Empty, Economic, future os San Diego. (Carlsbad, Poway: real estate, apartment, condos)
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Is San Diego Downtown going to grow commercially. Since the 2005 boom & our falling finances I always wondered all those buildings going up they aren't even owned by the city but wealthy companies & there's no one living there. The prices are to high. The major economic areas in the city are its manufacturing in Bio techs, tourism, & defenses. But if there going to revive downtown they need to bring businesses not all those empty condos. Why build when from 2005 continued housing prices dropped & was bought out by investors & were going to "get rich" by selling it high. Loans being taken out for no return just emptied banks. A waste of money. Even with San Diego's tons of businesses that are large you would think it wouldn't happen but maybe its just part of the economic crisis but it all ties in with the bubbling real estate prices from the 2000s now dropping.
We really do need more high rise office towers but those are often the riskiest bets a developer can make since most of the time you can't just sell an officer tower and instead end up by the manager trying to find renters. Compare that to a high rise apartment development where you set up an HMO, sell the units, and then get out of dodge with a wad of cash in your pocket. Sadly, the city doesn't seem interested in making developers build commercial high rises (and they can make them via the licensing process "You want condo development X, I want commercial high rise Y built, agree to do Y before X or I I won't license X and your entire land investment becomes worthless") and as a result businesses don't move here because it is to hard to find suitable offices and when they can find some they cost an arm and a leg.
A lot of people seem to be interested in making San Diego something it isn't. San Diego is not going to attract commercial development beyond boutique-type biotech and R&D. That is a conscious decision on the part of the city and it's residents, beyond the general trend of businesses relocating out of California to other parts of the Sunbelt.
San Diego remains a resort and retirement destination city and is entering a long slow-to-no growth period. That means continued luxury condo and townhome development. Commercial services for San Diego's large aging demographic will include financial services and healthcare services.
Large-scale commerce and industry and the necessary workforce housing is not aligned with that type of development. The reality is that many workers in the middle-income ranges will continue to leave and be replaced by a combination of federally subsidized middle-income military personnel, low-income immigrants, and wealthy retirees.
Younger workers with an eye on career growth should either align themselves with the high-demand, high-paying industry San Diego does have (wireless, biotech, healthcare) or look towards other cities that are growing and are making a conscious effort to attract new business and existing business from CA (AZ, CO, TX, NV, UT, etc).
Sassberto, it would seem from your analysis that SD is steadily headed toward (if not already at) a circumstance of a primarily older demographic with some amount of disposable income and less a demographic of families with young children. That type of circumstance usually bodes well for city and county governments because that demographic doesn't typically have a high demand for resources aside from health care and various entertainment venues. And naturally with the economic crisis, many retirees' retirement has been put on hold, if not altogether destroyed, which ought to reduce the influx of retirees to any retirement destination across America for at least 10 years, which would confirm the slow-to-no growth period. My question is- do you think that SD's financial situation ought to significantly improve because of the fact it shouldn't have to dedicate a (relative) lot of resources to things like new schools, road and interstate expansion, etc.? California has made a lot of news recently for not being able to make budget. Do you think the SD area going forward will one of the areas which tends not to have budgetary problems and therefore tends to be able to easily provide services to its residents? I know it's speculation, but I'd be interested to know what you think.
I have worked in downtown SD for 26 years now and 4 of my friends that work here have had their companies relocate out of DT within the past six
months...my company is also relocating. Right now, commerical real estate is begging for tenants and a company can get an incredible deal in a much more desirable location (with cheaper parking, etc.)
IMO, unless you are an attorney and need to be near the courthouse on a regular basis, there is no reason to be here. DT SD is not the hub of business, UTC, Sorrento and Carlsbad are.
Companies have moved out of SD (and California) because the taxes here are not condusive to doing business here any longer. That's why we don't get alot of corporate HQ's.
The infrastructure in DT is crumbling, the city of SD is broke...the streets are actually buckling along the trolley tracks. Honestly, I believe SD has seen it's best days and once people can sell their houses again, you will see a mass exodus of baby boomers leaving for cheaper pastures.
Don't get me wrong, it's still way better than alot of other places in the US that have major economic problems...but as far as business growth, I just don't see it.
Last edited by loveautumn; 03-26-2009 at 02:04 PM..
Reason: add information
Companies have moved out of SD (and California) because the taxes here are not condusive to doing business here any longer. That's why we don't get alot of corporate HQ's.
You nailed it. There has to be tax incentives for businesses and corporations to stay downtown (and in state). New business towers are not frequently built unless you have a committed long term tenant in mind, and that takes a lot of haggling and concessions to do.
Additionally, I do not see the city gov't as having the vision to build up the downtown area. That is not in their agenda. I see their vision more as having the condos built as a way to increase the population density which will inflate property values in hopes of generating greater tax revenue for the city.
There was a really great CityBeat article on this a few weeks back. Good thread.
My question is- do you think that SD's financial situation ought to significantly improve because of the fact it shouldn't have to dedicate a (relative) lot of resources to things like new schools, road and interstate expansion, etc.?
Military personnel and immigrants have children, and those children have needs for services. SDUSD has declining enrollment district-wide but overcrowding in many older areas. It's unclear to me how that trend will reverse, especially as suburban districts like Carlsbad or Poway continue to grow. San Diego has continually allowed developers to get sweetheart deals to build density. That means they never get the revenue they need to support the new people that move here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MantaRay
Do you think the SD area going forward will one of the areas which tends not to have budgetary problems and therefore tends to be able to easily provide services to its residents?
San Diego has the triple whammy of a structural deficit (we spend more than we make), an untenable pension deficit (with no real plan to fix it), and a tax-averse population which has twice voted down fire protection. San Diego has a long tradition of underfunded public services and given the situation the state is in, that will most likely continue for a long time to come. I predict serious cuts in public service to be inevitable in the short term. San Diego is essentially bankrupt.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mossomo
Additionally, I do not see the city gov't as having the vision to build up the downtown area. That is not in their agenda. I see their vision more as having the condos built as a way to increase the population density which will inflate property values in hopes of generating greater tax revenue for the city.
Agree. Downtown San Diego is luxury housing for wealthy retirees and singles, many of whom are from out-of-state.
I don't see San Diego's future as dim, just not particularly strong. Wealthy retirees are not a demographic that contributes to a growing economy. The strong growth will remain in ultra-expensive areas like coastal and inland North County, which have their own cities, their own schools, and are largely forging ahead without San Diego itself.
Last edited by Sassberto; 03-26-2009 at 02:59 PM..
It seems all the wrong things are happening. Its sad to see this beautiful city go down like that. But yes I knew that La Jolla & those areas had the BioTechs & services but theres no where to go. If the businesses dont move out of state then they move to the suburbs.
It seems all the wrong things are happening. Its sad to see this beautiful city go down like that. But yes I knew that La Jolla & those areas had the BioTechs & services but theres no where to go. If the businesses dont move out of state then they move to the suburbs.
Hard to say whether or not it's "wrong". Biotech and wireless are good industries with high-paying jobs for highly-educated people. Many people in those areas will continue to benefit from that. But that is only a small part of the population of the city. Inland counties are luring a lot of middle class jobs away from the coastal cities and have the inexpensive housing to allow workers to build lives there too.
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