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East Oakland?
OP, you already know the answer. You are just trying to spin your way because you can't afford anywhere else.
Hmm.. Similar to those buying in W Oakland in the 90s? Or N... Or basically a bunch of areas around OAk... Or the Mission.... Or Brooklyn... Or NE Minneapolis... They sure are doing horrible now... Scared white ppl present the best opportunities.
Not quite. I'm in my early 20s and am doing very well, especially for my age.. I'm rather frugal (economics major... Work in finance). Most importantly, I really like culture/art/street art/city lifestyle. Id like to buy close to public transit in interesting/arty areas (ie/ OAK, as I can't afford SF now... In 5 yrs yes).
The U.S. Is currently reverting back to the more traditional structure of a city (European... If you've ever been to London/Paris or anywhere else in the World) because of falling crime rates (abortion and a more harmonious society without as much racial tension).
This natural city/metro structure is wealthy inner cities with lots of amenities (close to jobs, transit, etc.) with lower income suburbs. This is currently happening throughout the U.S. (Google it or look at Brooklyn, N/S Minneapolis, Oakland, etc.). Also look at Pitsburgh and Antioch if you want to see ex-Oaklanders (apologize for any offense).
I'm merely acknowledging this ongoing trend and engaging with it. My wishes are: 1) public transit 2) interesting, not boring suburbs 2) easy access to jobs
Oakland is merely reverting back to its norm (similar to China overtaking US economically... Duh! The U.S. Was a statistical anomaly for a blip of history... For most of history China has dominated the World economically).
Oakland traditionally has not been extremely low income/ghetto (that's an anomaly brought on by white flight, racial violence and other sad historical moments in U.S. History/Bay history). With declining racial tension and violence, where do you think millennials are going? (I'll give you a clue: most my friends can't afford a 1 million home in SF, so they buy in Oakland- the best of public transit and opportunities... Also very artistic/interesting... Not a boring suburb).
Ended up visiting E Oakland today... Nothing like people are saying. Rough patches? Some. (Nothing like Chicago, Detroit, Gary, St Louis... Go visit some actual ghettos. I would HARDLY call E Oakland a ghetto.. Similar to that ghetto Brooklyn!). Please... Go visit S Chi or Gary or E STL.
Mostly Latinos with some patches of African Americans. Lots of white families too. A few newer model BMWs and Mercedez lmao.
Only bad areas are close to the Bay (industrial areas). Mostly just working class/lower income and heavy Latino presence.
The reason why East Oakland won't change that fast is because it's mostly not about renters being forced out by higher rents. There are plenty of families that own their homes that have many family members living there, including some not-so-focused youth.
I don't think there is a "natural" anything, I don't know where you get that hypothesis. The examples you site are exceptions, not the rule. Wish you were right, but the U.S. is most definitely not reverting to city structure. Sprawl is restarting, average new home size is going up again. Consumer preferences are still for the suburbs. I think that the one thing that would change that is very significantly higher gas prices over a sustained period of time. We haven't seen that yet.
"low income/ghetto...." - that is not about white flight or historical "moments," it's about deindustrialization. You're mistaking causes.
Like I said, go for it for the adventure, and I predict you'll break even in oh, about 20 years. Just don't expect to flip anything. If you're in your early 20s, though, why the hell would you tie yourself down? Why not wait 5 to 7 years? or 10 years? You have no idea what you will be like as a person in even 5 years. If you're so sure you can afford SF in 5 years, then why waste time on a risky bet. You seem to think that real estate only goes up.
Just read your last post. Let me also say that I've been there, and it does look much better than it sounds. Lots of families, lots of good patches. But the crime statistics and folks hanging out on streets speak for themselves.
The reason why East Oakland won't change that fast is because it's mostly not about renters being forced out by higher rents. There are plenty of families that own their homes that have many family members living there, including some not-so-focused youth.
I don't think there is a "natural" anything, I don't know where you get that hypothesis. The examples you site are exceptions, not the rule. Wish you were right, but the U.S. is most definitely not reverting to city structure. Sprawl is restarting, average new home size is going up again. Consumer preferences are still for the suburbs. I think that the one thing that would change that is very significantly higher gas prices over a sustained period of time. We haven't seen that yet.
"low income/ghetto...." - that is not about white flight or historical "moments," it's about deindustrialization. You're mistaking causes.
Like I said, go for it for the adventure, and I predict you'll break even in oh, about 20 years. Just don't expect to flip anything. If you're in your early 20s, though, why the hell would you tie yourself down? Why not wait 5 to 7 years? or 10 years? You have no idea what you will be like as a person in even 5 years. If you're so sure you can afford SF in 5 years, then why waste time on a risky bet. You seem to think that real estate only goes up.
Just read your last post. Let me also say that I've been there, and it does look much better than it sounds. Lots of families, lots of good patches. But the crime statistics and folks hanging out on streets speak for themselves.
....said the person in Palo Alto ie/ the archetype of gentrified- just look at E Palo Altos transformation.
There has been TONS of research on white flight in America Mr. Palo Alto.
Nobody actually likes the suburbs. They suck. They're boring; devoid of life; ruin the environment. Fake lives in track homes. No authenticity. BORING. Nobody my age wants to actually live in Palo Alto or the peninsula. SF or OAK yes.
