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Old 09-24-2015, 02:36 PM
 
Location: Laguna Niguel, Orange County CA
9,810 posts, read 11,055,559 times
Reputation: 7995

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Axxlrod View Post
Interesting thread.

If schools and safety are truly your primary concern, then why are you looking for the cheapest places to live? The cheapest areas will, for the most part, have substandard schools and crime. This is real estate 101. Areas with good schools and low crime are expensive.

Since you keep saying how successful you are, and how your son's education/safety is primary, why don't you put your money where your mouth is and buy in a safe area with good schools. And guess what! It's gonna cost you at least double what all those $400K dumps would cost.


My advice for you is to rent for a year in Carlsbad or Encinitas, and try to get your gf to get a job at either Scripps hospital in Encinitas or the new Palomar Hospital in Escondido, although Vista/San Marcos/San Elijo Hills might be a better living location for that commute.
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Old 09-24-2015, 04:45 PM
 
Location: San Diego
5,567 posts, read 4,526,582 times
Reputation: 12465
Quote:
Originally Posted by tycoon85 View Post
I didn't meant to come across as cocky, someone asked me my budget. My issue is if you buy a home at say $800k + there isn't a lot of room for that investment to go up in my opinion. The window of people being able to afford that homes seems slim and imagine if the real estate market crashes. You just lost a ton of money. Conversely, if you can get a nice home in a decent area at $400k to $500k range then that house is going to go up in value and a broad spectrum of people could buy that home if you ever decide to sell.

I don't believe the only safe place is an area with $800k + homes. That's my logic behind all this. I never said it would be easy to find a cheaper home in a nice area. That's why I am working on this problem now and not 5 minutes before the moving truck leaves.
To point #1... Of course there is room for values to go up. You think homes in coastal San Diego are just going to stop appreciating due to some glass ceiling? Look at the past 5 years... incredible appreciation. That $800K house will be $1.2M in a few years. Get in while you still can.

To point #2... I think we've established here that you can't get a nice home in an area with good schools and low crime for $400K. Hello? McFly, are you in there? Hello?
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:30 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles, CA (Ladera Heights)
496 posts, read 570,781 times
Reputation: 390
or send your kids to private school/catholic school. (what many people do when they are in a great neighborhood that for some reason does not have great schools)- this is a real issue in many areas of southern california.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:42 PM
 
2,382 posts, read 5,373,107 times
Reputation: 3466
Quote:
Originally Posted by tycoon85 View Post
Is Chula Vista a horrible area? I found the link below and it shows brand new bigger homes in the $400k range.

Baldwin and Sons New Home Sales - Corta Bella - Otay Ranch
I hate answering questions like this in that I' don't like to run down area where other people live. However, Chula Vista - basically if you look on the map you will see the 805 runs thru the middle of it. East side is Otay Ranch/Eastlake - nicer, newer, good schools, safer. West side is higher crime, older, some of the schools are rated very poorly.

Some areas of the west side are frankly horrible , I ran over there yesterday to get some things at Micheals for a party. I got hit up by two homeless people for spare change outside the store, there was a homeless(?) woman playing a sax outside the store for change, pulled thru the McD's there - they have a lot of signs limiting your visit to 30 mins or less, nearly hit a "high" person in the parking lot. Pulled across the street to go to Ross - they have several security/loss prevention people at the front and patrolling the store and outside the store security.

However - you are going to pay on the Eastside/Otay The houses you are looking at - I'm pretty sure that they will be close to 500K when its' all said and done (ad said "high" 400's) and you can't tell it from the pictures - but I'm very willing to bet that they will have the common alley drive we were talking about. The yard is pretty much nonexistent on these units - literally enough room for a small table and your grill

Here's an example of what you are looking at -

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Chula-Vist...3/home/6570615

If you do a search on google maps - you can see these houses are one on top of another, no driveway, shared drive to your garage. You either garage park or duke it out for the limited amount of street. You can't park in the alleys behind the home even if you park across your garage door because of fire codes. (Ugh, trust me on this - I tell this to all my tenants and they still end up getting towed all the time)

https://www.google.com/maps/place/15...85959f036a22ba

You can tell from the google earth view - they house are zero lot line, right on top of each other. Your windows will look right into your neighbors home and vice versa. And a new build is going with an addiotional $500-600 a month in HOA's and Mello Roos.

