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Old 04-25-2008, 12:14 AM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
3,542 posts, read 7,541,124 times
Reputation: 3755

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From the Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook:

Quote:
STRONG HEATING WILL EXIST ACROSS CNTRL/E TX DURING THE DAY
WITH CURRENT MID-60S SFC DEW POINTS BEING MAINTAINED. VERY STEEP
MID-TROP LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS MOISTURE WILL CAP OFF SFC BASED
PARCELS UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THAT POINT...SRN
PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS TROUGH WILL GLANCE THE REGION AND LIKELY
SUPPORT TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NERN/NCNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
THEN BACKBUILD SWWD INTO PARTS OF SC TX DURING THE EVE HOURS.
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS NE TX...BUT GIVEN THE
STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND SUSTAINED FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE...STG-SVR TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING BRIEF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES INTO THE SABINE RVR VLY/UPR TX COAST
WITH SW SIDES OF ANY GROWING TSTM CLUSTERS REMAINING STG TO PERHAPS
SVR WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL.
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Old 04-25-2008, 07:18 AM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
3,542 posts, read 7,541,124 times
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The odds of us getting storms has just gone up. The morning models have increased our dynamics on all fronts. CAPE values have risen to about 2500 J/kg, no CIN, and a cap is in place... which will probably burst this afternoon with daytime heating. Helicity has also gone up, thus there's increasing shear... which probably means the models are trending a bit further south than yesterday.

If that's the case, don't be surpised to see a tornado or two spinup.

In summary, the biggest threats will be very heavy rain... locally 3-4"... large hail... strong winds... and isolated tornadoes.

Also... if tonight isn't enough... expect a repeat "encore" performance Sunday.
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Old 04-25-2008, 08:19 AM
 
Location: SoCal-So Proud!
4,263 posts, read 9,717,155 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonySA View Post
The odds of us getting storms has just gone up. The morning models have increased our dynamics on all fronts. CAPE values have risen to about 2500 J/kg, no CIN, and a cap is in place... which will probably burst this afternoon with daytime heating. Helicity has also gone up, thus there's increasing shear... which probably means the models are trending a bit further south than yesterday.

If that's the case, don't be surpised to see a tornado or two spinup.

In summary, the biggest threats will be very heavy rain... locally 3-4"... large hail... strong winds... and isolated tornadoes.

Also... if tonight isn't enough... expect a repeat "encore" performance Sunday.

Great... I'm flying in tonight,...and back out Sunday night.
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Old 04-25-2008, 09:24 AM
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Location: Ohio
16,825 posts, read 33,229,869 times
Reputation: 13612
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonySA View Post
The odds of us getting storms has just gone up. The morning models have increased our dynamics on all fronts. CAPE values have risen to about 2500 J/kg, no CIN, and a cap is in place... which will probably burst this afternoon with daytime heating. Helicity has also gone up, thus there's increasing shear... which probably means the models are trending a bit further south than yesterday.

If that's the case, don't be surpised to see a tornado or two spinup.
The Day 2 Convective Outlook has us right in the Slight Risk bullseye, while we're just part of a very large Slight Risk area for Day 1.

Surely we'll get some rain out of this.
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Old 04-25-2008, 09:43 AM
 
Location: Wiesbaden, Germany
13,807 posts, read 26,355,404 times
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I'm all about the rain. Dallas can have the rest of the stuff
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Old 04-25-2008, 10:27 AM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
3,542 posts, read 7,541,124 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bowie View Post
The Day 2 Convective Outlook has us right in the Slight Risk bullseye, while we're just part of a very large Slight Risk area for Day 1.

Surely we'll get some rain out of this.
2 different systems actually!

I guess I was on the right side of the bet a couple weeks ago when I said we would be trending wetter.
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Old 04-25-2008, 01:43 PM
 
Location: San Antonio North
4,147 posts, read 7,239,346 times
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The radar is looking to impressive.
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Old 04-25-2008, 02:20 PM
 
1,051 posts, read 2,296,718 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ryneone View Post
The radar is looking to impressive.
It could be a wild night, I will keep the weather channel on quite a bit tonight I think.
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Old 04-25-2008, 02:25 PM
 
Location: San Antonio North
4,147 posts, read 7,239,346 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by luckygreeniii View Post
It could be a wild night, I will keep the weather channel on quite a bit tonight I think.

Yea I spoke to soon the NWS just but a watch out for North of us and everything is coming south.
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Old 04-25-2008, 03:03 PM
 
5,635 posts, read 13,981,112 times
Reputation: 2731
Did someone say tornado-like atmosphere? That's not good when allt he neighbors have cut down their trees and piled the wood and debris in their front yards.
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