Hesperia, Adelanto and Victorville, YOUR THOUGHTS? (Commerce: sales, home sales, neighborhood)

[LouisvilleJake]

Originally Posted by sheri257

The same problem applies to the Louisville "metro" stats. It includes, for example, Clark County... which is not anywhere near Louisville or even Jefferson county ... Winchester, which is the county seat, is 95 miles away from Louisville.

Geographically, you have to drive through four different counties just to get to Clark County from Louisville.

P.S. If you want to say that the "new" Louisville has a crime rate of 575 ... ok. That is better than Victorville at 608 but it's not better than Adelanto (553) or Apple Valley (306) or Hesperia (375).

When you combine all four cities for Victor Valley as a whole ... the crime rate is 453 ... still far below the "new" Lousville's 575.

Of the four towns that make up Victor Valley ... Victorville is only 35 percent of the total population. This thread is asking about the surrounding towns as well, not just Victorville.

Sheri -

Pull out'cha map.

Clark County, INDIANA is the Clark County that is a part of the Louisville MSA. Clark County, Kentucky is a part of the Lexington-Fayette MSA. (Just so you know, the county seat of Clark County, Indiana is Jeffersonville. Downtown Jeffersonville sits on the Ohio River directly facing downtown Louisville)

It is truly sad that Victorville, a city with a size 1/8th that of Louisville has a higher crime rate. Adelanto, a city of barely even 20,000 people has a crime rate not much lower than a city of 700,000 people.

But even the "Greater" Victor Valley area (The "central city" of Victorville and suburbs of Hesperia, Apple Valley and Adelanto with a population of ~270,000) has a higher crime rate at 453 per 100,000 than the Greater Louisville area (The central city of Louisville and it's suburbs with a population of ~1.2 million) at 404 crimes per 100,000.

Sheri, I was raised in Apple Valley, it isn't as if I just wanted to pick on some random city in California. The Victor Valley is growing fast, gaining lots of new Payless Shoe store's, Verizon Wireless store's, and Chinese Buffets! It is a glamerous area if I ever did see one. Despite all the new glitz, it still doesn't seem terribly safe, especially in comparison to places I lived after moving away from there. Is the Victor Valley safer than some places? Sure. But in my experience and research, it is not safer than the Louisville area.

[LouisvilleJake]

Guerilla-

The reason Sheri's stats seem skewed is becasue they are. She is using two different statistics unfairly.

She got her information from a US Census Bureau Publication called Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004

She wants you to believe that Texas has a net in-migration of ~36,000 while the Inland Empire of California has a net in-migration of ~80,000.

Both of those facts are actually true. But the way she shows them is misleading.

When you compare the State of California to the State of Texas in total net migration this is what you get:

Texas has a net in-migration of 36,000
California has a net OUT-migration of 100,000

California actually has the second worst domestic out-migration in America; trailing only New York State. Texas has America's sixth best in-migration.

If California is bleeding so many people per year to other states, how can the Inland Empire be gaining so many? Easily.

Riverside and San Bernardino Counties are ranked 1st and 5th nationally for domestic in-migration and are gaining about 80,000 people per year: but that in-migration isn't coming from other states like she wants you to think, it is coming mostly from Los Angeles County, which is the single worst county in America in terms of domestic OUT-migration. (But is also gaining tons of new people from international migration and birth, hence why the population continues to increase)

In essence, all that is happening is people form Los Angeles continue to move farther inland (hence the boom in the High Desert) or they leave Caifornia completely. They are then replaced in Los Angeles by an immigrant or a new birth.

Census estimates put California and Texas both gaining over 12 million people by 2030. That means the rate of growth in Texas is quite a bit higher than in California, since Texas currently has quite a bit fewer people.

[sheri257]

Originally Posted by LouisvilleJake

Texas has a net in-migration of 36,000
California has a net OUT-migration of 100,000

True but, it used to be worse in the 90's when 220,000 people a year were leaving ... which is pretty interesting since housing prices were a lot more affordable in the '90s than in recent years. You'd actually think the out migration would be up to 300,000 with California's outrageous coastal housing prices. But, instead, the out migration has gone down by more than half.

