Future of San Diego house prices? (Sacramento: middle-class, mortgage, buying)

[jnojr]

Obviously, asking for opinions. Base 'em on whatever you want! Include that in a comment if you like.

Personally, I could make an argument for any of these options... we continue to have high demand and low supply. But by any historic measure of affordability, and with interest rates heading up, there's a lot of downward pressure, too. Growth in population and jobs, but a continued flight of middle-class jobs and people to other places. Continued increases in fees and regulations, like solar mandates. A move to ease restrictions on "granny flats" and some development... but a continued threat of lawsuits over environmental issues, resources, zoning, etc. Lots of factors heading both ways!

[LMC White Collar]

I'm not sure if we can sustain middle-income jobs that aren't in the government/education and/or military sectors.

Biotech start ups seem to be leveling off, and Qualcomm is in a stable period (some say the big Q is in a decline, what do other C-D forumers think?)

If the micro-brewery trend begins to decline, I have concerns about small business growth.

To add balance to the somewhat sobering outlook above, NASSCO has orders to build/repair many new ships - look for them to add lower middle and middle income jobs to the local economy for several years to come.

I've also read about a planned expansion to the Navy SEALS base in Silver Stand - look for this
to add 1,000+jobs to our local economy.

I worry about biotech and tech in general. Sacramento, Austin, and the PNW seems to be attracting the priced-out Silicon Valley tech workers - I don't see many coming to San Diego.

My outlook is mixed-negative.

Great thread, hoping to see input from others here.

[LMC White Collar]

also on the bright - Trump is a big proponent of a stronger military and stronger border control. While I'm concerned about his cuts to infrastructure and his tariff plans, my outlook is mixed on his rule, as he favors two of our bigger job creation engines.

[LMC White Collar]

if 30 year fixed mortgage interest rates hit 5% though, it will be a drag on our economy.

[Encinitan]

Based on 20 years of home ownership in Southern California, I chose B -- continue to rise but at a slower pace.
But, I could see new developments going down, even significantly, if a market correction happens like back in 2007-2008.
That said, the coastal corridor did fine back then and would again, I suspect.

[Jdawg8181]

I saw a video about how people who grew up and lived in SD all their lives can no longer afford it.

[Axxlrod]

Of course home prices will go up. Look at home prices have done since the 70's.

That doesn't mean there won't be dips or crashes, but they always rebound.

Rising interest will probably be the only thing can keep them in check.

[1AngryTaxPayer]

Originally Posted by Jdawg8181

I saw a video about how people who grew up and lived in SD all their lives can no longer afford it.

That's been going on for 30-40 years. It happens on both coasts. They are the most desirable places to live and people outbid each other to live there.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by Axxlrod

Of course home prices will go up. Look at home prices have done since the 70's.

That doesn't mean there won't be dips or crashes, but they always rebound.

Rising interest will probably be the only thing can keep them in check.

True, but I suspect it will be a long time before the interest rates will rise enough to be an issue.

[sdlife619]

Unless demand declines heavily, I don’t see prices ever going back down. As long as you have multiple bids on homes, prices will only continue to go up.

I understand it’s supply and demand, but the demand isn’t families making under $100,000 a year, it’s people making well over that much that are buying up all the housing stock I’m assuming. Because there’s no way anyone can afford the median price for a home making less than $120,000 a year especially with no down payment.

Hardly anyone saves anymore, and if they do, it takes forever. I don’t think many middle class households have $100,000 saved up for a down payment on a $550,000 house either. Even with that much down, the mortgage is still high which also doesn’t include utilities, maintenance, unexpected repairs and taxes.

So whoever are buying homes in SD or pretty much anywhere in coastal CA has to be loaded with cash money in order to be able to afford to live here comfortably, and it’s not the Middle Class that’s for sure.