Will San Antonio Housing Market Stay Strong? (Alamo, Vega: days on market, sales)

[bigthirsty]

Given the recent housing news around the country:

http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/sdprices.html

http://www.chicagotribune.com/busine...ef=patrick.net

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servl...ef=patrick.net

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/fin...ef=patrick.net

http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/27/real...ion=2007032716

Does anyone worry how San Antonio will fare? I guess credit tightening could hurt some. Thoughts?

More of just a thought provoking thread than looking for insight.

[Twinkle Toes]

None of this is San Antonio - or even Texas - specific. It's info we already know because we hear about it every single day!

[bigthirsty]

The post was about the housing market in general and if the woes of other markets would spill over into San Antonio.

but here are some local links..

http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/realestate/stories/MYSA032407.01D.hendricks.3020b91.html (broken link)

http://www.mysanantonio.com/business...s.240e19e.html

http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/realestate/stories/MYSA030207.01A.SanAntonioMortgageCrisis.36d2689.ht ml (broken link)

"In the past three months, most mortgage lenders have begun requiring San Antonio borrowers to have at least a 600 credit score, up from 580, to get a loan for the full value of a house.

Forty-three percent of Alamo City residents have credit scores of 600 or less, vs. 28 percent nationwide, according to the Experian credit reporting agency. San Antonians are 50 percent more likely to have scores under 580 than the rest of the country."

[SAnative]

I think S.A. is still pretty strong but certainly not immune to the current real estate sub-prime implosion. It will be interesting to see how the "higher end" housing does since more and more people won't be able to over-extend themselves as easily as before.

[Twinkle Toes]

Not everyone who bought "higher end" is over-extending themselves, or has a sub-prime mortgage.

[bigthirsty]

If you have to sell your house (higher end/medium end/lower end) and credit has tightened up will you have a buyer who can afford the house.

If not then house price drops.

[hello13685]

I'd think that the seller of a higher end house would not have more difficulty than before, because the buyer would likely NOT be in the subprime market. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I suspect that the subprime borrowers got into the houses of the $60,000 to 200,000 range.

[kevcrawford]

For the most part, that's correct. The subprime damage is slowing a little. The good lenders and brokers have some solid programs that can still help people that would have traditionally done a subprime. There are a few buyers that are going to be out of luck until they get their credit scores back up. The biggest ones affected are no doc, 100% financing (80/20) loans.

While the market is hurting elsewhere, we're still really hot and it looks like we'll continue to be. The rates are still historically low, even though they've got up a little, so buyers are still able to afford a lot of house. The markets that are hurting had gotten so overvalued over the last few years that people just can't afford to live there, even with higher salaries.

It doesn't look like we're going to have that problem here. In SA, we've still got a ton of land to build on, so that helps keep the current properties in check as far as pricing. Places like Chicago and NYC have nowhere to go, so they just raise the prices.

Totally different markets. We just don't have the national media in Texas.

For the luxury market ($500K+), that never really changes. People with money are usually not relying on the market. I've got a few luxury clients right now and they haven't been bothered at all by the market. In fact, a lot of the out-of-state ones are moving here because there are really amazing deals to be had still.

[hello13685]

Kevcrawford, do you have a link you could post that might show a month-to-month barchart comparison of SA's sales volume compared to a formerly "hot" market or two? I remember seeing one that showed that SA's sales have steadied at a relatively LOW level compared to last year, so that would indicate that the market in SA is not really that "hot." Thanks.

[kevcrawford]

I don't have a link to anything like that. What I do have is experience in the market right now and know that I've got a lot of contracts for both buyers and sellers right now. Charts can show you whatever you want to see, but talk to a good Realtor in the city, and most likely, they're incredibly busy, which means a hot market. I know that we're projecting about a 7% growth this year in property values.

Are we going to grow like Vegas, Phoenix or LA did in the last 10 years? Nope. But that's good, because with a ridiculous growth like that, come hard crashes.

The average days on market right now is pretty short.