Where do you see these Bay Area cities in 20 years? (San Francisco: college, income)

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Originally Posted by rah

Sounds about right, except for the part about losing latinos. Census data shows that the latino/hispanic population has been rising non-stop since the 1940s (along with the asian population). Why would it suddenly stop growing and then start shrinking? And why do you predict that for latinos, but not asians? Sure, it could happen...It just doesn't seem as likely as continued growth for both groups, which is what we've been seeing for over half a century.

Well in bound Latino immigration has leveled off and that is probably not a momentary pause. In the typical source countries birthrates have been declining since the 1980s and for the past 10 years its been more or less a plunge in birthrates.

Meanwhile, in terms of ones already here, only the first generation tends to be fecund.

Add to that flight of mid to low income people.

[Bisaro TMF]

San Francisco: Will Have less than a 1% black population , will be Majority White and Asian

Oakland: Downtown/Auto Row & West Oakland will be almost completely gentrified. More tech companies moving in from Valley and SF for cheaper rent.

Berkeley: Same

Silicon Valley: More Asian, Tech Spreading out of the area to other bay area cities

Richmond: Same

Antioch/Pittsburg: Worse

Concord: Crime will increase as lower income earners will realize they don't have to go all the way to Pittsburg or Antioch for cheaper housing.

Walnut Creek: More Wealth, More Development, Condo's everywhere will look more and more like Beverly Hills.

San Leandro and Hayward: Same

Redwood city: Same

San Mateo: Same

[PixelatedTherapy]

San Francisco: will be a rich enclave that will resemble the Bay's highest earning suburbs in demography which is White/Asian.

Oakland: will become what San Francisco used to be: a enclave of Liberal politics, while semi ironically pushing low Income people out of the area. Tech companies will move in.

Berkeley: Same, a radically Liberal college town.

Silicon Valley: Will become more Asian, East Palo Alto will Gentrify but basically the same.

Richmond will gentrify as low income people will be pushed out by artists who can't afford SF/Oakland

Antioch/Pittsburg will become the new de facto ghetto of the Bay Area White flight will become rampant, crime will spread into Brentwood and Oakley.

Concord will Gentrify as the Naval station area is developed lower income residents will be pushed to the eastern county fringes.

Walnut Creek will continue to be a wealthy enclave, more development, Asian Population will grow as well.

San Leandro/Hayward Increasing development in this region will occur as Fremont swells to over 250,000 people and Oakland gentrifies.

Redwood City is going to be mostly the same.

San Mateo will have a population and development increase as they are already

[calicoastal]

Originally Posted by rah

Sounds about right, except for the part about losing latinos. Census data shows that the latino/hispanic population has been rising non-stop since the 1940s (along with the asian population). Why would it suddenly stop growing and then start shrinking? And why do you predict that for latinos, but not asians? Sure, it could happen...It just doesn't seem as likely as continued growth for both groups, which is what we've been seeing for over half a century.

It may not decrease but it will shift. The Mission will see a decrease but there will be an increase in Bayview/Hunter's Point probably.

[Chimérique]

Originally Posted by green papaya

Sacramento will become the next OAKLAND, robbery & homicide , gangs, home invasions,etc will go up in Sac.

the poor will be forced out of the SF Bay area.

Very much doubt it, actually, Sacramento will become the next Portland as it already is on it's way.

Sacramento has it's own economy and separate identity apart from the Bay Area, unlike Oakland and Stockton.

Sacramento is getting more expensive too, another reason to keep the rift raft out.

Sacramento gets a larger share of the middle class and affluent from the Bay Area, rather than the low income. Poorer Bay Areans move to Stockton and Fresno.

[rah]

Anyone who claims SF will become an enclave of only rich people must not know SF very well. So the city is going to get rid of rent control, get rid of public housing, get rid of SROs, and get rid of the homeless? Yes indeed, and I sh*t golden sprinkles!

Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly

Well in bound Latino immigration has leveled off and that is probably not a momentary pause. In the typical source countries birthrates have been declining since the 1980s and for the past 10 years its been more or less a plunge in birthrates.

Meanwhile, in terms of ones already here, only the first generation tends to be fecund.

Add to that flight of mid to low income people.

