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Old 05-27-2008, 09:26 PM
 
1,868 posts, read 3,770,936 times
Reputation: 501
Quote:
Originally Posted by sdurbanite View Post
You are right, things have changed in a year, and it will be interesting to see what we'll all have to say in a year from now.

I look forward to SD becoming more affordable to more people, but please don't discount the fact that the desirability of a place will always be a part of the pricing equation. There is a reason why places like SF, NYC, Boston and SD are much more expensive than any large city in Texas, and most cities in the South and Midwest.

Your enthusiasm about prices falling so quickly is no different from the people who got so excited about prices rising so fast back in 2000. It's just a bunch of hype.

I'll be the first one to say that the sky is falling down on SD when the price for a beachfront house in La Jolla is selling for $350,000.
Ha! A response that I usually expect!! I love it when things get twisted. Never have I said that the San Diego market should be like the Dallas market etc. But prices are falling pretty quickly and I love it that the cheerleaders can't deny it anymore. There is nothing in it for me if prices fall....I'm not moving back regardless.....and it would be alot nicer if my parents and my inlaws' properties held on to yesterdays values because they will be mine someday....
Pleeease let's not compare beachfront property in La jolla to the rest of San Diego either....c'mon....
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Old 05-27-2008, 11:54 PM
 
Location: Sandy Eggo - Kensington
3,532 posts, read 6,385,085 times
Reputation: 1527
Quote:
Originally Posted by shannon94 View Post
Ha! A response that I usually expect!! I love it when things get twisted. Never have I said that the San Diego market should be like the Dallas market etc. But prices are falling pretty quickly and I love it that the cheerleaders can't deny it anymore. There is nothing in it for me if prices fall....I'm not moving back regardless.....and it would be alot nicer if my parents and my inlaws' properties held on to yesterdays values because they will be mine someday....
Pleeease let's not compare beachfront property in La jolla to the rest of San Diego either....c'mon....
Who ever said that housing prices would never fall? Anyone who follows real estate knows that it's cyclical, and that what goes up must come down. So-called experts have been talking about a housing bust since 2006, and here we are in mid-2008, still talking about it.

Don't you recall SD going through a similar downturn (foreclosures, people moving out of SD, etc) back in the early 80's and early 90's? My point is that what is happening now (along with the rest of the country) is nothing we haven't experienced before!

I predict this thread will disappear in less than a year, go into hibernation for a few years and reappear again in 2016
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Old 05-28-2008, 12:12 AM
 
349 posts, read 1,021,467 times
Reputation: 93
Quote:
Originally Posted by sdurbanite View Post
Who ever said that housing prices would never fall? Anyone who follows real estate knows that it's cyclical, and that what goes up must come down. So-called experts have been talking about a housing bust since 2006, and here we are in mid-2008, still talking about it.

Don't you recall SD going through a similar downturn (foreclosures, people moving out of SD, etc) back in the early 80's and early 90's? My point is that what is happening now (along with the rest of the country) is nothing we haven't experienced before!

I predict this thread will disappear in less than a year, go into hibernation for a few years and reappear again in 2016
Exactly! It is cyclical. I saw my property lose about 20% in 1994-1996 then almost triple in value a couple years ago. Although it would have been great to sell at peak and buy a nicer home now, I'm not worried about it. It will turn around again. It's happened before, and to my parents before me. Unless you have to sell now, it's no big deal. For those looking to buy, this is a great time. Prices may fall a bit more but we are close to the bottom.
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Old 05-28-2008, 08:27 AM
 
1,868 posts, read 3,770,936 times
Reputation: 501
It's cyclical..... but the circle is now wider due to globalization. We've never seen THIS before .....as I've said before ...it's a different ballgame now. I can't believe people don't see the differences between what happened in the 80' and 90's and now!
.
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Old 05-28-2008, 10:40 AM
 
349 posts, read 1,021,467 times
Reputation: 93
Yes, it's more extreme this time but it's still the same. There is only so much inventory in San Diego, infact some areas are not affected at all. There is only so much land in San Diego between the ocean and the mountains. The foreclosures will be bought up and the prices will go back up.
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Old 05-28-2008, 11:25 AM
 
Location: Sandy Eggo - Kensington
3,532 posts, read 6,385,085 times
Reputation: 1527
Quote:
Originally Posted by shannon94 View Post
It's cyclical..... but the circle is now wider due to globalization. We've never seen THIS before .....as I've said before ...it's a different ballgame now. I can't believe people don't see the differences between what happened in the 80' and 90's and now!
.
What haven't we seen before? kcda said it best - "Yes, it's more extreme this time but it's still the same".

People are lose their homes, jobs leave, people moved away.....what else is there? Yes, we're dealing with a higher number of foreclosures, but we also have more people living here. Add to that, the greedy banks who handed out loans to anyone and the number of sleazy real estate agents who brainwashed people into thinking they could afford a home that was above their means. Of course home prices are much higher now, and that's because of inflation.