My family rents here, in a low cost situation. We are far, far from the median income here, although we're above middle class for the USA and the state. If you knew this area at all, you'd know that Palo Alto has many middle class families who have been here for ages, and are wealthy in property only. They are slowly leaving to cash out, but they exist all over the peninsula.
Palo Alto is a very special situation, with proximity to Stanford and the perceived status conferred by that, established Chinese commutity, startup culture, combining with local entrepreneurs and overseas new money seeking trophy properties all combining to create exceptional pricing, even by Bay Area standards. It's a very unique gentrification, not at all an archetype.
Generally I think you're extremely sure of yourself, and are painting with a very broad brush. Expecting one city in one state to follow the same trajectory as other cities in other states (e.g. Brooklyn happened, everybody got rich, so the same will happen in Oakland!!!!) is faulty reasoning. Good luck.
"nobody likes the suburbs"? You are nuts. The market is speaking. As soon as people get older and have kids, schools become the priority. And thanks for the condescension on white flight, as if I don't know what that means or havent' lived through it (I have) - from the caucasian side My family stayed, we saw others leave.
I'm done with communicating with you, you're far too arrogant and sloppy with facts.
My family rents here, in a low cost situation. We are far, far from the median income here, although we're above middle class for the USA and the state. If you knew this area at all, you'd know that Palo Alto has many middle class families who have been here for ages, and are wealthy in property only. They are slowly leaving to cash out, but they exist all over the peninsula.
Palo Alto is a very special situation, with proximity to Stanford and the perceived status conferred by that, established Chinese commutity, startup culture, combining with local entrepreneurs and overseas new money seeking trophy properties all combining to create exceptional pricing, even by Bay Area standards. It's a very unique gentrification, not at all an archetype.
Generally I think you're extremely sure of yourself, and are painting with a very broad brush. Expecting one city in one state to follow the same trajectory as other cities in other states (e.g. Brooklyn happened, everybody got rich, so the same will happen in Oakland!!!!) is faulty reasoning. Good luck.
"nobody likes the suburbs"? You are nuts. The market is speaking. As soon as people get older and have kids, schools become the priority. And thanks for the condescension on white flight, as if I don't know what that means or havent' lived through it (I have) - from the caucasian side My family stayed, we saw others leave.
I'm done with communicating with you, you're far too arrogant and sloppy with facts.
"Cashing out"... Lol! I'm not saying OAK is Brooklyn. I'm saying they both share identical characteristics (restrictive supply of housing pushing individuals into close areas that are similar). NYC metro is #1 in Fortune 500s and guess who's #2? Bay Area... Both are the primary drivers of economic activity in the U.S. With increasing globalization, they will both dominate even more. NYC is the capital of finance and SF the capital of tech. Both have arcane policies restricting land development... Very very similar
Looking at population growth in the Bay Area against housing supply, it's easy to see why OAk and SF are gentrifying. Everything will be gentrified unless 1) you infill the Bay with sand and build on it 2) liberalize restrictive housing development policy. OAK has been gentrifying since the 90s! The Nineties! Go look it up! This is not a matter of if or when. This has been an ongoing transformation for 20+ yrs. African Americans have fallen from 43.9% of OAk population in 1990 to 28% of OAK population in 2010! That is crazy.
Much of the black population in Oakland is being supplanted by Hispanics, who have doubled in population from 13% of Oakland in 1990 to 26% in 2013. They will soon be the largest ethnic group in Oakland, if they aren't already, outnumbering both blacks and whites. This trend is also occurring in Richmond, where Hispanics now outnumber all other races. EPA is probably the most extreme example of this trend, a city that was once majority black is now majority Hispanic.
Last edited by calicoastal; 07-03-2015 at 12:01 AM..
Ended up visiting E Oakland today... Nothing like people are saying. Rough patches? Some. (Nothing like Chicago, Detroit, Gary, St Louis... Go visit some actual ghettos. I would HARDLY call E Oakland a ghetto.. Similar to that ghetto Brooklyn!). Please... Go visit S Chi or Gary or E STL.
Mostly Latinos with some patches of African Americans. Lots of white families too. A few newer model BMWs and Mercedez lmao.
Only bad areas are close to the Bay (industrial areas). Mostly just working class/lower income and heavy Latino presence.
You may be right about the long term (although I stress long term) future about East Oakland. But saying that the only bad parts of East Oakland are the industrial areas betrays your ignorance. East Oakland is still probably the most dangerous neighborhood in the Bay Area. North Richmond's worse, but it's tiny. Maybe Hunters Point. Now, if you're using a broad definition of East Oakland, there are some decent areas (the neighborhoods recommended above). But if Deep East Oakland isn't a bad neighborhood, what is? Bad neighborhoods in California don't look like the bombed out/abandoned neighborhoods out east, but that doesn't mean they are any safer. Look at Compton, for example. The other thing about Oakland is that the crime isn't just violent crime among gang members. There's also high levels of property crime. So while your not likely to be physically harmed in East Oakland, you very well may be robbed, burglarized, or have your car stolen.
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My family stayed, we saw others leave.
