Socal Real Estate & Water Crisis? (San Diego, Orange: real estate market, homes, landscaping)

[Nick682]

I'm curious what others think about this? Personally I think that the water crisis we are having could have a further negative impact on real estate here in the future. I have heard scientists say that with global warming, Socal will only get dryer and the Colorado river with it. We are already monitoring the river level on an annual basis right now because it is at it's lowest levels ever.

With Socal always growing and accepting new people, we will, and already do have a major water problem. We are also very dependent on the water to keep up landscaping in this desert climate, which in turn beatifies the region and raises property values.

I think the first area to cut back with the water shortage will be the landscape watering, and in turn it will make it less beautiful here.

So far, I have seen no really good plans for overcoming this problem, except ocean desalinization, which is really expensive. Either way the water could become very scarce, or very expensive here. So I am curious what others think about this affecting the real estate market. I know that we are already loosing the middle class and I would think that this could aggravate the situation due to high water prices? Also what about the wildfires that are ever increasing and spurred on by the drought conditions?

It seems like there aren't many out there who are considering this potential problem, when talking about the real estate market here? So I'm curious does anyone know something I don't, or are people just not worried about this?

[kettlepot]

Originally Posted by Nick682

With Socal always growing and accepting new people, we will, and already do have a major water problem. We are also very dependent on the water to keep up landscaping in this desert climate, which in turn beatifies the region and raises property values.

I always knew San Diegans were a SAINTLY bunch... One more upgrade and we'll all get to wear halos around our heads.

As to your specific question, besides desalinization there is always Toilet to Tap.... But it's coming eventually. Orange County already does it.

And if solar power ever really hits its stride we could power our desalinization plants with solar power.

[NYSD1995]

There is a lag between the scientist's exclamation of "emergency" and the people's response to it. I think we are in that lag right now. My guess is that another 5-10 years of increasing eco-consciousness should raise awareness of the water and energy issues to the point where people become more vocal about changing it.

The reality is we are not supply constrained, but the demand is outstripping the supply. The idea that Pheonix and Las Vegas, would be first-class water consumers was not something anyone anticipated back when the CA water project was devised.

It still appears that a combination of wastewater recycling and desalinization is inevitable, it's just a question as to whether the cost-to-value benefit is realized. Remember with $1/gas, ethanol fuel seems expensive, but with $4/gal gas, the dynamic changes.

As for real estate values - there's some awfully expensive real estate in places like dubai. I am not sure that your average citizen takes the big picture infrastructure issues into play when making these decisions, although they probably should.

[Nick682]

Originally Posted by Sassberto

There is a lag between the scientist's exclamation of "emergency" and the people's response to it. I think we are in that lag right now. My guess is that another 5-10 years of increasing eco-consciousness should raise awareness of the water and energy issues to the point where people become more vocal about changing it.

The reality is we are not supply constrained, but the demand is outstripping the supply. The idea that Pheonix and Las Vegas, would be first-class water consumers was not something anyone anticipated back when the CA water project was devised.

It still appears that a combination of wastewater recycling and desalinization is inevitable, it's just a question as to whether the cost-to-value benefit is realized. Remember with $1/gas, ethanol fuel seems expensive, but with $4/gal gas, the dynamic changes.

As for real estate values - there's some awfully expensive real estate in places like dubai. I am not sure that your average citizen takes the big picture infrastructure issues into play when making these decisions, although they probably should.

Good point about Dubai, they have obviously not been troubled by their water issues when it comes to real estate appreciation?

Also, I guess it is more of a supply issue from what I've heard too, so if thats the case then it could slow growth down and maybe that would increase the value of existing homes?

[NYSD1995]

Originally Posted by Nick682

Good point about Dubai, they have obviously not been troubled by their water issues when it comes to real estate appreciation?

Also, I guess it is more of a supply issue from what I've heard too, so if thats the case then it could slow growth down and maybe that would increase the value of existing homes?

I think the reaction to the potential for slow growth is what you want to pay attention to. My guess: nothing will slow growth, and water rates will just rise until something gives.