NY Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/20/us...=1&oref=slogin

In California, on average, 221,000 more people moved out every year than moved in from other states in the 1990's. From 2000 to 2004, the annual average net loss declined to 99,000 as more Californians moved inland from cities on the coast instead of moving to other states.

San Bernardino county has gained more migrants annually since 2000 than any other metropolitan area.

"It's the next frontier," said Marc J. Perry, who wrote the Census Bureau analysis.

Getting back to my original point ... if this area is so crime ridden and horrible ... why are doctors spending millions building not just one but, three new hospitals here?

Are these doctors incredibly dumb? Or, are they looking at the above mentioned demographics and figuring there's a lot of money to be made here.

I'm not saying the high desert is utopia by any means. Obviously it's not, far from it. And no ... the retail hasn't gotten ritzy like what you find over in Rancho Cucamonga but, it is getting better. When we first moved to Hesperia, we didn't even have a Starbucks ... now we have two and, for that ... I am eternally grateful (I appreciate the small things in life ... LOL).

We bought a house out here because we wanted a cheap mortgage and an area with a lot of growth potential. Because quite frankly ... you don't make a lot of money by moving to ritzy areas that are already too expensive. The best financial opportunities are actually cheaper areas that are on the upswing.

So far ... we haven't been disappointed. Financially ... it's been a great move for us.

[sheri257]

Originally Posted by Guerilla

Texas is still growing faster.

Ok ... for the sake of argument ... let's assume that's true. But here's my problem with Texas: I'm not convinced that growth benefits Texas residents as much as California residents and, here's why.

Yeah ... Texas is cheap but, the inflation rate has been pretty much the same as the rest of the country at about 3 percent annually. But, according to Texas A&M ... incomes are incredibly stagnant in Texas ... increasing by only 1 percent a year during the last five years.

What's Happening With Home Appreciation? - Tierra Grande (April 2006) (broken link)

So .. cheap doesn't help very much ... you're actually losing money. Granted, stagnant incomes are a problem for many states nationwide but for me personally ... there's HUGE difference between what I could make in Texas versus California.

I'm a registered nurse and, I'm making $43 an hour in the Inland Empire. My mortgage payment is $1200 including taxes and insurance which is pretty comparable to Texas mortgages. (Hence the reason I'm so bullish on the Inland Empire).

But ... how much money would I be making in Texas? $23 an hour, tops ... even in major cities like Dallas and Houston. Even though my cost of living in the Inland Empire for other items (like gas, utilities, taxes etc.) is about 15-20 percent higher than Texas ... my income is 45 percent higher.

Granted ... if I had chosen to go into residential real estate four years ago instead of nursing (which, thankfully, I didn't after getting burned in the '92 crash) ... I'd be in a completely different situation right now but ...

What I can't figure out is how does Texas end up paying their nurses so little when this is a skilled work force profession which requires four years of education and where nurses nationwide are in huge demand?

Then you look at the one percent income growth figure across the board and it really makes your wonder what's going on in Texas. Is cheap really that beneficial when the incomes are so low, even for higher paying healthcare professions?

You don't want the cost of living to get to high but, at the same time, you don't want the cost of living to get too low either because then you can end up with really stagnant incomes.

[Guerilla]

Houston is home to the world's largest medical center. Nurses can make some good money there. I think a reason why you would make more in the Inland Empire is because they need nurses. They are probably in a shortage or something over there.

Oh, and the part about "let's assume Texas is growing faster". No maam, Texas is growing faster .

Fast-growing states: Arizona overtakes Nevada - Dec. 22, 2006

[sheri257]

Originally Posted by LouisvilleJake

Sheri -

Pull out'cha map.

