Home prices still too high. (Oakland, San Mateo: 2011, foreclosure, mortgage)

[jaynetarzana]

This was from a month ago, but I found the data interesting: Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Still in Apparent Near-Freefall | Redfin Bay Area Sweet Digs

[aslowdodge]

Originally Posted by jaynetarzana

This was from a month ago, but I found the data interesting: Case-Shiller: Bay Area Home Prices Still in Apparent Near-Freefall | Redfin Bay Area Sweet Digs

I think this is a bit misleading. Some areas like Brentwood have dropped a huge amount. The 2 homes I sold in Pleasanton are still worth 80% their highest value. It depends on the area. The cheapest single family home I've seen in Pleasanton is still $500K.

[clongirl]

Originally Posted by aslowdodge

I think this is a bit misleading. Some areas like Brentwood have dropped a huge amount. The 2 homes I sold in Pleasanton are still worth 80% their highest value. It depends on the area. The cheapest single family home I've seen in Pleasanton is still $500K.

Spoken like a true realtor! Nice that some professions still look at the bright side.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...JFHB.DTL&tsp=1

[Ultrarunner]

Originally Posted by clongirl

Spoken like a true realtor! Nice that some professions still look at the bright side.

Signs of more trouble ahead for housing market

I'm not a Realtor and have seen several close in the last 60 days and about a dozen go pending...

If property is still Free Falling, why are some homes selling?

Traditionally, Thanksgiving through mid March are slack times in my parts... Spring and Summer is when things get busy...

Few people choose to move around the Holidays and those with school age children are less likely to move during the school year.

[jaynetarzana]

This article makes so much sense to me - thanks for posting clongirl. This statement was what I found to be most interesting from the article "Two categories of loans used for higher-end homes are emerging as the next trouble spots, as foreclosure contagion spreads beyond subprime. Delinquencies are rising for Alt-A loans given to people with good credit who could not document their income. Meanwhile, millions of option ARMs, or adjustable rate mortgages in which borrowers can choose to start off making minimum payments that don't even cover the interest, are expected to start resetting next summer. At reset, borrowers suddenly must make sharply higher payments, which can trigger foreclosures."

This is saying that there is a large negative factor that is not even going to start affecting the market until next summer!

[clongirl]

Originally Posted by Ultrarunner

I'm not a Realtor and have seen several close in the last 60 days and about a dozen go pending...

If property is still Free Falling, why are some homes selling?

Traditionally, Thanksgiving through mid March are slack times in my parts... Spring and Summer is when things get busy...

Few people choose to move around the Holidays and those with school age children are less likely to move during the school year.

I believe you just answered your own question...it's the spring and summer buying season. Perhaps comparing this year's buying season to the buying season 3yrs ago (during the bubble) we might get a better picture of how many people are actually buying.

I also think that many people are under the impression that this is the "bottom" and have heard for soooo long from realtors and other "experts" that if they don't purchase right now, then the prices will only go up.

Of course I don't have all the answers. I am using my own personal experiences and watching/obsessing for the past 13 yrs or so over the Bay Area property market. I guess I am still a "traditionalist" of sorts and believe that prices must be no greater than 3-4 times of the median income for the area.

I know an awful lot of people/relatives all over the Bay Area and Sacramento and haven't encountered very many people that aren't cutting back or worried about losing their jobs. I also don't know anyone getting any raises either.

I'll ask you this..how many people do you know that can still afford to purchase a 1 million dollar house or have the 200k to put down AND be able to pay that property tax, and insurance on the million dollar home every month? I don't know any, and I live in an area with million dollar homes. I've started getting e-mails from parents at my kid's schools (that I don't even know) advertising their businesses. This alone tells me a lot about the economic situation in my "upper income" area.

[Ultrarunner]

Actually quite a few... and two that have in the last 90 days... but my colleagues may not typical since they are all Hospital/Medical related.

Wages have been frozen, 401k matches gone 3 years and 10% across the board reductions for staff...

Doctors are still, by and large doing well as are Administrators...

By the way, one purchase was a "Fixer" in Piedmont for 1.2M and the other sold a very nice Kensington Home to buy a 1.5m property in Orinda... both were in part motivated by the Public Schools in each city.

If a person can buy for somewhere near the cost of renting and say 25% more... it still makes sense. That is the reason I bought my first home while still in school on 92nd Ave... It cost the same as renting when all was said and done.

So many bought on speculation and these are the ones getting creamed... I heard so many times that today's high price is tomorrow's bargain

I know I was not able to qualify for a mortgage even with 20% down and no bad credit and working... because the lender wanted 3 years of income in my field and I didn't have it.

What you say is true... I know the cashier at one of the Hardware Stores I patronize bought 3 homes and now has lost all 3... A friend that works at Safeway bought 4 homes and lost all but the Condo he lives in and is considering walking away because he owes more than it's worth...

Two of the homes I sold have been foreclosed and I couldn't understand why? The reason is they had each been refinanced several times and the owners decided to walk... each would have had equity if they had not pulled cash out...

[BayAreaHillbilly]

In the hills of mid San Mateo County (San Carlos, Belmont, Western San Mateo) there is still barely anything much under a mil. Still some above a mil, many in the 850 - upper 900s. There seems to be overall support, even for completely trashed places, at some level above 700K.

[Michael Tryn]

You are right ! One could say the same for any city ! If one bought 50 yrs ago, one made out. I wish to say some of the postings here give a false impression of things. For example "How many couples are making the $200 grand/yr. one poster gave in an example" ? Give us a break. Maybe 1 in 10 K ? That almost wipes out 90% of the so called minorities from living there. And I may get a flag on this question but , "Who takes out the garbage in Santa Barbara or S.F. " If one can't live there on less than $100 grand a yr wages ? I can't imagine the common folk making min. $75k /yr with Calif. bankrupt. My wife wants to move there but we are not one of "the privilaged" !

[BayAreaHillbilly]

Here the garbage crews consist of guys in their 20s, 2 per truck, one drives the truck and operates the compactor, the other literally runs down the street with a 75 gallon steel can on wheels, dumping 2 -3 customers' cans into it then into the truck - they are clearly assessed based on speed. I imagine they live in crummy apartments and as soon as they get a bit older, either go on to another career, get promoted or leave the area.