San Antonio Existing Median Home Price Falls 7% in 2008 - Will 2009 Appraisals Drop? (Howe: for sale, mortgage)

[Paka]

Yes... I am certain that you, the all knowing renter who will not commit to buying a house ANYWHERE knows all about the housing market FAR better than anyone invested in it or Zillow.com. who is a company that only make their LIVING (and a damn good one at that) doing what they do compairing sales figures and market values...what the heck would they know????


Give it up girlfriend, there are those areas that ARE showing stability and price increases due to the location and demand, and there are businesses whos job it is to monitor what is going on where in this market. For those of you who sit in your apt while your clothes wash at the complex washroom looking at real estate brochures and feel knowledgable, forgive me, but I'll take the info offered by people making a living at it over your opinion anyday. Owning several properties, this has served us well in the past, and I feel confident will in the future. Of course, for those INVESTED in the market, we take the risk of losses and the rewards of gains...but I am hear to tell you that the rental market has gotten STRONGER in SA for those with investment properties in the right neighborhoods and we are laughing all the way to the bank to these days...can you say the same???

Zillow stats:

Show as: % $ % annualized
Past: This
home 78253 San Antonio Bexar TX US
30 days 1.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 0.3% -1.2%
1 year 2.1% 5.9% 2.8% 3.6% 1.1% -10.1%
5 years 38.0% 51.4% 61.1% 60.2% 30.1% 17.1%
10 years

[Paka]

[quote=Eleanor Rigby;7040019]Over here in the Alamo Heights/Olmos Park/Terrell Hills triangle, we are waiting for housing Armageddon, ie, the day that AT&T's relo company starts drastically cutting the prices on the houses being vacated by executives moving to Dallas. When that happens, that is going to lead to a much needed pricing correction. In the long term, it's going to benefit the area, because when starter homes are going for $400,000 you know there's a problem. However, it's going to be disastrous in the short term for everyone who has a home on the market.


Not necessarily...the statistics show you will have many more medical professionals being added to the local area with the BRAC and the increases in teaching and positions at BAMC than will be lost thru the ATT relocation.

I think you will find that there will be those upper levels that might correct, but the demand will be there and keep the prices more stable than what might otherwise be expected.

Like it or not, the military officers have STEADY income...while other industries that might pay more have the volatility with this economy.

[firstclassflyer]

Originally Posted by Paka

Yes... I am certain that you, the all knowing renter who will not commit to buying a house ANYWHERE knows all about the housing market FAR better than anyone invested in it or Zillow.com. who is a company that only make their LIVING (and a damn good one at that) doing what they do compairing sales figures and market values...what the heck would they know????


Give it up girlfriend, there are those areas that ARE showing stability and price increases due to the location and demand, and there are businesses whos job it is to monitor what is going on where in this market. For those of you who sit in your apt while your clothes wash at the complex washroom looking at real estate brochures and feel knowledgable, forgive me, but I'll take the info offered by people making a living at it over your opinion anyday. Owning several properties, this has served us well in the past, and I feel confident will in the future. Can you say the same????

Git 'er done Paka! Bravo!!

[Paka]

No disrespect to renters....LOVE them actually! They pay me money to put in the bank monthly and we have been blessed with WONDERFUL renters! But then, we work hard at maintaining our properties and being good landlords as well. We have been told by more than one set of renters how much they appreciate our immediate responsiveness and encouragement to make improvements that we discuss that they want to enjoy and we will pay the cost if they do the work.

Having said that, I would not have my hair done by someone with screwed up hair, do not need parenting advice from those that have no children, and do not need real estate advice from someone that has not experience...

There are those with big fancy college degrees that can't seem to make ends meet financially and then there is the country Joe who has just used common sense to invest and mange his assets...I will take the advice of that Joe any day of the week!

No bubble here, if your properties are PAID FOR, you just enjoy the income they provide.

SA is not imune from this downturn, but we are certainly MUCH better off than many parts of the country...and should be grateful and happy that we made such SOUND investment decisions in the BEST darn city in Texas!!!

[hello13685]

Originally Posted by Paka

and there are businesses whos job it is to monitor what is going on where in this market. For those of you who sit in your apt while your clothes wash at the complex washroom looking at real estate brochures and feel knowledgable, forgive me, but I'll take the info offered by people making a living at it over your opinion anyday.

Yes, and that article reported that these "experts" whose job it is to know the market were the ones shaking their heads in confusion!! That was my major point (other than your ignorance of statistics that all college freshmen learn). So, yes, go ahead and listen to the experts, and the much discredited zillow.com. These companies are there to offer you unbiased information because they and their sponsors stand to gain nothing in an inflated market.

