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Old 04-24-2008, 12:43 AM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX (78201)
604 posts, read 1,672,406 times
Reputation: 238

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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonySA View Post
Hot and fresh off the press:

The National Weather Service has issed a Special Weather Statement for our area:

WOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!: D
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Old 04-24-2008, 03:09 PM
 
Location: San Antonio North
4,147 posts, read 7,239,346 times
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Looks like they decided to lower our pops and lower the severe threat.
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Old 04-24-2008, 03:27 PM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
3,542 posts, read 7,541,124 times
Reputation: 3755
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryneone View Post
Looks like they decided to lower our pops and lower the severe threat.
Yeah they did, the 12Z runs lowered the rainfall amounts. We have deep enough moisture though that I still believe that we will get some good storms tomorrow evening.

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Old 04-24-2008, 11:02 PM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
3,542 posts, read 7,541,124 times
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I have looked at the models today, and I will have to disagree with the NWS on this one. The ingredients are in place for some strong storms and especially heavy rain. CAPE values will exceed 2000 J/kg and we'll deal with minimum CIN, and we'll have a moderate CAP burst later in the afternoon/evening. PWATs will hover around 1.5". The only thing working against us in terms of extreme severe weather is minimal shear... Helicity readings will hover at or below 100 and BRN's <45.

There's a dryline in place out in West Texas and a frontal boundary to our north -- there is no dispute that both will be the focus for the heaviest development of storms. With the Jet stream overhead, we should be able to get an MCS going in the afternoon/evening hours heading northwest to southeast. Out ahead of it, we could get a few storms pop up that will be capable of producing hail.

The main event should be capable of producing very heavy rains and flash flooding ought to be of greatest concern, strong winds, and hail possible. If the front stalls out, training of storms could occur, and as a result.. heavy rain will fall for extended periods of time over the same area. Since the soil is rock solid dry, runoff will be a problem. Therefore, if you're heading out... exercise extreme caution and TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.


I'll post more as soon as I get more time. Until the, happy Fiesta!
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Old 04-24-2008, 11:10 PM
 
3,468 posts, read 7,753,491 times
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Darling "adopted" son of mine! English please!!! What the he!! does this all mean???? Rain tomorrow night? Saturday night??? Insane weather????? Help!!!!! I'm so weatherologically challenged!!!!!!
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Old 04-24-2008, 11:16 PM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
3,542 posts, read 7,541,124 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jules07 View Post
Darling "adopted" son of mine! English please!!! What the he!! does this all mean???? Rain tomorrow night? Saturday night??? Insane weather????? Help!!!!! I'm so weatherologically challenged!!!!!!
Sorry I get wrapped up sometimes.. especially when we don't see weather that often!

ENGLISH TRANSLATION:

We have plenty of instability and moisture in place to generate heavy thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening. Some of the storms will produce very heavy rainfall over extended periods of time as they will stall out... the greatest chance of this happening will be just to the north of San Antonio. In addition to the heavy rain and pockets of flash flooding, strong winds and hail are also possible.

Another squall line will probably make it through the area tomorrow night.


And yet another strong storm system will move through Sunday/Monday!
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Old 04-24-2008, 11:26 PM
 
3,468 posts, read 7,753,491 times
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OK, so then, DD wants to know, is this all gonna spoil her NIOSA/Bonham plans tomorrow night???
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Old 04-24-2008, 11:30 PM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
3,542 posts, read 7,541,124 times
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You may want to reconsider NIOSA.. if you do go, just keep an eye out on the sky. These will be slow moving storms so you should see them coming (unless of course it forms right on top of SA).

The Bonham looks perfect, unless you go to tbe back patio (don't ask how I know). These aren't going to be disastrous storms.. just heavy rain makers.
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Old 04-24-2008, 11:35 PM
 
3,468 posts, read 7,753,491 times
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K, so if she's walking back to her hotel from the Bonham, she'll be ok then and not get too totally drenched in her fabulous getup?
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Old 04-24-2008, 11:46 PM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
3,542 posts, read 7,541,124 times
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LOL! Make her bring a phone with her and we'll alert her of the changing weather. If the storm stalls over us, then she'll have a hard time getting back to the hotel.
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