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Old 01-26-2013, 12:18 PM
 
Location: Lafayette, CA
2,518 posts, read 1,678,752 times
Reputation: 588
Quote:
Originally Posted by jade408 View Post
I disagree with you. South Beach is in a bubble. Everyone is excited about the new Mission Bay complex etc. Prices are artificially high in my opinion.
People have been saying that about the area for over a decade.

Have you seen what a 1 bedroom rents for in South Beachmod cut?

Rents for South Beach are skyrocketing, and have been for YEARS. We're talking $2700 at the LOW end. Even if you do find one, your application is going into a stack of 50 qualified renters where you have very little chance of actually getting into the unit. San Francisco's rental market is ridiculously hot right now, and has been for the past 3 years. It's a combination of super high paying tech jobs, super low rental supply, and lots and lots of competition. It will take years to build more supply in S.F, in fact it's a major issue for the city. These are factors Uptown will never experience.

I only wish I had bought a few more South Beach properties back in 2009 when I could scoop them up at auction for 40% less all cash. But I'm glad I picked up a few because I'm making a killing, as is any other owner in the area. But what do I know, I actually make money in that market and know the fundamentals first hand, I'm sure you do so much research about South Beach from all the way on Piedmont Ave.

As for Uptown? You can find TWO bedrooms for LESS than $2400. I think we both know which market has the better rental/profit ratio.

Last edited by Sam I Am; 01-26-2013 at 02:19 PM..
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:30 PM
 
Location: Oakland, CA
17,069 posts, read 11,248,641 times
Reputation: 12453
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocGoldstein View Post
People have been saying that about the area for over a decade.

Have you seen what a 1 bedroom rents for in South Beach or are you simply just talking out of an ignorant position? We're talking $2700 at the LOW end. Even if you do find one, your application is going into a stack of 50 qualified renters. San Francisco's rental market is ridiculously hot right now, and has been for the past 3 years.
And the mortgages + HOAs on those same 1 bedroom condos are more like $3500-$4000. The rental market is great right now. But the first round of SOMA condos came on the market at $650-800k. Way overpriced. The $470k is about the right price, but in my book a poor value.


Quote:
I only wish I had bought a few more South Beach properties back in 2009 when I could scoop them up at auction for 40% less all cash. But I'm glad I picked up a few because I'm making a killing, as is any other owner in the area. But what do I know, I actually make money in that market and know the fundamentals first hand, I'm sure you do so much research about South Beach from all the way on Piedmont Ave.
If you had cash to buy those places for ~350-500k then you can probably make the math work out. If you aren't a cash buyer, then the math doesn't work. And I know plenty of professionals that bough into the hype and bought at the top of the market and are SOL. Very different than coming in from an investor angle.

For the average non-cash buyer the Uptown math works out better. If your life situation changes in a couple of years, the rents and mortgages line up really well there. So you could rent it out and pay for your mortgage. You can't do that in SOMA/SoBe.

Quote:
Uptown? You can find TWO bedrooms for LESS. I think we both know which market has the better rental/profit ratio.
No you can't. There aren't all that many buildings in Uptown. There are a few cheaper buildings in the broader downtown Oakland area. Generally from around 2001 or so. The two bedrooms you saw for less are probably in that "uptown" building in the very transitional block where the prices are 50% of all other downtown condos because the surrounding blocks are sketchy. That building is on the wrong side of Grand. All of the other Uptown places are priced pretty similar. The condos at the high end of the pricing are generally in statement buildings/converted into lofts from offices or something.

There are a few other buildings around Old Oakland that are a better value than some of the ones in Uptown, but the Uptown buildings are taking advantage of the buzz and the SF transplants that were priced out of Mission and SOMA.
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:38 PM
 
Location: Lafayette, CA
2,518 posts, read 1,678,752 times
Reputation: 588
Quote:
Originally Posted by jade408 View Post
And the mortgages + HOAs on those same 1 bedroom condos are more like $3500-$4000. The rental market is great right now. But the first round of SOMA condos came on the market at $650-800k. Way overpriced. The $470k is about the right price, but in my book a poor value.
I don't know what $800k properties you're talking about (or making up), but I literally just showed you a 1 bedroom that sold for $469,000 and would rent EASILY for $3000 right now.

With 20% down and a 3.375 rate (par for today) that's $1658. Even with the $500 HOA, you're still up over $800 profit per month.

There isn't a single 1 bedroom uptown condo that could even sniff that profit margin.

Quote:
No you can't. There aren't all that many buildings in Uptown.
Oh yes you can!
$2230 / 2br - 1085ft² - 1-341| Courtyard Suite |Available Now (oakland downtown)

I just called and it's still available. The guy wanted me to come down TODAY and see if I liked it.

Here's another one for even less on the border of Uptown:
http://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa/3562922637.html

Yup, still available!

Now go and find a 1 bedroom in South Beach for $2700 that is available to go and see right now for rent.

mod cut

Last edited by Sam I Am; 01-26-2013 at 02:20 PM.. Reason: stop being snarky
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:42 PM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland
24,927 posts, read 31,755,507 times
Reputation: 10577
The rental market and real estate are 2 entirely different things. Part of the reason why the entire Bay Area has seen steep rises in rents is because people who lost their homes needed somewhere to live so they were competing with renters. Banks were also being stingy and holding back on loaning to even qualified buyers and that affected prices, inventory and eventually the rental market too. But all of that is pertinent to 2008-2010. Since then the local economy has improved rather dramatically and that has affected the real estste and rental market as well.

For anyone to suggest that Oakland has not also been positively impacted as well is the height of foolishness. For someone to suggest that unless Oakland us experiencing a greater increase than SF, therefore its a bad unvestment, then they need to really get out of the habit of market speculation.