[dvlpr]

Originally Posted by hello13685

I believe that you are wrong, Paka. The reason that they report the median price (and not the average, or mean, price) is that the median is the most reliable measure of central tendency when a data distribution is skewed (as it is with housing). In other words, a median figure is NOT susceptible to the McMansion vs. $70,000 price disparities that you cite. Those types of disparities with "outliers" influence averages (or means). That's why only medians are reported. I'm a statistician, so I'm just sayin'

This should all be very interesting as it unwinds. This article bring us to the second stage of San Antonio housing denial. When will the others sink in?

Stage 1: Housing declines are hitting the rest of the coutry (but SA is different)!
Stage 2: Housing declines are hitting San Antonio, but not my neighborhood! (It's different in my part of town.)
Stage 3: Housing declines have hit my street (but my house is different)!
Stage 4: R.I.P.

No city is immune from real estate devaluations, including SA. But a couple of things to consider (though it's pretty clear you're rooting for values to fall):

1. SA was ranked 6th nationally in new jobs created in 2008 (overall, not on a percentage basis). And Texas was responsible for almost 60% of all new jobs created in the US in 2008. Historically, provided that there's neutral or positive job growth, residential real estate markets stay in good shape.

2. Out of the 50 largest MSAs in the US, SA has the lowest level of finished vacant home inventories. While there are still too many houses in inventory, we are quite literally in better shape than any other major metro area in the country (with respect to residential markets).

Of course, it's true that residential real estate in TX remains a mediocre investment (mostly due to our property tax structure). And if we start to see job losses, and the national economy continues to disintegrate, then it's probable that home values in SA will fall.

Surely you're smart enough to understand that purchasing a house contains a significant measure of risk (as does purchasing stocks/equities, or commodities, or dollars, or gold, etc.). There's just no way around that, now, or in 10 years, or in 100 years.

But people like you who insist that residential real estate in SA is overvalued and bound for a big fall (despite lots of evidence and arguments to the contrary) are just as silly as people who claim that real estate values only go up and up forever.

[Paka]

Amen....think that some here think you should take your cash and bury it in the backyard in a coffee can to keep it "safe" not realizing they loose on money by not investing it so that it stays ahead of inflation. What $20 bought 10 yrs ago is NOT what you could get for $20 today and it will be seriously different 10 yrs from now as well. You can't just stick it under the mattress...youhave to make it WORK for you!

"There are only two types in this world, those that work for money and those that make their money work for them." Can't remember where I read this to give credit where credit is due on the quote, but still rings true, and to date, real estate as been an EXCELLENT investment and the rent derived and the increased value have both worked well for us. Passive income is a GOOD thing!

[Eleanor Rigby]

Gosh, for my personal benefit, I hope you're right....we would be on the receiving end of the lower prices if that does happen and we'd love to be able to consider more options in the closer-in neighborhoods . I guess only time will tell...

I hope I'm right for your sake, too! I hate that the area has become so overpriced that nice families like yours can't move in, and instead have to look at other areas, because without younger families, and fresh blood, neighborhoods stagnate. I am not saying this has happened in Olmos Park or Alamo Heights, per se, but I just think that a healthy community is one where there is a wider demographic range. I use Olmos Park as an example, because I grew up there, but it works for other bedroom communities. Olmos Park is set up so that multiple groups up and down the ladder can live there - renters in the apartment homes and duplexes on Olmos Drive and on the corners of McCullough, young families in the smaller homes on the edges, and more established households as it moves farther in, all the way to the enormous homes on Contour and Alameda Circle. This biosystem, however, has been interrupted because of the spike in prices, so whereas before a family like yours could get a foot on the ladder by purchasing a small home on Mariposa, for example, and in return, enrich the neighborhood by pumping new, younger blood into it, now those starter homes are priced so high they aren't really even "starters". The prices skew the neighborhood older and drain some of its vitality.

Anyways, that's my tl;dr theory on why a price correction in Olmos Park and Alamo Heights will be a good thing in the long run, because people like you will be able to become part of the community.

[SAnative]

I visit realtor.com from time to time just to see how prices are doing in WestCreek and I have noticed a definite trend in the downward direction.....homes listed for 150k that a year ago would've been listed around 165k or more!! I also have seen more homes listed at a higher price only to be reduced in a few weeks. Those that are priced at last year's prices just sit for a long time.
It'll sure be interesting to see just how low prices will go around here!

[scuba steve]

So my big question is, when do these appraisals come around and what's the timeline for appealing? The 2008 one was already way above the actual value of the house, based on the fact that it was on the market for a year.