who disagrees to disagree, therefor your "perspectives" come across as a troll. This is the case in all your posts. It's a shame you think your Realtor is feeding you BS. If she is, she should have her license stripped. I doubt that's the case though. It appears that she's just being used.
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