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Old 08-11-2017, 06:28 PM
Status: "Bye Bye Warriors" (set 11 days ago)
 
Location: where the good looking people are
3,562 posts, read 2,582,921 times
Reputation: 2983

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Quote:
Originally Posted by phantompilot View Post
I agree but it seems fairly clear that gentrification is underway. Perhaps a solid buying opportunity for the right investors (not me, I'm basically done with CA real estate and the only way I'd ever buy anything here again is just a short term flip project).

I do keep my eye out for flips and I have to say most of the likely looking properties are in Contra Costa County. I have seen a few real gems recently - where you could clear 100K in 60 days if you knew what you were doing.
Gentrification is not underway in those slumburbs. It's just a boom market, prices are up everywhere.

Real Estate is horrible short term investment, that's what the stock market is for.
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Old 08-11-2017, 06:43 PM
 
5,908 posts, read 2,021,666 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WizardOfRadical View Post
Gentrification is not underway in those slumburbs. It's just a boom market, prices are up everywhere.

Real Estate is horrible short term investment, that's what the stock market is for.
I agree that RE isn't a good investment, normally. Except for flips.

But gentrification is definitely happening in many areas in those cities you mentioned. People moving in have greater financial resources than the prior residents, more education, more disposable income going into the community and into the infrastructure, the tax base is increasing - it may not be impressive yet, or even that noticeable to outsiders, but its certainly going on.
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Old 08-11-2017, 07:16 PM
Status: "Bye Bye Warriors" (set 11 days ago)
 
Location: where the good looking people are
3,562 posts, read 2,582,921 times
Reputation: 2983
Quote:
Originally Posted by phantompilot View Post
I agree that RE isn't a good investment, normally. Except for flips.

But gentrification is definitely happening in many areas in those cities you mentioned. People moving in have greater financial resources than the prior residents, more education, more disposable income going into the community and into the infrastructure, the tax base is increasing - it may not be impressive yet, or even that noticeable to outsiders, but its certainly going on.
That's happeninh in Oakland, Sacramento, DTLA, and other urban centers.

Concord, Antioch, Bay Point is the reverse. The slumification of suburbia.

The poors are pushed to the suburban hinterlands. Concord had a few nice areas, but it is mostly a ratty 1970's burg, in a clear state of decay.

Pretty crazy as WC and PC are next door and not as bad (lame and bland as they may be). The awful tract housing stock and sub par schools will hinder any gentrification there. San Leandro will probably have better long term potential than Concord, as bay area commuters increasingly become on wits end.
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Old 08-11-2017, 07:23 PM
 
5,908 posts, read 2,021,666 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WizardOfRadical View Post
That's happeninh in Oakland, Sacramento, DTLA, and other urban centers.

Concord, Antioch, Bay Point is the reverse. The slumification of suburbia.

The poors are pushed to the suburban hinterlands. Concord had a few nice areas, but it is mostly a ratty 1970's burg, in a clear state of decay.

Pretty crazy as WC and PC are next door and not as bad (lame and bland as they may be). The awful tract housing stock and sub par schools will hinder any gentrification there. San Leandro will probably have better long term potential than Concord, as bay area commuters increasingly become on wits end.
I don't think that's true. The data says Concord and Antioch are improving not sure about Bay Point but I'd imagine its going to follow the trend soon enough if its not already.

I used to work in Concord and can see the improvements from then (about 15 years ago) to now, its visibly better in many areas.

The ratty areas are now smaller and are less ratty than they were even ten years ago.

That's the very definition of gentrification.

Much like you can see in parts of Oakland, even the dreaded "east oakland" is getting better , which is amazing.
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Old 08-11-2017, 07:40 PM
Status: "Bye Bye Warriors" (set 11 days ago)
 
Location: where the good looking people are
3,562 posts, read 2,582,921 times
Reputation: 2983
Quote:
Originally Posted by phantompilot View Post
I don't think that's true. The data says Concord and Antioch are improving not sure about Bay Point but I'd imagine its going to follow the trend soon enough if its not already.

I used to work in Concord and can see the improvements from then (about 15 years ago) to now, its visibly better in many areas.

The ratty areas are now smaller and are less ratty than they were even ten years ago.

That's the very definition of gentrification.

