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Old 05-21-2011, 12:16 PM
Location: Santaluz - San Diego, CA
4,484 posts, read 7,871,587 times
Reputation: 1960


I totally agree with Pharmboy and think the market should continue it's descent throughout 2011. I do think San Diego is more insulated than lots of areas around the country but I still think much pure economic logic forces are in play. Mainly the unemployment rate is horrible, still a ton of foreclosures coming, tons of negative or near negative equity, government phasing out of supporting the market and loans should be tougher to get in the near future, Jumbo mortgage limits decreasing starting in October.

Like Pharmboy, I've watched the market the past 2 years. Although, admittedly I'm not looking at short sales for our primary residence to live in but may take a look at investment opportunities via short sales once we move to the area.

I'm not sure how much prices will fall in 2011 in San Diego. However, there is nothing I see really positive about the economy or real estate market to make me think prices will go up in 2011.
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Old 05-21-2011, 01:46 PM
Location: Edina, MN
333 posts, read 594,638 times
Reputation: 191
The idea that real estate values will rise anytime soon is ludicrous, and SD county could easily see another 20%+ drop over the next two years, particularly in those communities that have been considered to be insulated from the bubble burst in recent years (la jolla, del mar, etc.). That sort of blind optimism was what got real estate markets into such trouble in the first place. With the amount of shadow inventory floating around and the inevitable rise in interest rates by 2012, prices will continue to plummet. There are no "good deals" right now unless you have lots of cash on hand. Even then, I'd be hesitant to buy a primary residence in nicer parts of SD county in favor of purchasing less expensive rental properties.

We have plenty of cash on hand to buy but the long term plan for our move is to stay nimble and stay liquid, and to rent for the first couplethree years. Nothing wrong with sitting on your hands and letting current homeowners take the loss, because we haven't hit bottom yet, or anything close to it. A 10% drop in some of these areas means six figure losses. The perceived risk of getting left behind because prices will start climbing again is pretty absurd right now.

Last edited by DirtMagurt; 05-21-2011 at 02:05 PM..
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Old 05-22-2011, 12:03 AM
Location: San Diego
356 posts, read 505,042 times
Reputation: 329
As long as the compensation for most of the new jobs created locally falls short of middle class, prices are going to be more or less sideways at best.
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Old 05-22-2011, 07:07 PM
Location: Santaluz - San Diego, CA
4,484 posts, read 7,871,587 times
Reputation: 1960
A great website you might want to follow is Housing Market News I've been reading it for years. Some good stuff on it. Although I do think some on there are "permabears".

I do think prices are still headed down but at the same time in any investment it's impossible to catch the absolute highs and the absolute lows.
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Old 05-23-2011, 07:23 PM
Location: Brawndo-Thirst-Mutilator-Nation
15,145 posts, read 15,198,298 times
Reputation: 10872
Originally Posted by Mugsy View Post
For the area you are looking at try this Realtor Blog:

bubbleinfo.com | An insider's guide to North San Diego County Real Estate | Klinge Realty Blog by Jim Klinge

I live in Southbay. We bought a bit high but in this area, prices are kind of stable but low.

I also track Mission Valley.

All I can comment on is that condos can lose much more value than houses.

If you are buying, try to get into a SFR versus a condo. But it does depend on the area and HOA too.
This is a great point, in my opinion Condos are way, way overbuilt in most of San Diego County, I would not buy one unless it was an extremely great deal.

Right before the start of the housing bubble explosion I say new condos priced at close to 400k out in El Cajon. Fast forward to today and the same condo is listed in the 160-180K range. Be careful not to catch a falling knife. SFR is a lot less risky (if you get a good deal) in my opinion.
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