Economic Impact from Fires (San Diego, Imperial: insurance, debt, rental)

[justsomeguy]

Not to sound crass, it's a little early, but do you think these fires will hurt the San Diego economy, or benefit it?

Of course, damages are estimated in the billions and there is a lot of discussion of "economic fallout."

But there is going to be a surge of Federal Dollars, Insurance money, and probably donation money that will be funneled into San Diego County. That money will be spent, which should cause an increase in business activity and likewise in employment, particularly in the struggling construction sector. San Diego's unemployment rate has been steadily creeping up, and was higher than the national average for the first time in a decade last month.

So my initial thoughts are that this will cause an economic rebound in what had been a 'soft' economy this year. But I am not really sure...b/c you also have the issue of so displaced people...who could maybe even move from SD County.

Thoughts? Comments? Feedback?

[niy38]

I just don't understand this logic: a natural disaster will help economic. It was said so
when Katrina wiped out New Orleans, so if SD was burned down, it would be more helpful
for SD, right ?

[Sassberto]

Originally Posted by niy38

I just don't understand this logic: a natural disaster will help economic. It was said so
when Katrina wiped out New Orleans, so if SD was burned down, it would be more helpful
for SD, right ?

Look at NYC post 9/11. City has been booming since. New Orleans is a poor city in a poor state with a corrupt govt. SD is a rich city in a rich state with good govt. Lots of money is going to get pumped into town, and that means money for construction, builders, fire agencies, first responders.

The rich always get richer, even in a distaster.

[Calibound-Yorkiemom]

Originally Posted by Sassberto

Look at NYC post 9/11. City has been booming since. New Orleans is a poor city in a poor state with a corrupt govt. SD is a rich city in a rich state with good govt. Lots of money is going to get pumped into town, and that means money for construction, builders, fire agencies, first responders.

The rich always get richer, even in a distaster.

The thing about NYC is that there have ALAWYS been more demand for housing than there is supply of housing. That is a reason the prices for apt. rentals & apt sales stay high. The same doesn't seem to hold true for San Diego.Ny also has better paying jobs & a lot more of them. I too am skeptical if this will turn into finacial boom for San Diego.

[Sassberto]

Originally Posted by Calibound-Yorkiemom

The thing about NYC is that there have ALAWYS been more demand for housing than there is supply of housing. That is a reason the prices for apt. rentals & apt sales stay high. The same doesn't seem to hold true for San Diego.Ny also has better paying jobs & a lot more of them. I too am skeptical if this will turn into finacial boom for San Diego.

I agree with that, I do not think there will be a financial boom either. However there will be money flowing in that wasn't there before, and it will be spent locally, so on some level there will probably be a net positive given the expenses of the disaster itself.

[Calibound-Yorkiemom]

Originally Posted by Sassberto

I agree with that, I do not think there will be a financial boom either. However there will be money flowing in that wasn't there before, and it will be spent locally, so on some level there will probably be a net positive given the expenses of the disaster itself.

I hope you are right. I believe it is quite possible. I also that whatever the future holds San Diego has shown that this disaster will not be another Katrina situation & thank God for that!

[Stewie]

I've heard two views so far in my part of town....Rancho Bernardo/CMR. The construction business will go up with all of the rebuilding. On the other hand the guy who owns the Pinery Christmas tree farms has had a total loss and this is his busiest time of year with pumpkins and Christmas trees. His entire stock of live trees were burn to the ground, now that's sad.

It will be interesting to watch but I think it will be pretty much business as usual some will be up others might just disappear.

[floridasandy]

there will at least be a short term boom with the rebuilding and associated spending. we had that here in florida after the hurricanes. there was a lot of money made short term. i am sorry to hear about the christmas tree guy and my sympathy goes out to him. this must be a very stressful time for him particularly. wishing everybody well in california!

[Imperial1904]

Originally Posted by Sassberto

Look at NYC post 9/11. City has been booming since. New Orleans is a poor city in a poor state with a corrupt govt. SD is a rich city in a rich state with good govt. Lots of money is going to get pumped into town, and that means money for construction, builders, fire agencies, first responders.

The rich always get richer, even in a distaster.

Yes, New Orleans is a poor city, but San Diego is not exactly a "rich" city (even though there are multi-millionaires) and doesn't have a good government. Look at San Diego's debt and the corruption by city officials, not to mention Dick Murphy being named one of the three worst mayors in the country.

Tourism is essential for San Diego's economy.

[shannon94]

Exactly Imperial1904!!!