[Nick682]

Originally Posted by Sassberto

I think the reaction to the potential for slow growth is what you want to pay attention to. My guess: nothing will slow growth, and water rates will just rise until something gives.

That's part of what worries me because my mom will stay here for a while when I leave. I want her to see some decent appreciation until she decides to leave.

A town like Santa Barbara for example has labeled itself as a community for the rich and there is no large industry just expensive homes. On the other hand SD has been growing allot and has allot of business and industry to support. Those businesses require low wage and mid-level salary employee's to operate (something that is already a big problem)?

Prices are already high for just about everything here and wages are already low. Don't know if you heard about the janitors strike that is going on right now? They were still being paid just over minimum wage, imagine trying to survive on that? I can't imagine adding high water prices to the equation and not expecting some kind of collapse here?

Also, with the crackdown on illegal immigration, the low price labor this region enjoyed for a decade is disappearing simultaneously. Not to mention the exodus of the middle class. It seems to me that something has to give?

But who knows, maybe the economy and the real estate market here is more resilient than I thought? Those are just a few of my own fears about staying here?

[NYSD1995]

Originally Posted by Nick682

But who knows, maybe the economy and the real estate market here is more resilient than I thought? Those are just a few of my own fears about staying here?

Cities can decline for a long time and rarely fail outright. Even Detroit, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Cleveland still have nice neighborhoods and areas of revitalization and they have been declining for years and years. I see no chance for a similar fate for any California city.

San Diego is not a city in decline, it is a city that is growing, albeit somewhat slowly. Generally speaking there is a constant struggle in any growing city between growth and the infrastructure to support it.

NYC in the 70's was downright scary and a lot of people wrote it off. They said the same thing then - immigrants, crime, declining industry, etc... Those people were dead wrong! The people who stayed and bought in are sitting on the most expensive real estate in the country.

Generally I think you are falling into the trap of letting the media's and internet bloggers' use of hyperbole skew your thinking. They love to talk about things in terms of major activity: "exodus of the middle class" and "illegal immigrant crackdowns" but the reality usually is a lot less obvious.

It's easy and convenient to personalize a city around the soundbites that help us understand the world we live in, but the reality is that cities are made of individuals, and the actions of individuals are usually contradictory, unpredictable, and rarely easily generalized.

[Nick682]

Originally Posted by Sassberto

Cities can decline for a long time and rarely fail outright. Even Detroit, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and Cleveland still have nice neighborhoods and areas of revitalization and they have been declining for years and years. I see no chance for a similar fate for any California city.

San Diego is not a city in decline, it is a city that is growing, albeit somewhat slowly. Generally speaking there is a constant struggle in any growing city between growth and the infrastructure to support it.

NYC in the 70's was downright scary and a lot of people wrote it off. They said the same thing then - immigrants, crime, declining industry, etc... Those people were dead wrong! The people who stayed and bought in are sitting on the most expensive real estate in the country.

Generally I think you are falling into the trap of letting the media's and internet bloggers' use of hyperbole skew your thinking. They love to talk about things in terms of major activity: "exodus of the middle class" and "illegal immigrant crackdowns" but the reality usually is a lot less obvious.

It's easy and convenient to personalize a city around the soundbites that help us understand the world we live in, but the reality is that cities are made of individuals, and the actions of individuals are usually contradictory, unpredictable, and rarely easily generalized.

Yeah, my main worry is the water supply, I just hope they can figure out something that is sustainable for the long term. I'm pretty sure SD can recover from the rest of it. The economy has always been very resilient here.

I did forget about the toilet to tap program, maybe that with ocean desalinization will provide the answer?

[NYSD1995]

Originally Posted by Nick682

Yeah, my main worry is the water supply, I just hope they can figure out something that is sustainable for the long term. I'm pretty sure SD can recover from the rest of it. The economy has always been very resilient here.

I did forget about the toilet to tap program, maybe that with ocean desalinization will provide the answer?

Rain catchment basins in large buildings
wastewater landscaping systems much more common
home greywater systems

if you look at someplace like Australia, many people have these setups.