Clark County, INDIANA is the Clark County that is a part of the Louisville MSA. Clark County, Kentucky is a part of the Lexington-Fayette MSA. (Just so you know, the county seat of Clark County, Indiana is Jeffersonville. Downtown Jeffersonville sits on the Ohio River directly facing downtown Louisville)

It is truly sad that Victorville, a city with a size 1/8th that of Louisville has a higher crime rate. Adelanto, a city of barely even 20,000 people has a crime rate not much lower than a city of 700,000 people.

But even the "Greater" Victor Valley area (The "central city" of Victorville and suburbs of Hesperia, Apple Valley and Adelanto with a population of ~270,000) has a higher crime rate at 453 per 100,000 than the Greater Louisville area (The central city of Louisville and it's suburbs with a population of ~1.2 million) at 404 crimes per 100,000.

Ok ... my mistake. I didn't realize that we were counting stats in a neighboring state but ...

My overall point still stands. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong (which I'm sure you will ... LOL) but ...

Doesn't your FBI link also include Nelson County?

Table 6 - Crime in the United States 2006

Assuming this map is correct ... there's two counties between Jefferson County (Louisville) and Nelson County ... Bullitt and Spencer.

Kentucky QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau

Most of Nelson County is a good hour or more away from Louisville ... and a good portion of Nelson County extends farther south so ... why are Nelson's crime stats thrown in here when they are, more than likely, geographically irrelevant to Louisville?

To me at least, it would be the same thing as throwing in Barstow with Victor Valley but ... Barstow is a good 50 miles away ... and there's nothing but empty desert between the two areas so ...

You've got to have a reasonable cut off point because, the farther out you go, the less relevant these stats become.

If we can agree on a reasonable cut off point ... like maybe 30 miles ... then perhaps we can make more meaningful comparisons.

[sheri257]

Originally Posted by Guerilla

Houston is home to the world's largest medical center. Nurses can make some good money there. I think a reason why you would make more in the Inland Empire is because they need nurses. They are probably in a shortage or something over there.

Oh, and the part about "let's assume Texas is growing faster". No maam, Texas is growing faster .

Fast-growing states: Arizona overtakes Nevada - Dec. 22, 2006

At a certain point ... it doesn't matter how fast the area is growing if the wages suck.

Because then you end up with a situation like Florida and Arizona where ... the area is growing because retirees are moving there from other states ... driving up the cost of living .... but the nursing wages are still pathetic.

Good money in Houston? Uh ... you should talk to some Houston nurses. Unless you're working a ton of overtime ... (which I prefer not to do) .... the higher incomes just aren't there.

There's actually some attempts going on right now both in Texas and Arizona to unionize nurses because the wages are so pathetic in those states.

[Guerilla]

Houston nurse wages: http://swz.salary.com/salarywizard/l...&zipcode=77019

You also have to remember that a lot of things are cheaper in Houston than the Inland Empire. Homes, cars, even food is a lot cheaper in Houston.

[sheri257]

Originally Posted by Guerilla

Houston nurse wages: http://swz.salary.com/salarywizard/l...&zipcode=77019

You also have to remember that a lot of things are cheaper in Houston than the Inland Empire. Homes, cars, even food is a lot cheaper in Houston.

Yeah ... that's the Texas mantra ... everything's cheaper. But the reason everything is cheaper is because Texas incomes are only growing by one percent a year ... which is nothing to brag about.

I only paid $150K for my high desert house so ... my mortgage payment is pretty much the same as Texas ... $1200 a month, including taxes and insurance.

Other stuff costs more but, when you run those cost of living calculators the difference is about 15-20 percent. But how much more am I making than Texas nurses? 40-45 percent.

For for me, and probably most California nurses who didn't pay a fortune for a house on the coast ... Texas is a losing proposition.

But, of course, it could be a completely different situation for other professions.

[Guerilla]

No, the reason everything is cheaper is not because of Texas' income is growing by one percent each year. You need to check this: State Personal Income: First Quarter 2007

Also, look at this graphic:



Hmm...looks like Texas' income is growing faster than California's.