Like I said - $400 is not going to happen.....

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Chula-Vist...5/home/6502966

Higher than you want to spend - but this is actually what would be considered a "good sized yard" in Eastlake.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:44 PM
 
2,382 posts, read 5,373,107 times
Reputation: 3466
Quote:
Originally Posted by Axxlrod View Post
To point #1... Of course there is room for values to go up. You think homes in coastal San Diego are just going to stop appreciating due to some glass ceiling? Look at the past 5 years... incredible appreciation. That $800K house will be $1.2M in a few years. Get in while you still can.

To point #2... I think we've established here that you can't get a nice home in an area with good schools and low crime for $400K. Hello? McFly, are you in there? Hello?


No doubt - I know it's a bitter pill for the OP to swallow but 400K/good schools/low crime is not. going. to. happen.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:47 PM
 
Location: Temecula, CA
60 posts, read 80,528 times
Reputation: 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Axxlrod View Post
To point #1... Of course there is room for values to go up. You think homes in coastal San Diego are just going to stop appreciating due to some glass ceiling? Look at the past 5 years... incredible appreciation. That $800K house will be $1.2M in a few years. Get in while you still can.

To point #2... I think we've established here that you can't get a nice home in an area with good schools and low crime for $400K. Hello? McFly, are you in there? Hello?

I probably misspoke. I believe the market can always go higher, but the number of potential buyers dramatically shrinks. To me, a piece of real estate is only as liquid as the market dictates. For example, a $1 million home may sit on the market for a long time and suffer deep discounts. Whereas, a less expensive home has a much higher probability of being snatched up more rapidly due to a larger segment of the market being able to get a loan to buy it. Anytime I buy something for a lot of money, I look for an exit strategy. I plan on being there for a long time, but liquidity is the driving thought.

Lol nice back to the future reference. I still haven't determined your last statement to be true. The average price of homes in Chula Vista are under $400k. From what research I have done it doesn't look to be a gangland type area. A lot of residents think it is a very nice place to live. I am fully aware it isn't as nice as Carlsbad per se, but I may be willing to step down to a more moderate place of living if the housing costs are 1/2 of the Carlsbad/Encinitas area. When I come back in a few months I will have to check out Chula Vista and really drive it to see if it is worth the consideration. However, you could be dead on and it may be a reality I have to accept. I just want to make sure I check all the areas before I concede that point lol.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:48 PM
 
Location: Temecula, CA
60 posts, read 80,528 times
Reputation: 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by erin_elise_ View Post
or send your kids to private school/catholic school. (what many people do when they are in a great neighborhood that for some reason does not have great schools)- this is a real issue in many areas of southern california.
Not a bad suggestion. I will look into that option when we go back and visit some schools.
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Old 09-24-2015, 05:59 PM
 
Location: Temecula, CA
60 posts, read 80,528 times
Reputation: 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bakeneko View Post
I hate answering questions like this in that I' don't like to run down area where other people live. However, Chula Vista - basically if you look on the map you will see the 805 runs thru the middle of it. East side is Otay Ranch/Eastlake - nicer, newer, good schools, safer. West side is higher crime, older, some of the schools are rated very poorly.

Some areas of the west side are frankly horrible , I ran over there yesterday to get some things at Micheals for a party. I got hit up by two homeless people for spare change outside the store, there was a homeless(?) woman playing a sax outside the store for change, pulled thru the McD's there - they have a lot of signs limiting your visit to 30 mins or less, nearly hit a "high" person in the parking lot. Pulled across the street to go to Ross - they have several security/loss prevention people at the front and patrolling the store and outside the store security.

However - you are going to pay on the Eastside/Otay The houses you are looking at - I'm pretty sure that they will be close to 500K when its' all said and done (ad said "high" 400's) and you can't tell it from the pictures - but I'm very willing to bet that they will have the common alley drive we were talking about. The yard is pretty much nonexistent on these units - literally enough room for a small table and your grill

Here's an example of what you are looking at -

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Chula-Vist...3/home/6570615

If you do a search on google maps - you can see these houses are one on top of another, no driveway, shared drive to your garage. You either garage park or duke it out for the limited amount of street. You can't park in the alleys behind the home even if you park across your garage door because of fire codes. (Ugh, trust me on this - I tell this to all my tenants and they still end up getting towed all the time)

https://www.google.com/maps/place/15...85959f036a22ba

You can tell from the google earth view - they house are zero lot line, right on top of each other. Your windows will look right into your neighbors home and vice versa. And a new build is going with an addiotional $500-600 a month in HOA's and Mello Roos.