I know people who are already kicking the tires in their search for buying a home. The word is out that SD is becoming affordable again, and once they start talking about raising interest rates, things will begin to pick up. When will that happen? No one knows.

10 -20 years ago, SD was much more of a one-horse town, in that it's main industry was government/defense. Fast forward to 2008 and now we are a biotech/telecommunication/medical/tourist hotbed.

Again, nothing is different from the previous decades....
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Old 05-28-2008, 11:26 AM
 
Location: La Mesa
301 posts, read 349,123 times
Reputation: 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by sdurbanite View Post
So-called experts have been talking about a housing bust since 2006, and here we are in mid-2008, still talking about it.

Overall prices in San Diego county have dropped about 20% in the last year. Seems like a lot to me for one year.
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Old 05-28-2008, 11:50 AM
 
Location: La Mesa
301 posts, read 349,123 times
Reputation: 125
Quote:
Originally Posted by sdurbanite View Post
What haven't we seen before? kcda said it best - "Yes, it's more extreme this time but it's still the same".

People are lose their homes, jobs leave, people moved away.....what else is there? Yes, we're dealing with a higher number of foreclosures, but we also have more people living here. Add to that, the greedy banks who handed out loans to anyone and the number of sleazy real estate agents who brainwashed people into thinking they could afford a home that was above their means. Of course home prices are much higher now, and that's because of inflation.

I know people who are already kicking the tires in their search for buying a home. The word is out that SD is becoming affordable again, and once they start talking about raising interest rates, things will begin to pick up. When will that happen? No one knows.

10 -20 years ago, SD was much more of a one-horse town, in that it's main industry was government/defense. Fast forward to 2008 and now we are a biotech/telecommunication/medical/tourist hotbed.

Again, nothing is different from the previous decades....

What's different is that the catalyst for the last part of the run up was easy credit. That is not sustainable.

If we're such a hotbed, how come affordabilty numbers are still so bleak? Because incomes don't support current prices.

So you know people out there looking? What's that prove? I do to. I also knew people looking 2 years ago. Did that make 2 years ago the time to buy?

Until rents are closer to the cost to own, there's no logic in claiming prices are supported by shortages. You say we have more people living here. True. By U.S. Census estimates, the county's population increased 4.5% from 2000 to 2006.

San Diego County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau


Average home prices increased over 100% in the county during that time. But you don't see a disconnect. Whatever.

We're far from the bottom.
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Old 05-28-2008, 11:58 AM
 
Location: Rolando, San Diego CA 92115
7,062 posts, read 17,441,384 times
Reputation: 2833
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnAlt View Post
Average home prices increased over 100% in the county during that time. But you don't see a disconnect. Whatever.

We're far from the bottom.
John, you have to admit it's hard convincing others with the "crusade" tactic. You end up looking like a poster with an agenda rather than someone engaging in a position as part of a discussion. The conversation seems to be continually steered towards:

- you know better than anyone else here about something
- you have accurately made a prediction about the future in the past
- you are accurately predicting something now.

That's not a discussion, that's "I told you so" or "I'm right and you're wrong", and you know how well that goes, right?

You catch more flies with honey than vinegar. You haven't even contributed to a single topic outside of this exact same subject. Maybe offering info about how people can capitalize on this down market would be met with more interest and appreciation?
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Old 05-28-2008, 12:49 PM
 
Location: Sandy Eggo - Kensington
3,532 posts, read 6,385,085 times
Reputation: 1527
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnAlt View Post
What's different is that the catalyst for the last part of the run up was easy credit. That is not sustainable.

If we're such a hotbed, how come affordabilty numbers are still so bleak? Because incomes don't support current prices.

So you know people out there looking? What's that prove? I do to. I also knew people looking 2 years ago. Did that make 2 years ago the time to buy?

Until rents are closer to the cost to own, there's no logic in claiming prices are supported by shortages. You say we have more people living here. True. By U.S. Census estimates, the county's population increased 4.5% from 2000 to 2006.

San Diego County QuickFacts from the US Census Bureau


Average home prices increased over 100% in the county during that time. But you don't see a disconnect. Whatever.

We're far from the bottom.
How far from bottoming out are we then? In January 2000, the average home price in SD was $219,000. Do you expect prices to sink to that level in the coming months? I certainly don't.

Again, we are all just speculating, which is exactly what happened earlier this decade that caused prices to rise so quickly.

My point of saying that SD is a hotbed was to point out that our industry is more diversified than ever before, that's it. When General Dynamics & Convair left town years ago, it devastated the SD workforce. Here we are, in a slump again and while many companies are merging and taking hits, it's not like the entire city is falling apart.
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