20 inches of rain coming! (Dallas, San Antonio: to buy, airport, estimated)

[lcw]

Alarms blaring for major flood

Five-day rainfall forecast issued Friday afternoon by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

Flooding alert graphic from the New Braunfels NWS office; click here for full-size version.

With a stationary front to the northwest, an upper-level storm system approaching slowly, and lots of tropical moisture, we are set for a potential major flood, similar to October 1998 and July 2002. Forecasters did not begin to see this potential until late Thursday. Before then, it was just going to be scattered showers, not much worse than what we had nearly a week ago.

The rain Thursday night into Friday morning was just an appetizer, enough to cause a short period of major flooding on the Pedernales River. In western Val Verde County, the Devils River had moderate flooding. The Guadalupe River briefly had moderate flooding at Hunt, then minor flooding downstream. For more details, see the forecast from the West Gulf River Forecast Center.

According to preliminary storm reports, flash flooding occurred in or near Killeen, Fort Worth, Junction, Alice, Edcouch, Elsa, Edinburg, Santa Rosa, Harlingen, San Benito, San Perlita, Raymondville, Kerrville, Del Rio, Bandera, Fredericksburg, Rocksprings, Ingram, Medina, Llano and Round Rock.

As of Friday afternoon, San Antonio International Airport had recorded 1.17 inches for the day, 2.39 for the month and 18.65 for the year. Following are a few NWS volunteer observers’ reports of rainfall for a 24-hour period ending at 7 a.m. Friday: 3.53 in Dallas, 4.15 at Fort Hood, 2.77 at Rio Grande Valley International Airport, 2.91 in Raymondville, 1.23 in the Bulverde area, 5.03 at Fredericksburg, 4.08 near Del Rio, 2.20 near Carizzo Springs, 2.14 near Pearsall, 2.01 at Laredo’s Columbia Bridge, and 4.54 at the Cotulla airport. Radar estimated 8 inches in the Fredericksburg and Kerrville areas.

The disturbance that affected us Friday morning was causing rain over North Texas in the evening, as well as a line of storms that had moved out into the Gulf. South Texas was enjoying a reprieve, but another thunderstorm complex was expected Saturday morning. Forecasters expect more rain off and on through Tuesday.

Most of South and South Central Texas have flash flood watches through Saturday evening, and I expect them to be extended. The New Braunfels forecasters expected 2-4 inches in general and up to 10 inches possible, just through Saturday. As shown in the image above, they expect 5-10 inches average over 5 days, and 20 inches in a few spots.

The image above is a “Graphicast” and this is the first time I have seen the New Braunfels office do one. Some other NWS offices do them either on a daily basis or whenever there is hazardous weather expected.

[sapphire]

The flood in '98 was horrendous, and the one in '02 was almost as bad. I hope and pray that it doesn't happen again.

[TexasNick]

Remember folks, if water is at the halfway mark on your hub caps, don't drive in it.

Most deaths are from people thinking their macho cars can handle the water. Nope. Water against car doors is stronger than steel--u won't be able to open your doors..and if the car's electrical system shuts down, you won't be able to open your windows (unless u have manual locks --another reason why automatic windows are a bad idea).

[rd2007]

Seems to me that rain is a feast or famine thing here in SA.. Last year was an awful famine and so far this year has been an amazing feast. It sucks that my cars are spending more time dirty than clean, but it's nice to have not watered the lawn since last fall..

one of those glass breaking hammers is a good thing to have in the car and that reminds me (again) that I really need to buy a few of those.. even though I tend to be much smarter than the average bear when it comes to knowing when to not drive through something..

[TexasNick]

Originally Posted by rd2007

Seems to me that rain is a feast or famine thing here in SA.. Last year was an awful famine and so far this year has been an amazing feast. It sucks that my cars are spending more time dirty than clean, but it's nice to have not watered the lawn since last fall..

one of those glass breaking hammers is a good thing to have in the car and that reminds me (again) that I really need to buy a few of those.. even though I tend to be much smarter than the average bear when it comes to knowing when to not drive through something..

I always carry a small tool bag with the basic supplies needed for jumpstarting a car, instant flat tire fixer, etc. I've never had to use the bag yet, but I've used it on other people who were stranded in remote places.

[Robert123]

Did the flood end up happening? I'm not in SA at the moment. Hope you all stay safe.

[rd2007]

Luckily it looks like they were wrong, again...

the weather guessers here usually get the current conditions right, but can't forecast more than two minutes out.. then again I've been driving on Highway 90 through rain so hard I could barely see while the weather guy on the radio was talking about how sunny the day was going to be..

[sapphire]

OK, it's pouring over here on the NW side. And the Spurs are up 19-13! It's gonna be a great night!

[sapphire]

Well, the rain is gone, and so is our lead.

Oh well, I figured we'd drop one in Utah and then wrap it up here at home!

Spurs in 5!! Go Spurs Go!!

[TexasNick]

Originally Posted by sapphire

OK, it's pouring over here on the NW side. And the Spurs are up 19-13! It's gonna be a great night!

I was wondering why it was so quiet at HEB today....

Sorry not a basketball fan...just moved here, maybe it hasn't sunk in yet.