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Old 12-02-2009, 02:36 PM
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Location: Ohio
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HillCountryHotRodMan View Post
I cast my vote for rain turning to straight snow by 4 or 5 am on Friday. Where is Steve Browne when you need him?
The Steve Browne who urged people in this area to buy electric generators in advance of Hurricane Ike? If he was working this week, he'd probably be recommending we go online and order snow shovels or drive up north and buy them!
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Old 12-02-2009, 02:58 PM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bowie View Post
The Steve Browne who urged people in this area to buy electric generators in advance of Hurricane Ike? If he was working this week, he'd probably be recommending we go online and order snow shovels or drive up north and buy them!
That's a cheap shot. Every meteorologist in town and everyone who was forecasting the path of Ike (including myself) were obligated to warn people of the potential dangers in San Antonio should Ike have made a last minute westward jog towards Corpus Christi.

When forecasting any tropical cyclone, we're often predicting where the location of the center of circulation will be 5 days out. That range can vary from a few hundred to a couple thousand miles! In order for these storms to survive, they need not only warm water, but also calm winds aloft. In other words, the steering currents are weak so it does not comparatively take much force from the surrounding weather to influence the path of the storm. Therefore, the storm's forecast path is always susceptible to drastic changes the further out in time you are forecasting. Had the track been a hundred miles to the west, San Antonio would have indeed had very powerful winds in town much like the rest of East Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Indiana, and Ohio (where 80 MPH winds were reported).

With this system on the other hand, there is a definitive source of cold air moving southward from Canada in to Texas.. and it will certainly be a deeper layer of cold air since we already have a cold air mass in place. On top of that, several computer models are showing an upper level disturbance move southward from the Rockies into South Texas on Friday. Our position with respect to the low is IDEAL for wintry precipitation -- it is almost as perfect as something you would see in a textbook.

The question of if we'll see snow Friday is pretty much answered with a very high certainty (~70% per NWS) in San Antonio. Rather, you should be asking how much snow should we expect. That's what we're trying to figure out between now and Friday.
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Old 12-02-2009, 03:07 PM
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Location: Ohio
16,814 posts, read 33,121,638 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonySA View Post
That's a cheap shot. Every meteorologist in town and everyone who was forecasting the path of Ike (including myself) were obligated to warn people of the potential dangers in San Antonio should Ike have made a last minute westward jog towards Corpus Christi.
I watched multiple forecasts that week and Steve Browne's forecasts were by far the most dire of any TV met in town. His speech about that was not a suggestion and it was way beyond what the NWS was forecasting at the time... he was urging people to buy generators. He went way out on a limb and that limb broke.
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Old 12-02-2009, 03:09 PM
 
Location: San Antonio
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TXtrkgrl View Post
Except the conditions of my head on Sunday morning.
silly girl!
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Old 12-02-2009, 03:15 PM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bowie View Post
I watched multiple forecasts that week and Steve Browne's forecasts were by far the most dire of any TV met in town. His speech about that was not a suggestion and it was way beyond what the NWS was forecasting at the time... he was urging people to buy generators. He went way out on a limb and that limb broke.
It was indeed a very public and very nasty forecast bust. However, if his track was right then the conditions he was forecasting in San Antonio would have been accurate. If you recall the state of Texas had forced mandatory evacuations of Corpus Christi and South Texas before deciding to evacuate Houston/Galveston. As I said, the accuracy of the forecast path drops dramatically the further away you are from the storm. He probably went way overboard by saying to buy generators repetitively on TV, but the message to prepare for the storm should have been sent out to everyone.

The forecast was far from out of the forecast at that time. Historically, there have been several simulations with different hurricane tracks and paths and each of them show possible scenarios for which we would endure hurricane conditions in the San Antonio area. That said, the only time we had near hurricane force winds was in the 40s with a storm. But, our saving grace has been the storm's paths. That does not mean we're immune though.
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Old 12-02-2009, 03:22 PM
 
Location: San Antonio, TX
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rd2007 View Post
I would like that snow to happen at or after 4:30 PM please
Quote:
Light flurries may begin during the morning commute on Friday and continue to accumulate through Friday evening. Temperatures are expected to peak at 37 degrees by 7 a.m. Friday, drop to the low 30s by Friday evening and hit freezing or below by midnight. (Full story)
By the way, you will have to go in or take leave. During the bad ice storm of January 2007, Nordo and I went in both days despite it being "essential personnel only." We don't get "snow days" where we work...

But this sucks for the gun show Saturday morning!
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Old 12-02-2009, 04:10 PM
 
Location: Wiesbaden, Germany
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I dont' know what will happen with us. If we get snowed out they'll just shift everything to another site. We've done some work from home before and I wouldn't mind burning some leave. I'm back in the land of 8.33 hours/pay period
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Old 12-02-2009, 04:25 PM
 
Location: TX
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Yeah, all that panic buying before Ike was silly. I've pretty much lived in S.A. or extended area since I was 9 years old. As far as I can remember, the worst hurricanes have done is cause some flooding here. And if the power went off because of that, it was never for THAT long. The only 2 major outages we've had that lasted for days wasn't from hurricanes. We didn't run out and buy a generator or stock up on food before Ike hit East Texas. Now, the ice storm of January, 2007, however...we were at blackout or brownout status for 4 to 5 days...the furnace unusable without electricity (small fireplace and propane range helped a little bit) and no possibilty of driving out of our fairly rural subdivision (thick ice and steep hilly roads don't make for a good mix for vehicles, as many found out after they tried to get out and ended up sliding off into a creekbed or something), no water for one day. We could have used a generator at that time. It was absolutely the scariest storm I've ever been through in my lifetime. So the last thing I want is ice!
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Old 12-02-2009, 05:06 PM
 
Location: Universal City, Texas
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Well, I've cancelled the trip to Houston and Galveston this weekend. They are expecting snow as well and I don't want to be out in the cold weather all day. I may go to a teaparty in Seguin on Saturday, weather permitting. Girl friend is sick and I've had a touch of the cold. I'll just take picks around the house after the snow. I bet we get three snowfalls this season.
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Old 12-02-2009, 06:43 PM
 
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I am telling you up front this is could be a dumb question, but here goes...this is the first winter that I have lived in the Bandera hill country. My husband is away on a hunting trip, and he is normally my weather gauge. How do I know if I can drive to work on Friday morning? I know all the weather stations will say it's icy, but coming in from the hill country I will probably be facing sightly icier roads than in town. I really don't want to miss work unless I absolutely have to, so how do I know for sure? I drive a Jetta, which is no help on icy days.
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