Also, its ironic that the issue of affordability in SF isnt being brought to light, nor is the fact that there are some very sketchy areas a stones throw from South Beach snd the nearest public schools are deplorable by the standards of doe-eyed middl class families with kids and so forth.

But then, Oakland is held to a much stricter standard. Yawns.
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Old 01-26-2013, 12:59 PM
 
Location: Oakland, CA
17,069 posts, read 11,248,641 times
Reputation: 12453
Quote:
Originally Posted by DocGoldstein View Post
I
Oh yes you can!
$2230 / 2br - 1085ft² - 1-341| Courtyard Suite |Available Now (oakland downtown)

I just called and it's still available. The guy wanted me to come down TODAY and see if I liked it.
***That's an apartment complex. You can't buy in that building. It was designed as rentals, with no intent of going condo. It is also known for being an annoying building to rent in, they jack up the rents 20-30% at the end of your lease. High turnover and crappy management. They guarantee parking, but let non permitted people park there, so the people paying for parking get annoyed and move out since their spots aren't guaranteed. I have met quite a few people who moved out of that building due to the management. Horrible ratings on apartments.com and the similar sites. That'll be available for awhile until they clean up their management.

Quote:

Here's another one for even less on the border of Uptown:
$2200 / 2br - 1100ft² - Partially Furnished 2 bdrm/2 Bath in Newer Condo (oakland downtown)

Yup, still available!
This guy made a good investment. 2 bedrooms in that building were selling for $230-250k about a year ago. Whoever owns should easily make a profit. HOAs there are about $350. So, the owner should net $1000 easily. That math looks pretty good to me. Even if you only put 10% down! Or even less.


***Those SoBE/SOMA condos were $700-$800k in 2009 or so. Now the pricing is finally reasonably realistic. Too bad for the early birds who bought in SOMA though back during the bubble.
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Old 01-26-2013, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Lafayette, CA
2,518 posts, read 1,678,752 times
Reputation: 588
Yeah it's my fault that South Beach is located very close to a lot of tech firms like KABAM, and GLU Mobile who pay their engineers $120,000+ to make smart phone apps, and it's my fault that S.F rental supply has been anemic for the past 15 years. I take full blame for S.F having tons of high paying jobs, and being an attractive city to live where people all over the country are willing to compete for such a small supply of housing. Maybe I should invest based on my personal feelings and buy Uptown condos where they rent for 50% less, and Oakland's unemployment rate is 14%.

Man I'm sorry for reading the market for actual fundamentals, and not investing in a place like Uptown where I'd never get my money back.

Different standards indeed.
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Old 01-26-2013, 01:48 PM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland
24,927 posts, read 31,755,507 times
Reputation: 10577
Once again, its actually quite well, stupid, to suggest that unless Uptown emulates South Beach in every aspect, Uptown is not worth the investment. I mean talk about an oversimplifed understanding-and I dont cringe easily but..oh nevermind.
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Old 01-26-2013, 02:35 PM
 
Location: Zurich, Switzerland
24,927 posts, read 31,755,507 times
Reputation: 10577
Quote:
Originally Posted by jade408 View Post
***That's an apartment complex. You can't buy in that building. It was designed as rentals, with no intent of going condo. It is also known for being an annoying building to rent in, they jack up the rents 20-30% at the end of your lease. High turnover and crappy management. They guarantee parking, but let non permitted people park there, so the people paying for parking get annoyed and move out since their spots aren't guaranteed. I have met quite a few people who moved out of that building due to the management. Horrible ratings on apartments.com and the similar sites. That'll be available for awhile until they clean up their management.



This guy made a good investment. 2 bedrooms in that building were selling for $230-250k about a year ago. Whoever owns should easily make a profit. HOAs there are about $350. So, the owner should net $1000 easily. That math looks pretty good to me. Even if you only put 10% down! Or even less.


***Those SoBE/SOMA condos were $700-$800k in 2009 or so. Now the pricing is finally reasonably realistic. Too bad for the early birds who bought in SOMA though back during the bubble.
BOOM.

lol

The last part about pre-recession buyers being burned us 100% true. The market peaked in the summer of 2007 and median home prices are still trying to catch up.
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Old 01-26-2013, 03:17 PM
 
Location: Studio City, CA
116 posts, read 82,486 times
Reputation: 39
Doc making great points.
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Old 01-26-2013, 09:41 PM
 
Location: Lafayette, CA
2,518 posts, read 1,678,752 times
Reputation: 588
Quote:
Originally Posted by jade408 View Post
***That's an apartment complex. You can't buy in that building. It was designed as rentals, with no intent of going condo. It is also known for being an annoying building to rent in, they jack up the rents 20-30% at the end of your lease. High turnover and crappy management. They guarantee parking, but let non permitted people park there, so the people paying for parking get annoyed and move out since their spots aren't guaranteed. I have met quite a few people who moved out of that building due to the management. Horrible ratings on apartments.com and the similar sites. That'll be available for awhile until they clean up their management.



This guy made a good investment. 2 bedrooms in that building were selling for $230-250k about a year ago. Whoever owns should easily make a profit. HOAs there are about $350. So, the owner should net $1000 easily. That math looks pretty good to me. Even if you only put 10% down! Or even less.


***Those SoBE/SOMA condos were $700-$800k in 2009 or so. Now the pricing is finally reasonably realistic. Too bad for the early birds who bought in SOMA though back during the bubble.
Yup, and now we both know you were extremely wrong about the rental/profit ratio in Uptown vs South Beach just like you were wrong in trying to argue Los Feliz was in "west la".

That's what happens when you examine facts instead of "opinion and anecdotal fantasies".
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