The thing is, all the data we do have for the past several decades, up until now, show the latino population growing nonstop. I just don't see the latino population dropping any time too soon. Maybe in 20 years I guess, but then maybe SF will be 100% French in 20 years...who knows. A lot of things can happen in two decades.

Originally Posted by calicoastal

It may not decrease but it will shift. The Mission will see a decrease but there will be an increase in Bayview/Hunter's Point probably.

This has already been happening for years. The mission has been getting gentrified on some level for like 20+ years now, and the current round of gentrification, complete with extra hipsters/yuppies and extra insane home prices, started around 10 years ago. But the latino population is increasing across much of SF, not just in the Bayview/HP.

[PixelatedTherapy]

Originally Posted by rah

Anyone who claims SF will become an enclave of only rich people must not know SF very well. So the city is going to get rid of rent control, get rid of public housing, get rid of SROs, and get rid of the homeless? Yes indeed, and I sh*t golden sprinkles!



The thing is, all the data we do have for the past several decades, up until now, show the latino population growing nonstop. I just don't see the latino population dropping any time too soon. Maybe in 20 years I guess, but then maybe SF will be 100% French in 20 years...who knows. A lot of things can happen in two decades.



This has already been happening for years. The mission has been getting gentrified on some level for like 20+ years now, and the current round of gentrification, complete with extra hipsters/yuppies and extra insane home prices, started around 10 years ago. But the latino population is increasing across much of SF, not just in the Bayview/HP.

SF Is on Track to Be the Whitest County in the Region By 2040 - The Numbers - Curbed SF

[rah]

Originally Posted by PixelatedTherapy

SF Is on Track to Be the Whitest County in the Region By 2040 - The Numbers - Curbed SF

That "study" is garbage that seems to based on feelings, not data. It's been discussed a lot on various websites, and many people familiar with SF agree that it doesn't sound accurate. Census data shows that SF's white population has been dropping since 1940, while the latino population has been rising nonstop at the same time (which I can confirm anecdotally, as an SF native)...yet that study somehow concludes that the demographic trends of the past 75 years will suddenly reverse? I'm not buying it. Just in case you don't believe me, here are some census stats:

White population in SF:
1940 - 95%
1950 - 89.5%
1960 - 87.6%
1970 - 71.4%
1980 - 59.2%
1990 - 53.6%
2000 - 49.7%
2010 - 48.5%

non-hispanic white population (this category has only been around since 2000):
2000 - 43.6%
2010 - 41.9%

Latino/Hispanic population:
1940 - 1.2%
1950 - 4.1%
1960 - 7.0%
1970 - 9.7%
1980 - 12.4%
1990 - 13.3%
2000 - 14.1%
2010 - 15.1%

But for some reason, this is suddenly going to change? Remember that SF has been gentrifying since the 1970s. It's nothing new, and SF didn't magically start gaining white people and losing minorities back then, or in the 1980s, or the 1990s, or the 2000s, or in 2010, as gentrification continued and intensified...so why are some people so sure it will happen in the future?

[kttam186290]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

Antioch: still Ghetto

Then again, maybe not. As the last semi-affordable part of the East Bay, Antioch-Brentwood-Discovery Bay will pull in quite a few decent people from other parts of the East Bay. I'm talking about people crammed into a Walnut Creek or Pleasanton townhome who want more space and don't mind the drive.

The Section 8 plague that infested Antioch isn't a permanent thing, either. Home owners can opt to end the program at any point in time and, believe it or not, they will. Especially when housing demands go up!

At that point, the ghetto element will have no choice but to up and move. Stockton, Sacramento, Reno...anywhere they are building new homes, they will go!

[Chimérique]

Originally Posted by kttam186290

Then again, maybe not. As the last semi-affordable part of the East Bay, Antioch-Brentwood-Discovery Bay will pull in quite a few decent people from other parts of the East Bay. I'm talking about people crammed into a Walnut Creek or Pleasanton townhome who want more space and don't mind the drive.

The Section 8 plague that infested Antioch isn't a permanent thing, either. Home owners can opt to end the program at any point in time and, believe it or not, they will. Especially when housing demands go up!

At that point, the ghetto element will have no choice but to up and move. Stockton, Sacramento, Reno...anywhere they are building new homes, they will go!

They can't afford Sacramento either, too expensive.