Strong Storms Tuesday (San Antonio, Austin, New Braunfels: tornadoes, moving, service)

[AnthonySA]

Just a quick heads up for all of us in South Central Texas --- pretty good shot at some rain tomorrow, some of which could be severe.

My kind of weather

Links for more on the storms (all National Weather Service - Public Domain):

Storm Prediction Center - Severe Storm Outlooks
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

San Antonio Local Weather Forecast
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/Map...te=TX&site=EWX


The main concern will be flash flooding, thunder and lightning, and we could get some hail and possibly a tornado warning tomorrow.

Stay safe and Happy Fiesta

[AnthonySA]

Pardon the jargon, but here goes some of the forecast discussion from our local National Weather Service Office.

A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWFA BEGINNING
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z WED. AN IMPULSE IN
ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWFA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS. THE
LINE OF STORMS WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND MOVE ESE EXITING THE EASTERN COUNTIES
BEFORE NOON WEDNESDAY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE SQUALL LINE IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

INITIALLY THE SEVERE WX THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...TRANSITIONING TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GFS/NAM MODEL QPF`S ARE DEPICTING 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
PLEASE REFER TO THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK (SWODT2) ISSUED BY
SPC FOR MORE DETAILS.

Special Weather Statement:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
619 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-240300-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDE RICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
619 PM CDT MON APR 23 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TUESDAY AND PUSH A DRY LINE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE ALONG THE
DRYLINE...AND POSSIBLY OUT AHEAD OF IT TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS EVENT.

IN ADDITION...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THE DRY LINE
INTERACTS WITH MOIST GULF AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS OUR AREA. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

PEOPLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS SHOULD STAY ON TOP OF THIS EVENT
AS IT UNFOLDS ON TUESDAY AND MAKE PLANS ACCORDINGLY.

GO TO WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/EWX FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION...FORECASTS
AND WARNINGS.

$$

On a lighter note, I have officially reached "Senior Member" status

[texasdreamin]

With all of the rain in the last few months, are all of the lakes and rivers back up to where they should be? Is the drought over?

[AnthonySA]

These are three different models that measure the severity of a drought:
http://webgis.tamu.edu/tfs/kbdi_daily/kbdicounty.png
http://www.txwin.net/Monitoring/Mete...ought/pdsi.htm
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/DM_state.htm?TX,S

And according to these, the drought is pretty much over for San Antonio and points east, while still going a bit for the Del Rio area. That is great news, considering at the same time last year we were on the opposite end of the spectrum. The additional rain tomorrow will definitely continue to help things out here

[hello13685]

Yay, I can't wait. I love the storms!

[Twinkle Toes]

Hey wait - I thought everyone said the weather is great here and that it hardly ever rains.

[AnthonySA]

Well, I'm not going to lie and say that San Antonio is as dry as Palm Desert, CA... but on a normal basis our weather is much better than this (better being objective, because I like strong storms .). March 2007 was the wettest March in over 120 years of records.

From my observations, we go in spurts here -- feast or famine; either NO RAIN or a TON OF RAIN, with very little change in the overall weather pattern.

By the end of this spring and into the summer, things will pretty much dry out and heat up as our only hope of precip comes from the Gulf of Mexico during those months.

[TXRose]

The weather is great here, despite the 100+ degree Augusts.

And this is the wettest spring we've had for years. Please forgive us if we are excited to get some good rain before the summer drought hits, so that we hopefully won't have to be on Stage 2 water restrictions this year. But I'm sure you know all about water restrictions, coming from California and all. At least we don't have rolling blackouts.

[01Snake]

I love the rain!

[210]

Originally Posted by Twinkle Toes

Hey wait - I thought everyone said the weather is great here and that it hardly ever rains.

This has been an extremely unusual spring.