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Old 02-01-2016, 11:39 AM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
425 posts, read 359,142 times
Reputation: 207

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Did the El Niño fizzle out ?
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Old 02-01-2016, 11:46 AM
 
Location: San Antonio
3,742 posts, read 3,842,774 times
Reputation: 3195
No it is still going strong.
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Old 02-01-2016, 12:39 PM
 
351 posts, read 447,635 times
Reputation: 228
Brought to you by the same people who pretend to know what the climate will be like a century from now.
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Old 02-01-2016, 01:50 PM
 
108 posts, read 84,787 times
Reputation: 102
This weather is typical for this time of year. If we get ice and frozen pipes it will happen in February if doesn't happen for the Cowboy Breakfast. I have a green house but I rarely use it. It never freezes in March but it does get windy. Tie everything down.
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Old 02-01-2016, 09:40 PM
 
Location: San Antonio
227 posts, read 280,688 times
Reputation: 283
Who made that promise???

Was it GOD???

Otherwise it was only a guess. The weather men/women cant get today right, let alone the future.
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Old 02-01-2016, 10:06 PM
 
520 posts, read 600,652 times
Reputation: 489
Meteorologists actually have an 80% accuracy rate, which is pretty good given all of the variables involved. The misconception that they are always wrong centers around some misunderstanding the Probability of Precipitation (PoP) - usually called chance of rain/snow/etc.

PoP = Confidence x Area for a forecast area

So if the forecaster is a 100% confident that it will rain on 10% of his forecast reporting area he will say there is a 10% chance of rain. Pretty accurate if you are in that 90% of the area that doesn't see rain, but seems flat out wrong if you are in that 10% area.
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Old 02-01-2016, 10:16 PM
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Location: Ohio
16,814 posts, read 33,128,139 times
Reputation: 13587
If this year's El Nino is a bust, you'll have trouble convincing people in Hawaii.

https://www.rt.com/news/330488-wipeo...-peahi-hawaii/
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Old 02-03-2016, 12:41 AM
 
Location: TX
3,929 posts, read 4,686,415 times
Reputation: 4370
El Nino doesn't mean rain everywhere, some places get drought instead. But here in Texas it normally means an unusual amount of rain for our area. And really, some places (like Hawaii) just about always get much more rain than Texas, no matter what. Personally, I think that El Nino is fizzling out and the weather experts just haven't caught on yet. We do need rain...it's very dry!
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Old 02-07-2016, 08:00 AM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
425 posts, read 359,142 times
Reputation: 207
weatherman this morning was warning another week or two of no rain could mean drought time

I'm betting on a normal springtime with a few good rains...
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Old 02-08-2016, 07:49 AM
 
2,057 posts, read 3,142,964 times
Reputation: 980
Farmer's Almanac is forecasting a possible drought:

2016 Long Range Weather Forecast for Texas-Oklahoma | Old Farmer's Almanac

However, nothing is set in stone, to Rick's point.
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