531k jobs created, 94k housing units created: Bay Area, last 5 years

[shooting4life]

Everyone wants to end carve outs, loop holes and deductions that give one citizen an advantage over another citizen unless they are the one losing the crave out, loop hole or deduction.

[Perma Bear]

Prop 13 is the only thing stopping this place from becoming Elysium on Earth.

[Ultrarunner]

It's not a carve out if it applies equally...

Think about it... every taxable purchase is based on the value at the time of purchase...

Using anything other than this is guesswork... by definition Real Estate is unique and who wants to spend a lifetime filing appeals?

I have never lost an appeal... the way it works is the Assessor collects a fee simply to "Process" an appeal... the full tax is due as billed and the Assessor/Appeal's Board has 2 years to make a decision...

Prop 13 came about because of double digit tax increases, corruption in the Assessor Office with prison and suicides and the enormous volume of tax code that was replaced by a few simply easy to understand paragraphs... Democrat Governor Jerry Brown has repeatedly stated it is settled law.

The legislature failed to act... a simple indexing of the Home Owner Exemption for inflation would have prevented passage... the politicians left it to the voters and the voters decided.

I was too young to vote at the time but am thankful for it's passage because it provides a little stability and protection.

[basehead617]

I think a lot of the affordable housing nonsense is sour grapes from people that want to be able to continue to live where they grew up and have their fond childhood memories. Sorry, but nobody ever promised you a rose garden.

That said, I do think there is (very) long-term downward pressure on SF real estate. There is a huge amount of housing tied up in rent control places and homes bought decades ago. People talk about SF as being very rich but that is ONLY the most recent homeowners. The median income of the city tells you all you need to know. It's quite low. There is a lot of demand but there will never be enough demand for ALL the housing that exists. I think there will also be downward pressure as the well to do young generation starts families (finally in their mid 30s when they're tired of ubering home drunk from the mission for the 500th time) and they realize the city doesn't mesh well with their goals (due to poor education, crime, etc.)

Besides, if you're friends with realtors you know where the real price pressure comes from. Foreign money and sight unseen investors, not tech money. The rest of the world has nearly run out of people that still need to park their dirty money here, so that's gonna stop. A huge amount of that was the Chinese getting money out the door before their market crashed. Same with Russia.

The ones caveat which is hard to foresee accurately.. is how many current aging families will leave their kids their house, and so on and so on. Someone mentioned it above. It's not always the kids choice to be able to stay put though. Unless you inherited enough that you don't need to work.

[Perma Bear]

Originally Posted by basehead617

I think a lot of the affordable housing nonsense is sour grapes from people that want to be able to continue to live where they grew up and have their fond childhood memories. Sorry, but nobody ever promised you a rose garden.

That said, I do think there is (very) long-term downward pressure on SF real estate. There is a huge amount of housing tied up in rent control places and homes bought decades ago. People talk about SF as being very rich but that is ONLY the most recent homeowners. The median income of the city tells you all you need to know. It's quite low. There is a lot of demand but there will never be enough demand for ALL the housing that exists. I think there will also be downward pressure as the well to do young generation starts families (finally in their mid 30s when they're tired of ubering home drunk from the mission for the 500th time) and they realize the city doesn't mesh well with their goals (due to poor education, crime, etc.)

Besides, if you're friends with realtors you know where the real price pressure comes from. Foreign money and sight unseen investors, not tech money. The rest of the world has nearly run out of people that still need to park their dirty money here, so that's gonna stop. A huge amount of that was the Chinese getting money out the door before their market crashed. Same with Russia.

The ones caveat which is hard to foresee accurately.. is how many current aging families will leave their kids their house, and so on and so on. Someone mentioned it above. It's not always the kids choice to be able to stay put though. Unless you inherited enough that you don't need to work.

If you inherit 1 Bay Area house you never need to work again. You can just rent it out and live anywhere else in the country. If you inherit more than one property or a duplex+ you can live off the second income and stay put.

[Ultrarunner]

I have a 650 square foot house in East Oakland and it rents for $750 per month... seriously doubt I can live anywhere in the country on $750 per month...

[Perma Bear]

Originally Posted by Ultrarunner

I have a 650 square foot house in East Oakland and it rents for $750 per month... seriously doubt I can live anywhere in the country on $750 per month...

Bad neighborhood? Oh wait you're not charging market rate! Right!

[Ultrarunner]

Originally Posted by Perma Bear

Bad neighborhood?

Zip Code 94603

Home value went from $11,500 in 1984 to $200,000 in 2007 and then to $55,000 in 2009.

Since I moved I have only had two families renting... very stable and no problems.

[Perma Bear]

Originally Posted by Ultrarunner

Zip Code 94603

Home value went from $11,500 in 1984 to $200,000 in 2007 and then to $55,000 in 2009.

Since I moved I have only had two families renting... very stable and no problems.

Bet it's more now

[Ultrarunner]

Originally Posted by Perma Bear

Bet it's more now

Redfin 176k

Zillow 196k