Possible real estate areas to speculate in? Where should I buy with possible potential?

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by jade408

This is 1/2 mile from BART, near the "main street" of SL. Older, cheaper, easy to rent!

56 Chumalia St, San Leandro, CA 94577 | MLS #40759454 | Zillow

$425k for this dump?! And it's in San Leandro too.

[twohandfloater]

Originally Posted by jk88cal

Speculation? Potential? Obviously impossible to say.

Since you plan to rent, you have to look at appreciation vs income.

My take is peninsula and south bay are more desirable. But that is already reflected in the current price. If you want more value (relatively), then east bay in general has lower price so better value today.

In terms appreciation, I'd still think the more desirable and better neighborhood will have more appreciation, even if their current prices are high. This is based on my observation in the past 20+ years of bay area real estate. Therefore for appreciation, I would buy a small place in better location than a large/newer house in less desirable location.

In terms of income, you have to make the calculations. Depending on the house, # of rooms, and how you rent, the income can vary a lot.

With that said, the newer homes in San Leandro would not be on my list. Because it will not be high on the appreciation list. I would start with the affordable crappiest house you can live with, then go down the list: peninsula, south bay, Oakland, Fremont, then Hayward.

I work in tech (in SF) and grew up in the bay area, so this would be just a house to live in and a long term investment, as I don't plan on leaving the bay area. With that being said, I can't find anything in the peninsula under 900k and south bay is just too damn far from SF. Is lower oakland/hayward an okay area to buy for long term value? I heard hayward/castro valley/fremont area would be the first to get hit once there's a recession.

[jade408]

I wouldn't buy in east Oakland, because as I mentioned in a previous thread, the spots appreciating the most in Oakland are those in walkable areas near transit. If you compare price trajectory across Oakland you'll find that the spots that were super desirable in the early 2000s haven't changed much in price, and the cheaper areas within about a mile of BART have basically doubled or more.

East Oakland is a very very long term investment. Particularly if current trends hold up.

Better to speculate on the International Blvd corridor, because that is seeing new investment in the next 12-36 months. The rest is very uncertain. I don't see Hayward appreciating much at all. Castro Valley likely won't appreciate much but it is attractive for families.

[Ruth4Truth]

I don't see why Fremont would get hit first during a recession. There are a lot of people working in San Jose there, and on the Peninsula. There are couples where both work in tech. That seems pretty stable to me. That area's going to remain in demand, IMO. The proximity to the bridge makes Fremont/Union City/Newark a convenient lower-cost option to people with jobs on the Peninsula.

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth

I don't see why Fremont would get hit first during a recession. There are a lot of people working in San Jose there, and on the Peninsula. There are couples where both work in tech. That seems pretty stable to me. That area's going to remain in demand, IMO. The proximity to the bridge makes Fremont/Union City/Newark a convenient lower-cost option to people with jobs on the Peninsula.

When the next recession hits, everrywhere will get hit including San Francisco.

[Ruth4Truth]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

When the next recession hits, everrywhere will get hit including San Francisco.

Of course, but my point was, why would the OP single out Fremont, along with Hayward and Castro Valley? Did you read the post I was responding to? Context is everything.

[jk88cal]

Originally Posted by Ruth4Truth

I don't see why Fremont would get hit first during a recession. There are a lot of people working in San Jose there, and on the Peninsula. There are couples where both work in tech. That seems pretty stable to me. That area's going to remain in demand, IMO. The proximity to the bridge makes Fremont/Union City/Newark a convenient lower-cost option to people with jobs on the Peninsula.

If recession hits, yes, prices will drop everywhere. Cannot predict the future, but based on previous recessions... Peninsula will likely drop later/slower than east bay. Then during recovery, peninsula will likely recover faster/strong than east bay.