Much like you can see in parts of Oakland, even the dreaded "east oakland" is getting better , which is amazing.
Disagree. I wad just in Concord a year. Took a back road from Pittsburg into Concord. It looked just as dumpy as I remember. Properties filled with garbage, tweakers on meth, stray pitbulls. If you adjust for inflation, Concord is actually less affluent than it was 15 years ago. It is not getting better.It's the same as it was 30 years ago: Last stop before making the plunge into the delta suburbs. Except home prices are even higher, while residents' purchasing power has declined.
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Old 08-11-2017, 09:53 PM
 
5,908 posts, read 2,021,666 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WizardOfRadical View Post
Disagree. I wad just in Concord a year. Took a back road from Pittsburg into Concord. It looked just as dumpy as I remember. Properties filled with garbage, tweakers on meth, stray pitbulls. If you adjust for inflation, Concord is actually less affluent than it was 15 years ago. It is not getting better.It's the same as it was 30 years ago: Last stop before making the plunge into the delta suburbs. Except home prices are even higher, while residents' purchasing power has declined.
That's because Pittsburgh has been kinda a dump so yah, that border area sucks too.

But eventually even that part will gentrify. Those worst areas of course are going to be the last to improve, which is the same pattern in all suburbs. The crappiest and worst neighborhoods have the most staying power because they have the highest momentum of crappiness. The worst residents, ones nobody wants to live next too, for example. So their street will suck until they croak or are evicted or finally move away.

That's exactly the same as many south bay communities that are now considered desirable and have basically been purged of the lowlifes that were always dragging it down.

Major swaths of Sunnyvale for example. And the worst areas - still are garbage because of who lives there. So until those people are moved out, and their little rat trap houses razed and rebuilt as "mini mansions", they will continue to suck. But it will happen, just like it happened to the rest of the formerly crap areas.

Alviso is going thru this right now. If there was anyplace more desperate and distasteful than Milpitas (which was widely regarded as a dump), it was Alviso, which actually WAS an actual dump at one point.
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Old 08-11-2017, 10:07 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
31,046 posts, read 13,584,112 times
Reputation: 22125
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZJD View Post
Still beats paying $3,500/mo to live in Brentwood 😁
You don't have to pay $3500 to rent a house in Brentwood

4/3 Brentwood 2630 sq ft $2600 https://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa...219721911.html

5/3 Brentwood 2939 sq ft $2690 https://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa...258436629.html

4/2 Brentwood $2250 https://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa...257363718.html

4/2.5 Brentwood $2200 https://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/apa...259545944.html
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Old 08-11-2017, 10:14 PM
 
Location: Living rent free in your head
31,046 posts, read 13,584,112 times
Reputation: 22125
Quote:
Originally Posted by WizardOfRadical View Post
Disagree. I wad just in Concord a year. Took a back road from Pittsburg into Concord. It looked just as dumpy as I remember. Properties filled with garbage, tweakers on meth, stray pitbulls. If you adjust for inflation, Concord is actually less affluent than it was 15 years ago. It is not getting better.It's the same as it was 30 years ago: Last stop before making the plunge into the delta suburbs. Except home prices are even higher, while residents' purchasing power has declined.
I hate to agree with you (J/K) but I think you nailed it here. ^
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Old 08-13-2017, 02:24 PM
 
Location: San Francisco Bay Area, California
521 posts, read 479,367 times
Reputation: 608
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZJD View Post
Easy.

Move to Arizona where the weather is similar to far East Bay.
Antioch is the hottest city in the far East Bay, and its summers are mild compared to AZ. These are the temps.
Sun
Sunny
8862
Mon
Partly Cloudy
7958
Tue
Sunny
8658
Wed
Sunny
8960
Thu
Sunny
9162
Fri
Sunny
9061
Sat
Sunny
8759
Sun
Sunny
8559
https://www.google.com/search?q=anti...hrome&ie=UTF-8

Here's Scottsdale:

Sun
Mostly Sunny
10184
Mon
Partly Cloudy
10481
Tue
Mostly Sunny
10278
Wed
Sunny
10379
Thu
Sunny
10581
Fri
Sunny
10782
Sat
Sunny
10783
Sun
Partly Cloudy
10382

https://www.google.com/search?q=scot...48.PZT9Da0Nnak

So no, they're not similar.
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Old 08-16-2017, 12:41 PM
Status: "Bye Bye Warriors" (set 11 days ago)
 
Location: where the good looking people are
3,562 posts, read 2,582,921 times
Reputation: 2983
Quote:
Originally Posted by 2sleepy View Post
I hate to agree with you (J/K) but I think you nailed it here. ^
Exactly.

Life is too short to live in Concord.

Better to live closer to job centers at that price.

Or move out to Brentwood, where quality people are.
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