San Antonio in the path of Hurricane Ike? (Austin, Center: school, area)

[ChrisSA_wxatUIW]

Originally Posted by Eastender67

. . . Carla came through and made a big mess of things. (LaGrange is about the same distance inland as is San Antonio. You can do a Google search and read about the damage).

Hurricane damage is not limited to coastal areas by any means. Probably, San Antonio won't be touched by Ike but that's not to say it can not happen. Not to worry though as many, many Texas inhabitants are ignorant when the subject is hurricanes. Hurricanes are not, by law, limited to destroying only coastal properties. They pretty much do as they wish.

We could depending on how fast the storm is moving! If it lands as a Cat 4 or 5, and is moving at say, 25kts (which is fast, but for the sake of argument), it could still have a Cat 2-3 strength by the time it reaches San Antonio


btw thanks Anthony for posting the computer models, I always have a hard time finding those things. Do you have the site where you get that info?

NWS is calling it a Cat 3 (landfall) right now, but the sea surface temps in the gulf are just so warm, and Ike is so well organized, that I would not be suprised if it strengthens to a 4 or 5. We'll just have to keep a "weathered eye" on this storm (do you like my pun?)

[Chaka]

I'm not sure where Anthony gets his models, but the sites we use are noaa.gov and stormpulse.com, wunderground.com also has some good pics.

[little_thirsty]

I have friends in Baton Rouge who just yesterday got power from the last hurricane. We lived there when Andrew hit and I was out of school for two weeks. It can be rough inland too. Be safe and just prepare. Best case you prepare and you have extra stuff around the house!

[sapphire]

Just curious.......have any businesses or schools thought about closing up shop on Friday? My place of business is usually right on top of situations like this, so we are expecting to hear in a day or two if they've made any type of decision. I'm also interested in NISD.

[scuba steve]

So it looks like 45mph winds wouldn't be unexpected, based on the latest models?

[AnthonySA]

Yep, morning models shifted south between Corpus/Brownsville. Afternoon models shifted north between Corpus and Houston... still plenty of tracking to do folks.

The 12Z GFS hits Matagorda
The 12Z HWRF hits Victoria
The 12Z GFDL hits Matagorda
The 12Z CMC hits Houston

Spaghetti plots will be updated in an hour or so.

[Bo]

Originally Posted by scuba steve

So it looks like 45mph winds wouldn't be unexpected, based on the latest models?

Yesterday I saw a wind chart on the NOAA site where the track map comes from that said there was a 1-2 percent chance that SA would see winds of 64 knots (74 mph) or greater on Saturday and a 10-15 percent chance of winds of 34 knots (39 mph) or greater.

As much as the track keeps shifting, it's still too soon to tell.

I just heard a meteorologist at Accuweather say that the current track would put SA in the most likely quadrant for storm-generated tornadoes.

[AnthonySA]

Here goes the new models... and the northern shift.


12Z-Late


18Z-Early
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/atcf/18zatcfearlyinvest1best.gif (broken link)

[zs_crew]

OK can you break this new model down? Steve Brown was showing a "spaghetti model" on the noon news and saying that the PURPLE track was the most likely track and had it straight for Corpus. My brother down in Edinburg just called to say they are initiating emergency procedures at his work (at the University) because THEY are supposed to get a direct hit.I am so confused! Should I just grab the kids and head up to Ft Hood with some friends or tough it out here?

[AnthonySA]

Each line deliniates an interpolation of a particular computer model's track of Hurricane Ike. As you can see from earlier models and the current ones, there is plenty of room for error as to where landfall would be. Anyone along the Texas coast should be preparing for a possible direct hit at this time as it is just way too early to pinpoint a landfall from a storm that is 1000 miles away.

Now as far as the impacts here in SA, the worst case scenario would be that we get hurricane force gusts, or even possibly hurricane force winds if a fast moving cat 4 or 5 hurricane made landfall in Corpus Christi. Tropical storm force winds would be more likely here... so I personally wouldn't recommend evacuating. If we are on the northside of the storm, we'll get the heaviest rains and isolated tornadoes like we saw with Dolly as well.

As far as preparations go.. I recommend that you stock up on nonperishable foods, medicine and gas in case of power outages (it doesnt take much to knock over a power line). Also make sure you finish your yard work and secure any lawn furniture that can blow around and become unnecessary projectiles.