Will IE Home Prices EVER come back??? (Temecula: for sale, real estate)

[walter_hedingly]

Have read many websites that have said prices before it's over will be back at 1999 levels. Does anyone think housing in IE will recover in terms of pricing. One article I read said by their estimates, IE will be back around 2020

[EscapeCalifornia]

Prices always rise eventually as incomes rise. Well, almost always. There are some places like Detroit that may never recover. With lending guidelines returning to some sanity (ie. lending money to people who can show they can actually afford the payment) prices will only be able to rise as much as people's ability to pay the mortgage. 2020 sounds like a long time to get back to 2005 prices, but who knows. Things got so inflated, that might be what it takes. More desirable areas (like coastal LA/OC) tend to be the last to decline and the first to recover. Less desirable areas tend to be the other way around. No offense to anyone in the IE, but I think a lot of people live there only because they got chased out of LA/OC by the crazy prices. Given the chance to move back toward the coast, a lot probably would. That'll make it harder for IE home prices to recover. The good news is that its just about the only part of SoCal left for growth. So if you can snag a house near the bottom of this cycle, you'll be in a good position for appreciation as the IE grows and your house becomes less "way out there" and more in the middle of things.

[sheri257]

During the real estate bust of '92, it took five years for the market to bottom out and three years to come back to previous price levels.

This bust however, seems worse so ... I would give it ten years.

[sheri257]

Originally Posted by EscapeCalifornia

No offense to anyone in the IE, but I think a lot of people live there only because they got chased out of LA/OC by the crazy prices. Given the chance to move back toward the coast, a lot probably would.

True but ... I've looked at what I'd have to pay even if coastal prices were cut in half ... which, even though the market is crashing, probably isn't gonna happen.

I'd still have to pay a hellava lot more than what I'm paying for my IE house now and ....

Ironically, I'd also have to take a pay cut to move back to OC so ... I'm not going anywhere.

[EscapeCalifornia]

Originally Posted by sheri257

True but ... I've looked at what I'd have to pay even if coastal prices were cut in half ... which, even though the market is crashing, probably isn't gonna happen.

I'd still have to pay a hellava lot more than what I'm paying for my IE house now and ....

Ironically, I'd also have to take a pay cut to move back to OC so ... I'm not going anywhere.

And unless I'm confusing you with another poster, you like the desert. Not my cup of tea though. You're right about coastal prices being cut in half and it still being expensive. We're 4 miles from the water so its not beachfront, but its not inland either. Our 2 bedroom starter home is worth about $600k today. Insane. Even at 1/2 the price, its still just a starter home we can't grow in.

[SoCalTwinkie]

People will always need housing. I'm sure it will take 5-6 years to get rid of all the foreclosures and glut we have now on the market, as well as the anticipated ones coming online. Buyers will buy if lenders give them the funds....so once that starts again, we should be on our way to a recovery.

We all saw this coming, just like the rise in the stock market during the HI TECH crazies. Eventually, what goes up, must come down.

I hope the lenders choke on all those no money down, no need to qualify, variable interest rate loans they gave to just about everyone who was breathing regardless of what could happen. It was just plain greed. People were foolish enough to think that home prices could only go up.

[evolutionrules]

So when will the market bottom out? We're looking in Temecula and there are over 1000 homes for sale. When should we buy?

[EscapeCalifornia]

Originally Posted by evolutionrules

So when will the market bottom out? We're looking in Temecula and there are over 1000 homes for sale. When should we buy?

Nobody knows for sure. I'd pick a few neighborhood to concentrate on and watch the prices and activity closely. When things start to turn around, you'll know it. Buy on the upswing, not when prices are on a "where it stops, nobody knows" downward slide.

[sirbeigealot]

I think the market will start making a comeback in summer 09.

[Ulysses61]

I think it's ridiculous to believe the housing market won't rebound until 2020. Market analysts believe the market will rebound in 2010 and then slowly work its way up again. These things always work in cycles. It's a buyers market now but it will be a sellers market again, probably by 2011-2012. Then there will be an inevitable downturn and the whole thing cycles around again.