Like I said - $400 is not going to happen.....

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Chula-Vist...5/home/6502966

Higher than you want to spend - but this is actually what would be considered a "good sized yard" in Eastlake.
Would it be fair to say that there are good areas with nice homes in the $500k range? Those same comparable homes would go for another $300k or more in Encinitas or Carlsbad area?

Something like this:

3478 Corte Fortuna, Carlsbad, CA 92009 | Zillow
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Old 09-24-2015, 06:43 PM
 
2,382 posts, read 5,373,107 times
Reputation: 3466
Quote:
Originally Posted by tycoon85 View Post
I probably misspoke. I believe the market can always go higher, but the number of potential buyers dramatically shrinks. To me, a piece of real estate is only as liquid as the market dictates. For example, a $1 million home may sit on the market for a long time and suffer deep discounts. Whereas, a less expensive home has a much higher probability of being snatched up more rapidly due to a larger segment of the market being able to get a loan to buy it. Anytime I buy something for a lot of money, I look for an exit strategy. I plan on being there for a long time, but liquidity is the driving thought.

Lol nice back to the future reference. I still haven't determined your last statement to be true. The average price of homes in Chula Vista are under $400k. From what research I have done it doesn't look to be a gangland type area. A lot of residents think it is a very nice place to live. I am fully aware it isn't as nice as Carlsbad per se, but I may be willing to step down to a more moderate place of living if the housing costs are 1/2 of the Carlsbad/Encinitas area. When I come back in a few months I will have to check out Chula Vista and really drive it to see if it is worth the consideration. However, you could be dead on and it may be a reality I have to accept. I just want to make sure I check all the areas before I concede that point lol.
I don't know how much clearer folk can make it for you......

I can't speak to the rest of the county specifically but I own two places in Otay Ranch have been home shopping for a good while..... 400K (and under) is not going to happen on the East side of the 805 in Chula Vista. Trust I know this market. I've actually been to see some of the homes you are talking about .....

Yes, I understand what you are saying about demand at a certain price point. But that the price point you are talking about does not exist here in San Diego County.

This is a redfin search for 400k/2k houses in the entire county. San Diego is a HUGE county and most of them aren't anywhere near the coast, are short sales, have been on the market for greater than a year, or are in horrible areas......
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Old 09-24-2015, 09:33 PM
 
Location: SoCal
6,418 posts, read 11,545,402 times
Reputation: 7093
Quote:
Originally Posted by tycoon85 View Post
I probably misspoke. I believe the market can always go higher, but the number of potential buyers dramatically shrinks. To me, a piece of real estate is only as liquid as the market dictates. For example, a $1 million home may sit on the market for a long time and suffer deep discounts. Whereas, a less expensive home has a much higher probability of being snatched up more rapidly due to a larger segment of the market being able to get a loan to buy it. Anytime I buy something for a lot of money, I look for an exit strategy. I plan on being there for a long time, but liquidity is the driving thought.

Lol nice back to the future reference. I still haven't determined your last statement to be true. The average price of homes in Chula Vista are under $400k. From what research I have done it doesn't look to be a gangland type area. A lot of residents think it is a very nice place to live. I am fully aware it isn't as nice as Carlsbad per se, but I may be willing to step down to a more moderate place of living if the housing costs are 1/2 of the Carlsbad/Encinitas area. When I come back in a few months I will have to check out Chula Vista and really drive it to see if it is worth the consideration. However, you could be dead on and it may be a reality I have to accept. I just want to make sure I check all the areas before I concede that point lol.
I think I get your strategy (to own an asset that will increase in value, but not so far that is too 'high-priced' so that you can't easily sell it).

But if you buy a property in a less desirable area, unless gentrification happens to hit that area your property will continue to be difficult to sell for any increased value since it will continue to be located in a less desirable area. The absolute value might have increased, but the relative value won't have increased since everything else will have also increased around it.

I think your strategy would only work if you happen to chance upon the next area to be gentrified before that gentrification begins to happen. Highly unlikely.
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