Low land snow event (San Francisco, Oakland: how much, school, university)

[Zachj7]

Possible low land snow event for the bay area/ central valley. My meteorology professor said that he wouldn't be surprised if SF downtown saw a measurable snow. Forecast models have been forecasting this event for quite some time, however it can sometimes be hard to take them seriously if they forecast low land snow. The forecast is for rain to begin early Thursday and continue through early Saturday with a possible transition to snow Saturday morning. It all depends how much moisture there is Saturday. Pretty interesting stuff.

Make sure you take lots pics if snow does fall. I am currently at University of Oklahoma in their meteorology program so I wont be there for this.

This is all possible, but not certain that snow will fall at sea level. In the Oakland hills, I would expect to see some flakes fly with a possible inch or so.

Below are some excerpts from the National Weather Service in SF.

"ALL ATTENTION REMAINS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTHWARD PUTTING IT JUST OFF THE CA/OR
COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND NEAR SF BAY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE NV/AZ BORDER BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE THAT HAS COME IN SHOWS AMAZINGLY LITTLE
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. IN FACT BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
SPREAD IS SMALL WITH THE POSITION OF THE LOW FOR THE DURATION.
ALTHOUGH SOME DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT...LOOK FOR RAINFALL
TO SPREAD NORTH TO SOUTH ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MORE
THAN HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE FOR URBAN SPOTS AND MORE THAN AN INCH FOR
HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. 700 MB TEMPS WILL DROP AS THE LOW TRACKS
THROUGH OUR AREA AND BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN MINUS 16 AND 18C FRIDAY NIGHT
AND 500 MB LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE DOWN TO 529DM. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
SOLUTION YOU LOOK AT...WE ARE GOING TO BE IN MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL
WEATHER (AND EVEN LOCALLY RECORD-BREAKING) BOTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. WHAT REMAINS A BIGGER QUESTION IS THE TIMING OF ANY
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES. SOME SCENARIOS
BRING RAIN ACROSS SF BAY THROUGH FRIDAY THEN HAVE PRECIP ENDING BY
THE EVENING WITH JUST A FEW MINOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. OTHER SOLUTIONS
KEEP MORE PRECIP NEAR METRO AREAS THROUGH ALL OF FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH
IDEAS WOULD DROP SNOW LEVELS CLOSE TO SEA LEVEL...HOWEVER ONLY THE
SECOND SOLUTION WOULD PRODUCE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR CITIES AROUND
SF BAY. WOULD DEFINITELY EXPECT SOME WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND
POSSIBLY WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED AS THIS GETS CLOSER. FINALLY...
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE NOT THE BEST...CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT THUNDER OR EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL. WILL ISSUE AN SPS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON."

""DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE STATE SPREADING RAIN
SHOWERS INTO THE NORTH BAY VALLEYS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ITS POSSIBLE THAT SNOW LEVELS COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 1000 FEET BY
EARLY FRIDAY. LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY A RECORD COLD AIRMASS IS
FORECAST TO DROP OVER THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE VERY LOW
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS BETWEEN 500 FEET AND SEA LEVEL. A DRYING AND
MODEST WARMING TREND IS FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY."

" HOWEVER AS WAS NOTED LAST NIGHT THERE ARE NOT MANY
WIDESPREAD LOW ELEVATION SNOW EVENTS OVER THE LAST 100 YEARS. I
LOOKED AGAIN AT THE JAN 21 1962 EVENT AND REALIZED THIS WAS THE STORM
THAT COINED THE TERM "CROSBY WEATHER". ITS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
KSFO MEASURED 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW ON THAT DATE AS WELL...SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD LOW ELEVATION SNOW. FOR THE RECORD THATS THE LARGEST
MEASURABLE SNOW EVENT FOR KSFO WITH RECORDS GOING BACK TO 1927 AT
THAT SITE."

[18Montclair]

I have to admit, Im a bit excited to see it. LOL

Mainly because we know its such a rarity.

[mayorhaggar]

WTF. God dammit if this actually happens. If it actually snows in lowland coastal-ish places like SF and Oakland it's going to be chaos, nobody will know how to deal with it, and I'd expect BART to mess up bigtime.

[Bulldogdad]

Whew those Hill areas in SF are gonna be a nightmare if some of the higher ones get some measurable snow. I would just stay out of the City this Friday and Sat.

[ubringliten]

I can't seem to picture snow and SF go together. I am hoping I am wrong!

[18Montclair]

5" of snow fell in San Francisco in 1887.

http://foundsf.org/images/4/47/Missi...ssion-1887.jpg

I think this is from the 1970s?
http://pictopia.com/perl/get_image?provider_id=6&ptp_photo_id=sfgate:840622 3&size=420x300_mb&re=1&m=1294117128.0 (broken link)
http://pictopia.com/perl/get_image?provider_id=6&ptp_photo_id=sfgate:840622 3&size=420x300_mb&re=1&m=1294117128.0 (broken link)

Carquinez Bridge in the 1970s?
http://pictopia.com/perl/get_image?provider_id=6&ptp_photo_id=sfgate:848282 8&size=420x300_mb&re=1&m=1253047680.0 (broken link)
http://pictopia.com/perl/get_image?provider_id=6&ptp_photo_id=sfgate:848282 8&size=420x300_mb&re=1&m=1253047680.0 (broken link)

[Taboo2]

Originally Posted by 18Montclair

I have to admit, Im a bit excited to see it. LOL

Mainly because we know its such a rarity.

Last time was like 1976 or so. I believe the kids could miss school in the morning for this kind of FUN event!

[lmk1707]

Originally Posted by mayorhaggar

WTF. God dammit if this actually happens. If it actually snows in lowland coastal-ish places like SF and Oakland it's going to be chaos, nobody will know how to deal with it, and I'd expect BART to mess up bigtime.

Hey Grinchy McScrooge, I'm gonna pelt you with a snowball

[calbear11]

Ordinarily I would be very excited to see snow in the Bay Area, but I recently planted two small palm trees and I am worried about how they will do with this storm. I think I am going to temporarily wrap them up in plastic to endure the storm.

[mayorhaggar]

I'd love to see snow (especially if I can get my hands on some long underwear for under my pants, fortunately I still have my old down jacket from Chicago), I'm just dreading the commute on Friday if the snow hits anything lower than the tops of Twin Peaks--hopefully it's just Friday night though and not in the afternoon or early evening.

And yeah if anyone has plants outside I'd bring them in if you can...pets too.