In San Francisco and Rooting for a Tech Comeuppance (San Jose: lease, condos)

[HappyinCali]

Originally Posted by Perma Bear

Government employees will still laugh all the way to the bank.

Yep, but we who pay your salaries, need jobs, so we can keep paying you. The government always jams the citizens first. Like in 2008-9, when we were getting IOUs for tax returns, but the government workers were getting their salaries.

[Oakformonday]

Originally Posted by HappyinCali

That's the big thing people miss. They think that if Tech implodes, all these new restaurants and services where blue collar people work will magically stay as they are, so they will keep their income, but rents will be lower.

If tech collapses, there is a good chances, a lot of these stores and restaurants will, as well.

I am really baffled by all the people wishing for failure. If you want to live in a cheap, failed city, move to detroit. You can buy a single-family house there for $5k+back taxes.

I want to live in a city that is doing well, it is growing and has low unemployment.

Yes, I have a difficult time understanding why so many are rooting for a economic collapse in the tech industry. They must not realize that it will effect everyone. If tax coffers go down, services go down, money for affordable housing disappears, service jobs are eliminated... I honestly don't think some people are thinking this through! Housing prices will go down but it still will be unaffordable. Rents - same thing. I'm not in the tech industry but "it ain't going nowheres."

I see the activists in Oakland making the same errors as the activists in SF did. The coming correction will slow it down but even Oakland is going to just be an extension of SF in, what, 10 years??? The population is being replaced quite rapidly. Those poor POC ain't coming back...

[Perma Bear]

Originally Posted by HappyinCali

Yep, but we who pay your salaries, need jobs, so we can keep paying you. The government always jams the citizens first. Like in 2008-9, when we were getting IOUs for tax returns, but the government workers were getting their salaries.

State and federal employees have other sources of funding. Oh and the Bay Area had an economy before transistors existed. We'd survive, just have sane values for housing.

[HappyinCali]

Originally Posted by Perma Bear

State and federal employees have other sources of funding. Oh and the Bay Area had an economy before transistors existed. We'd survive, just have sane values for housing.

What other sources of funding other than taxes and fees do you have?

According to this, you don't http://www.lao.ca.gov/handouts/local...ies-022315.pdf

[HappyinCali]

Originally Posted by Oakformonday

Yes, I have a difficult time understanding why so many are rooting for a economic collapse in the tech industry. They must not realize that it will effect everyone. If tax coffers go down, services go down, money for affordable housing disappears, service jobs are eliminated... I honestly don't think some people are thinking this through! Housing prices will go down but it still will be unaffordable. Rents - same thing. I'm not in the tech industry but "it ain't going nowheres."

I see the activists in Oakland making the same errors as the activists in SF did. The coming correction will slow it down but even Oakland is going to just be an extension of SF in, what, 10 years??? The population is being replaced quite rapidly. Those poor POC ain't coming back...

Exactly!!! People complain that they are not enough services with a tech-bloated $9 bn city budget for SF. Can you imagine how many services there would be with a $6 bn budget?

I am amazed by how many people don't understand basic economics. The rich will still be rich when tech collapses. The people that will get jammed are the techies making $130k and then #### will keep flowing downhill, as it always does.

[TheFlats]

Originally Posted by MountainHi

Too much growth. Unplanned growth. Some of the tech growth needs to be spread around to other locations. Portland? Sacramento? The Great Lakes area?

We'd love some offices in Sac. Apple, HP and Intel have been good to the local economy, and we always lament seeing tech jobs flee the bay for lower cost inland metros and skip over Sacramento.

Yeah you have the same California taxes and regulations (which are overblown) but you can pay employees 20K less/year and leasing costs are a quarter of SF/SV. Plus the mucky mucks can still ride the train up here to check on their employees and be back in time for dinner and to tuck the kiddos into bed.

And it strengthens the Northern Californian economy. Hell, Stockton should be getting some tech love. Might as well keep it in the region instead of parceling out all the tech jobs to LA/NY/Sea/Austin and risk losing the comparative advantage of having all those tech minded brains clustered in one area.

[cardinal2007]

Originally Posted by Perma Bear

Government employees will still laugh all the way to the bank.

That might be true in SF, but other cities like Vallejo and Stockton filed bankruptcy, San Jose slashed a lot of costs and pass a controversial measure B to reduce pension costs. So while working for SF which is a rich city may be solid, if you work for Oakland, SJ, Alameda Co, or Santa Clara Co, I wouldn't count on your job being solid in case of a recession.

[JohnS_15]

Originally Posted by Perma Bear

Government employees will still laugh all the way to the bank.

I understand you are frustrated with the housing costs in the bay area but an event that causes recession/depression like the collapse of major industry like technology would have massive repercussions for everyone including government. I work for the government too - last recession we were all on mandatory furloughs and got pay cuts and now salary increases have been all but abolished. Retirements benefits get weaker and weaker each contract negotiation. I wouldn't count on being too safe if the **** hits the fan with the economy. Cut backs and privatization of government jobs is always a possibility.

Originally Posted by MountainHi

Too much growth. Unplanned growth. Some of the tech growth needs to be spread around to other locations. Portland? Sacramento? The Great Lakes area?

I definitely agree with this... the tech growth really needs to be spread around more - they keep piling more and more jobs into SV/SF. It's not sustainable - eventually as the current crop of young single workers will be getting married and having families and want to own homes... there will be a pull away from this area. I also think that all this technology that they are creating will help... more and more people will be working remotely and coming into a main office hub less and less. I mean it's already happening which is why desirable areas of Sacramento have also seen competition for housing and increased rents.

[WizardOfRadical]

Originally Posted by Perma Bear

Government employees will still laugh all the way to the bank.

Where do people get this delusional mindset that government employees are rich?

[WizardOfRadical]

Originally Posted by TheFlats

We'd love some offices in Sac. Apple, HP and Intel have been good to the local economy, and we always lament seeing tech jobs flee the bay for lower cost inland metros and skip over Sacramento.

Yeah you have the same California taxes and regulations (which are overblown) but you can pay employees 20K less/year and leasing costs are a quarter of SF/SV. Plus the mucky mucks can still ride the train up here to check on their employees and be back in time for dinner and to tuck the kiddos into bed.

And it strengthens the Northern Californian economy. Hell, Stockton should be getting some tech love. Might as well keep it in the region instead of parceling out all the tech jobs to LA/NY/Sea/Austin and risk losing the comparative advantage of having all those tech minded brains clustered in one area.

It's not the cost of land that causes companies to set up operations outside of Silicon Valley. It is the taxes and labor costs. Leasing/owning is a real small part of the equation.

So it is pointless to move to the Valley. That's why at the Apple facility in Elk Grove, it is primarily warehousing for products being shipped, a call center for customer service, and a repairs.